tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post920473189365212070..comments2023-05-18T04:38:10.674-05:00Comments on Winnipeg Weather: July in Mayjjcwpghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-23129729423727509232014-05-27T17:58:56.598-05:002014-05-27T17:58:56.598-05:00yeah, a cell to our west looks to come in with in ...yeah, a cell to our west looks to come in with in 1/2-1 hour. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-7733579527809967722014-05-27T16:00:30.575-05:002014-05-27T16:00:30.575-05:00Storms have inititated south of Portage la Prairie...Storms have inititated south of Portage la Prairie. They may manage to reach Winnipeg early this evening.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-26061133153364299682014-05-27T14:26:02.167-05:002014-05-27T14:26:02.167-05:00Due to uncertainties, still too early to pinpoint ...Due to uncertainties, still too early to pinpoint precise locations. So far it does appear severe thunderstorms would be possible across most of southern Manitoba with potentially the best risk being in southwestern and south-central Manitoba. Again, too early to say.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-89087137732438566022014-05-27T14:02:12.981-05:002014-05-27T14:02:12.981-05:00jj, where is the main threat for severe storms thu...jj, where is the main threat for severe storms thursday?<br /><br />thaks!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-86032208059996217752014-05-27T13:21:12.408-05:002014-05-27T13:21:12.408-05:00Latest NAM run shows drastically reduced instabili...Latest NAM run shows drastically reduced instability as I expected. Still flip flopping! I wonder if SK's setup will overcome that extreme cap.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-49360960032935078872014-05-27T13:12:00.833-05:002014-05-27T13:12:00.833-05:00Still some uncertainty as to how Thursday will unf...Still some uncertainty as to how Thursday will unfold but if this pans out as per the potential, this will not be a good situation in Southern Manitoba. Could very a dangerous outcome.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-53355200195852896402014-05-27T12:11:48.689-05:002014-05-27T12:11:48.689-05:00Think he caught that Tornado in ND last night?Think he caught that Tornado in ND last night?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-73097935639586739012014-05-27T12:09:32.453-05:002014-05-27T12:09:32.453-05:00Was that a preview in ND last night Tornado in Wa...Was that a preview in ND last night Tornado in Watford ND ??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-13541538490913730882014-05-27T11:53:01.396-05:002014-05-27T11:53:01.396-05:00Try
http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=ND+Torna...Try <br />http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=ND+Tornado+watford&ei=UTF-8&fr=moz35 for a video.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-52945685387734043522014-05-27T11:49:40.210-05:002014-05-27T11:49:40.210-05:00Did anyone catch that Tornado in Watford ND yester...Did anyone catch that Tornado in Watford ND yesterday , hit an Oil Camp near Williston but the severely injured are in Hospital in Minot ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-40421338151829831132014-05-27T11:44:52.698-05:002014-05-27T11:44:52.698-05:00By the way, some rainfall amounts from last night&...By the way, some rainfall amounts from last night's storms in southwestern Manitoba:<br /><br />Melita 28.6 mm<br />Deloraine 16.4 mm<br />Reston 14.0 mm<br />Pierson 10.6 mm<br />Killarney 6.0 mm<br /><br />Courtesy of Environment Canada and Manitoba Agriculturejjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-26487932359252628722014-05-27T10:44:16.287-05:002014-05-27T10:44:16.287-05:00Sunshine would probably make the biggest differenc...Sunshine would probably make the biggest difference to get some good surface heating. Unfortunately, just how much sun we manage to get is really something we can't know for sure until the morning of.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-42980960725032625202014-05-27T10:24:15.592-05:002014-05-27T10:24:15.592-05:00JJ, do you think there will be enough ingredients ...JJ, do you think there will be enough ingredients in place that could erode the capping Thursday?<br /><br />Thanks, AnonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-42516255307180425602014-05-27T09:38:08.997-05:002014-05-27T09:38:08.997-05:00With enough sunshine, we -should- manage to reach ...With enough sunshine, we -should- manage to reach around 27-28°C today in Winnipeg. Storms will be possible this evening. These will likely originially begin to develop in southwestern and western Manitoba this afternoon where severe activity is certainly possible. Large hail, damaging winds, flooding rains are the main threats. <br /><br />If we manage to get enough sunshine, another 26-28°C day likely tomorrow. Storm activity not highly likely around Winnipeg.<br /><br />Still lots of uncertainty about Thursday. There's certainly potential for morning thunderstorm activity, some of which may be strong. This creates my biggest concern for late Thursday's potentialy severe thunderstorm event. I'm very concerned that cloud cover and ongoing convection in the morning and early afternoon will limit things. Capping as already mentioned is also a concern.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-35102750705317214912014-05-26T23:47:57.922-05:002014-05-26T23:47:57.922-05:00speak of the devil, Mr. Timmer is just tweeting li...speak of the devil, Mr. Timmer is just tweeting like crazy about it now. Says he's headed to Canada for the weekend to meet up with mr. Schofer...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-77218129140354658132014-05-26T23:46:05.535-05:002014-05-26T23:46:05.535-05:00Latest models agree on an area of reduced or no ca...Latest models agree on an area of reduced or no capping just ahead of the front. They differ on angling of the low at peak storm potential. The problem is if the moisture values verifies, the GFS and euro have especially been flip flopping on it. Latest NAM shows MLCAPEs of 2500jkg / messy CIN of -120-200 bullseye area where 0-1km EHIs are maxed... be interesting to see how it plays out.<br /><br />I wouldn't say major outbreak... but if a storm or two can form that day, it'll be strong, perhaps even violent as the cap gradually erodes in the early evening. I suspect the crew from TVN will be chasing this one even if it is a 50/50.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-58240607210404452422014-05-26T21:12:33.935-05:002014-05-26T21:12:33.935-05:00Quite the cluster of storms near Melita at this ti...Quite the cluster of storms near Melita at this time. Large hail likely. Those 3 trailing cells spell trouble for flash flooding as well.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-50662476222760670782014-05-26T21:05:29.418-05:002014-05-26T21:05:29.418-05:00Up to today, average mean temperature at the airpo...Up to today, average mean temperature at the airport has been 9.6°C or 1.8°C below the May normal of 11.4°C. At this point, with the temperature forecasts for the remainder of the week it doesn't appear this May will finish above normal. It is highly likely this will end up being the 8th consecutive month below normal.<br /><br />As for precipitation, we're up to just under 41 mm up to today, slightly below the normal of 57.4 mm. However, we'll likely add to that in the next few days.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-80619942608975098262014-05-26T19:39:46.658-05:002014-05-26T19:39:46.658-05:00Also, how about precipitation?
ThanksAlso, how about precipitation?<br />ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-67540350246805393072014-05-26T19:37:22.264-05:002014-05-26T19:37:22.264-05:00JJ, how is may set to go as far as far as the mean...JJ, how is may set to go as far as far as the mean temp for the month so far?? Still below normal even with the patten change?<br />ThaNksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-84451400990741761492014-05-26T18:44:42.297-05:002014-05-26T18:44:42.297-05:00Yeah, i would not get to high hopes, espiecaly loo...Yeah, i would not get to high hopes, espiecaly looking at all the busts we had last year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-46171866719212058742014-05-26T17:23:08.411-05:002014-05-26T17:23:08.411-05:00Thursday is looking quite interesting across south...Thursday is looking quite interesting across southern Manitoba. Potential is certainly there for a major severe weather outbreak if things allign correctly. The two concerns I have right now is cloud/early day convection and capping. Some of the model soundings show some strong capping... and we all know how often the cap has won here in southern Manitoba before! Cloud cover and morning convection could also be an issue, limiting surface heating.... we'll see how it goes in the next couple days.jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-35095297333797611482014-05-26T17:19:31.824-05:002014-05-26T17:19:31.824-05:00Wow, if the cap breaks Thursday and if the NAM is ...Wow, if the cap breaks Thursday and if the NAM is right, lookoutAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-51930882139456527962014-05-26T16:55:04.707-05:002014-05-26T16:55:04.707-05:00True, didn't consider the coolness of that nor...True, didn't consider the coolness of that northeasterly breeze this morning. Pretty pleasant nonetheless, managing to reach 20°C in some parts of the city. Hopefully cloud wont ruin our temperature forecasts tomorrow...jjcwpghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03353008394397372445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5071575595521727141.post-48662102729633808132014-05-26T13:11:20.946-05:002014-05-26T13:11:20.946-05:00Not as pleasant of a day as many would have though...Not as pleasant of a day as many would have thought it would be. Seems like that northeast breeze is doing a good job at keeping things cooler today. Not so sure we'll see 21 or 22C today. More like 18C or so which is much cooler than the last few days.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com