tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post2219685468703179471..comments2023-05-18T04:38:10.674-05:00Comments on Winnipeg Weather: Hot; Storm Chancesjjcwpghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-50716694109707722772014-08-09T23:03:38.088-05:002014-08-09T23:03:38.088-05:00Either way, we're getting a nice light show!!Either way, we're getting a nice light show!! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-19936293457815130622014-08-09T22:41:50.183-05:002014-08-09T22:41:50.183-05:00Cell moving towards the city is strengthening in l...Cell moving towards the city is strengthening in latest radar runs. However, it may collapse like what the other storms have been doing so far today. Wait and see...jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-30537748887876137522014-08-09T22:23:20.438-05:002014-08-09T22:23:20.438-05:00Hard to say if it's really weakening or not. T...Hard to say if it's really weakening or not. There might be a bit of attenuation from the cell directly south of the radar site. There's still lots of lightning from it according to lightning detection. We'll see how the next few runs trend.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-81089673467257695092014-08-09T22:18:35.713-05:002014-08-09T22:18:35.713-05:00I think i'm going to head out to the west or n...I think i'm going to head out to the west or north west perimeter to get a good light show. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-5042908393283063152014-08-09T22:09:25.036-05:002014-08-09T22:09:25.036-05:00Thats fine, haven't noticed anything with mine...Thats fine, haven't noticed anything with mine.<br /><br />As far as the storms... have also been seeing strikes to the west, and lighting detection & radar indicate that "that cell west of Portage" lifting north, and thus probably not giving us anything. Cell used to continue south of portage (or maybe another, can't really tell) , but that's since melted away. Looks like the perimeter are in action today, wouldn't really expect anything more, but I pray and I pray.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-54655548052697453112014-08-09T21:50:08.117-05:002014-08-09T21:50:08.117-05:00I apologize if your comments don't come up imm...I apologize if your comments don't come up immediately. For some reason, blogger is putting them into spam without my consent right now so I have to manually accept them for the time being. Hopefully this doesn't last.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-22476746041423834792014-08-09T21:36:16.786-05:002014-08-09T21:36:16.786-05:00Just saw a quick flash of lighting looking west. T...Just saw a quick flash of lighting looking west. Thats hopeful..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-89631284823068975992014-08-09T20:30:25.547-05:002014-08-09T20:30:25.547-05:00Yeah, very pulsy. A few cells develop then weaken ...Yeah, very pulsy. A few cells develop then weaken and others soon develop afterwards. Definitely possible we get nothing if things pop up all around us and miss us.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-58048679184112446072014-08-09T20:23:12.651-05:002014-08-09T20:23:12.651-05:00Yeah, I agree, looks like that cell west of portag...Yeah, I agree, looks like that cell west of portage has the best chance of hitting us. But don't get your hopes up at all, as previously mentioned there is very low shear, so it would half to keep marching westword for along time; not many storms have done that today. We'll see only time will tell...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-11026909966718995232014-08-09T20:13:37.877-05:002014-08-09T20:13:37.877-05:00Only got to 28.7°C at the airport today. Still loo...Only got to 28.7°C at the airport today. Still looking good for something in Winnipeg later this evening. Certainly doesn't look like we'll get anything very strong, but the slow-moving nature of the storms could dump some high rainfall amounts locally. Hail and wind don't look like major threats at this time. Some small hail may fall in the heaviest storms, but nothing major expected. Unfortunately, storms are pulsy in nature and are struggling to organise given the lack of shear.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-77940248530190914472014-08-09T17:38:10.529-05:002014-08-09T17:38:10.529-05:00In fact, I'm liking how things are looking for...In fact, I'm liking how things are looking for Winnipeg at this point. We've got a very good chance of seeing at least SOMETHING later this evening. Heavy rains under slow-moving storms will be the main threat.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-45038868497235428102014-08-09T16:48:00.312-05:002014-08-09T16:48:00.312-05:00Thankfully, it's not over yet. Redevelopment w...Thankfully, it's not over yet. Redevelopment will continue to be possible through the evening. Already seeing some just south of the border and east of Brandon. jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-76837817738948655602014-08-09T16:41:20.009-05:002014-08-09T16:41:20.009-05:00yeah, looking even worse now. all the action is ge...yeah, looking even worse now. all the action is getting fired up in to the interlake. I doubt we get any thing. god dammit all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-49017571513881236892014-08-09T15:46:16.181-05:002014-08-09T15:46:16.181-05:00Storms in southwestern Manitoba not overly impress...Storms in southwestern Manitoba not overly impressive so far. Looks like gusty winds and some localized pockets of small to marginally-severe hail. Not surprising given the lack of shear today.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-86908994123552595512014-08-09T14:21:26.085-05:002014-08-09T14:21:26.085-05:00In their 2 PM update, the PASPC FOCN 45 discussion...In their 2 PM update, the PASPC FOCN 45 discussion mentions the storms moving thru Winnipeg around midnight then will gradually weaken thereafter so we'll see.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-3393533893301683942014-08-09T14:18:06.859-05:002014-08-09T14:18:06.859-05:00Moisture is deep in Winnipeg....RH is between 75%-...Moisture is deep in Winnipeg....RH is between 75%-95% between 950 and 800mb. Shear is lacking meaning storms if any that is, moves over us will be very slow movers which equals to heavy rains.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-11302718469977921472014-08-09T13:32:32.760-05:002014-08-09T13:32:32.760-05:00Should note that there could be a few pop-up thund...Should note that there could be a few pop-up thunderstorms ahead of the front in the RRV and southeastern Manitoba this afternoon as well, but much more isolated in nature. jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-55596299450052204412014-08-09T13:29:03.273-05:002014-08-09T13:29:03.273-05:00New update to the thundercast. I'll be updatin...New update to the thundercast. I'll be updating a bit more regularly than usual today.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-32438807304356486182014-08-09T12:57:44.761-05:002014-08-09T12:57:44.761-05:00I'm calling for something more around 22-23°C,...I'm calling for something more around 22-23°C, but it will depend somewhat on how much sunshine there is in the afternoon. 24°c possible if we see more sun than cloud.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-85797479824705206452014-08-09T12:43:18.698-05:002014-08-09T12:43:18.698-05:00JJ, do you think the forecast high of 24 or 25 C f...JJ, do you think the forecast high of 24 or 25 C from E.C. for tomorrow is a bit too optimistic?<br /><br />Thanks, AnonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-80132755258758568912014-08-09T11:34:22.961-05:002014-08-09T11:34:22.961-05:00After this little cool down early week, things war...After this little cool down early week, things warmup back closer to seasonal or even a bit above for the remainder of the week into next weekend. Hard to say what will occur after that, models aren't agreeing at this time. I think we'll continue to see conditions fairly close to normal for the next couple weeks in general.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-66978872417536240252014-08-09T11:18:01.577-05:002014-08-09T11:18:01.577-05:00Yeah, I agree. JJ, are you seeing any hints of coo...Yeah, I agree. JJ, are you seeing any hints of cooldowns in the long range over the next couple of weeks?<br /><br />Thanks, Anon<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-80313450202899913922014-08-09T11:00:10.440-05:002014-08-09T11:00:10.440-05:00I sure hope so... I'm just hoping it doesn'...I sure hope so... I'm just hoping it doesn't weaken or dissipate too much before reaching here.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-74082980359634464452014-08-09T10:53:35.461-05:002014-08-09T10:53:35.461-05:00Severe Thunderstorm Watch now in place for much of...Severe Thunderstorm Watch now in place for much of Southern MB except for the RRV and the Southeast for now. E.C. does elude to the fact that an MCS type system will move in in the RRV overnight in their FOCN 45 weather Discussion.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-73217501626322915372014-08-09T09:36:17.410-05:002014-08-09T09:36:17.410-05:00Unfortunately, nothing materialised overnight arou...Unfortunately, nothing materialised overnight around here. Everything stayed in the Interlake and southwestern Manitoba. <br /><br />One last hot and humid day before things cool down. I think we've got a good shot at 30°C today. Humidex values will be in the mid to high 30's.<br /><br />Main risk for thunderstorms will be this evening and overnight for us as the cold front pushes through. It's quite uncertain at this time if Winnipeg will even get anything. A very significant lack of shear with today's setup in southern Manitoba is a major concern, especially the further south you go. Shear is a little better to the north in the Parklands and Interlake, so I think that will be the area with a higher chance for a more widespread severe event. I'm very hesitant to issue a slight severe risk, so I've only got an isolated severe risk in my thundercast for now but may reissue a slight risk later this morning or early this afternoon once I relook at things. There is the potential that storm may weaken substantially before reaching the RRV, thus, the uncertainty of wether we'll get anything here or not.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.com