Unsettled

     Cloud cover will thicken up throughout the day today. A bit of sun will still poke out of the thin cloud this morning, though it should be cloudier this afternoon. It will be a rainy day in southwestern Manitoba with showers all day. Amounts there could reach 15 mm locally, especially the closer to the Saskatchewan border you are. That rain will try to push into southeastern Manitoba this evening, though it is still a little uncertain just how far east this rain will reach. High pressure in northeastern Manitoba may just be strong enough to keep most of the rain to our northwest, and to our south in North Dakota.

     My forecast is just for a chance of showers this evening and overnight, with little to no accumulation in the RRV and southeastern Manitoba. Expect highs around 13 or 14°C in the city today. With a bit of sunshine, we may reach 16 or 17°C Saturday.

     Tomorrow night becomes another tricky forecast. Essentially, the rain could 'split' once again, with the heaviest rain falling in Saskatchewan and way to our south in southern Minnesota. I expect we will still see some showers here in the city, but they will not be very significant with just a few mm possible. As the centre of low pressure moves into the Interlake throughout the day Sunday, showers and even a couple thunderstorms will possible Sunday. Wrap-around rain moves in Monday.

Briefly, here's my current rain forecast for the city of Winnipeg:

Friday evening and overnight ~ 60% chance of showers, little to no accumulation.
Saturday evening through to Sunday morning ~ A few showers, a few mm possible. Uncertainty exists.
Sunday afternoon and evening ~ 60% chance of showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder.
Monday ~ A few showers, a few mm possible.

April Summary

Click to enlarge

     With an average mean of 5.8°C, April 2012 was 1.8°C above normal, and tied for 30th warmest April on record since 1872.

     The month started off very mild in the mid to high teens, and on some occasions near 20°C. The month came on the heels of the warmest March on record, meaning an early start to green lawns, buds on trees, bugs, grass fires, and ice-free lakes.

Both taken on April 5. Plants and buds already starting to come out in spots. (right pic is mine) (left pic is by Amazis Louka, pic sent to TWN)

     3 days in the month saw temperatures over 20°C, which is bang on normal. The monthly high was 21.5°C on the 23rd.

     As for precipitation, rainfall was above normal, which is a misleading figure considering how dry it actually was. Two major rainfall events, on the 13th and 17th accounted for most of the rainfall. No thunderstorms were seen in the city this April; strange when you consider we had 2 or 3 storms in March! With only a trace of snowfall, April 2012 is one of the least-snowy Aprils in history. Only 21 Aprils (out of 139) since 1872 have had a trace of snow or no snow at all. The last time we've been this deprived of snowfall was back in 2006, when no snow fell in April.

     Everything was early this spring. Nowhere is that more true than on the Manitoba lakes. The south basins of both Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg became ice-free mid month, making it the earliest ice-breakup in recent memory. ''In my time I have never seen it (ice breakup) as early'', said Robert Kristjanson, 78, to CBC Winnipeg on April 9. Kristjanson's family has been commercial fishing on Lake Winnipeg for more than 120 years. Kristjanson mentioned that in a normal year people would still be ice fishing on the lake until mid April. (Full story by CBC here)

     Grass fires were a problem this month. Dozens of grassfires sparked throughout the month, some damaging property, and some were within Winnipeg city limits. One fire took the life of a man trying to fight a grass fire near Portage.

April 19. (left: visible satellite showing ice-free lakes) (right: Gimli Harbour web cam)

  

Warming Trend

Today looks like a mix of sun and cloud for the city of Winnipeg, with cloud winning out over the sun. The rain to our west will try to sneak northeast towards us, but the strong high pressure in northern Manitoba, and the dry air will likely protect us from the rain. Expect highs around 13 or 14°C in the city today.
Areas around Melita and Virden will get a bit of a soaking today with 10+ mm of rain possible, and a few rumbles are not out of the question. Highs will remain in the single digits there. Brandon, you will likely see some showers today as well, but nothing like what Melita will see.

Skies will be much clearer tomorrow for Winnipeg, while areas in southwestern Manitoba will remain in quite a bit of cloud cover. Brandon, you should still see a few sunny break in the afternoon. Expect highs around 16 or 17 in Winnipeg under sunny skies. Expect 12 or 13 in Brandon.

The cut-off low over Montana will finally break apart and move east Sunday night, giving us an unsettled Monday for much of southern Manitoba. There may be a line of thunderstorms early Monday moving through southern Manitoba along the llj, but it is uncertain at this point. Stay tuned for updates.

After the showers Monday, things warmup nicely with highs generally in the high teens and low twenties for much of next week for ALL of southern Manitoba. Normals highs by then are around 16 or 17°C, so technically it wont be hugely above normal, and it wont be anything close to records which are in the low thirties. Looking foreward to it nonetheless :)