tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post4802651360897151133..comments2023-05-18T04:38:10.674-05:00Comments on Winnipeg Weather: March to August Temperature Forecast Evaluationjjcwpghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-86039246446695697162014-08-27T23:50:05.744-05:002014-08-27T23:50:05.744-05:00Your comments about model situational reliability ...Your comments about model situational reliability are very important as found by the hurricane forecasters. Jeff Masters blog going back to pre Katrina were very interested in keeping stats on the model performance. In fact isnt the european model a composite. DonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-87992951367507500662014-08-27T23:43:18.986-05:002014-08-27T23:43:18.986-05:00What I think Anon above is saying is you are a lo...What I think Anon above is saying is you are a lot better than these computer generated forecasts but you might think twice before challenging them to a game of chess particularly a hundred simultaneous games. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-88946270657985364532014-08-26T12:48:07.808-05:002014-08-26T12:48:07.808-05:00Thanks again!
So you don't really need to a ...Thanks again!<br /><br /> So you don't really need to a heck of a lot about meteorology (not saying you don't!)for just temp forecasts, as a pose to something like predicting thunderstorm outbreaks or big precipitation events (witch you also do a great job on!:)?<br /><br />Really sorry if I posted a million comments of the same thing. The comment was not displaying my computer until that last one at 12:31.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-58457968311313030852014-08-26T12:37:30.516-05:002014-08-26T12:37:30.516-05:00I'd say when it comes to temperature forecasts...I'd say when it comes to temperature forecasts, a lot of it comes down to experience, not just what I see the models are showing. Over time you get an idea of which models do better in certain situations and which do poorer in other situations... which helps decide which model may be better to trust at that given time. Also, if a particular model is having a bad week, I keep that into consideration when making my forecast. But yeah, overall, I'd say a lot of it comes down to experiences and looking at trends. This is the advantage of manual versus automatic computerized forecasts.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-85874128216923303302014-08-26T12:31:07.633-05:002014-08-26T12:31:07.633-05:00Great job on your Winnipeg forecast, JJ! I can'...Great job on your Winnipeg forecast, JJ! I can't believe how accurate your forecast is! No more looking at any forecasts except yours, Robs blog, a weather moments and occasionally EC's. Just curious, but where are you learning the techniques to get such an accurate forecast? <br /><br />Thanks!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-2074613212098341212014-08-26T11:50:21.792-05:002014-08-26T11:50:21.792-05:00In case anyone missed, here's this morning'...In case anyone missed, here's this morning's weather update:<br />Another cold one today. Lake-effect cloud and showers overnight helped keep our temperatures a couple degrees warmer than they could have dropped to. Some very chilly lows in southwestern Manitoba including Brandon at 3°C. All the way down to 1.6°C in Grandview and about 0.5°C at the Melita Manitoba Agriculture station. We'll likely remain under more cloud than sun today in Winnipeg with highs only around 17°C or so. Another chilly night tonight in the single digits.<br /><br />Sun comes back for tomorrow and Thursday with highs of 23-24°C tomorrow and 27-28°C on Thursday. Note that the Canadian model is not as warm for Thursday. Cold front passes through on Friday with a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. That sunny forecast from EC is a little too optimistic. However, the front may pass through too early in the day for a decent storm chance. Models show it passing through already by midday, so the best risk for storms may end up to our east.<br /><br />After that, all I can say is that conditions look quite variable, which is typical of a more fall-like pattern... Lots of ups and downs. Cooler for Saturday but warming back up for the beginning of the week. Possibly another cool down mid-week before warming up again.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.com