Hot, Possible Severe T-storm Outbreak Again Today

    (photos of Sunday's storms below)
     The cloudier conditions we are experiencing over south-central and southeastern Manitoba will clear out this afternoon. In Winnipeg, we will see clearing within the next 2 hours. There may be a few showers and rumbles of thunder before the skies clear out, however the best risk will be south of the city. Carman, Morden, Morris, Steinbach and Sprague areas could all see this isolated activity over the next few hours.

     Behind the cloud cover, things will heat up into the low to mid thirties. Many ares are expected to rise between 32 and 34°C. Humidity will also be a little higher today, with dewpoints in the high teens and near 20°C in some cases. That will bring humidex values into the high thirties, approaching 40 this afternoon and early evening, if you are not under a thunderstorm of course.

     Speaking of thunderstorms, there is a good risk of another severe thunderstorm outbreak in parts of southern and central Manitoba today. Using MIST (Moisture, Instability, Shear and Trigger), all these ingredients are in play today. A low pressure system will be pushing into the Interlake late afternoon and early evening, with a cold front south of this. This will be the trigger. Moisture will be sufficient with dews in the 17 to 20°C range, and instability will be good in the couple thousand J/kg. Shear is expected to be significant today, and that is a main reason why today may be another severe windstorm day. Due to this high shear, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in the early stages of thunderstorm formation, in western Manitoba and the Interlake.

     There will be strong capping however, and this cap is expected to be quite strong along and south of the Trans-Canada. As a result, the best chance for storms and severe weather will be in western Manitoba, into the Interlake and east/southeastern Manitoba.

     Stay tuned to the comment section below, and my thunder forecast tab for updates today. I may issue some moderate severe risk areas in the Interlake later today once I get a better idea at where storms will form.

     Here's some photos of the storms and the damage they caused on Sunday. Keep in mind, today could feature some of the same conditions:

Storm approaching Winnipeg - I took this pic..  my twitter @jjcwpg

Northwest of Winnipeg. Pic by Scott ..  via twitter @steinbachwx

Taken by Jodi Hafenbrak in Winnipeg

Tree blocking traffic on St. Anne's Rd..  pic by Raymond St. Mars..   via twitter @raydawg189

High Heat and Humidity Today

     It will be another hot one for Manitoba today as temperatures rise into the low thirties, and dewpoints in the high teens and near twenty. This will bring humidex values close to 40 later this afternoon and early evening if you are not under a thunderstorm. It will be one of those days where strenuous activities outdoors should be reduced, and everyone should keep hydrated outdoors. Seeking shade if you have to be outdoors is a great idea.

     Today will also be a watch-the-sky type of day as severe thunderstorms will be possible throughout southern and central Manitoba this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorm watches have already been issued by Environment Canada this morning for all of southern Manitoba, excluding only the Virden and Melita areas. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible. A small risk of tornadoes exists in the Interlake due to lake-breeze convergence, and in south-central/southwestern Manitoba. Winnipeg's best risk for storms will be late afternoon and evening.

     Behind these storms, it will be a cooler and drier day tomorrow with highs in the high twenties, and humidity low.

     Things heat up again Tuesday. Highs in the low to mid thirties will be possible, however it will be a drier heat. Humidex values are ''only'' expected to be in the mid to high thirties.

July Heat Continues

     It will continue to be hot in southern Manitoba for the next several days. Daytime highs will be near 30 for the next week.

     Today, it will be near 30, however it will be a drier heat today. Tomorrow will be a little different. Highs near 32°C are expected for Winnipeg, but humidity will be a little more oppressive. Dewpoints in the high teens and near 20 will give humidex values between 38 and 40. Storms will also be possible today and tomorrow, with the best chance being tomorrow. The best risk will be in the Interlake, western and eastern Manitoba on both days. Large hail and torrential downpours will be the main threats, along with a damaging wind threat tomorrow. Tornadoes don't look likely.

     With a hot end to July, this July will likely end up among the top 5 warmest Julys on record. We may even have a shot at second warmest depending on how warm it is the next few days. Currently, the average mean for July 2012 is 22.0°C. The second warmest July was in 1914, 1916 and 1935 with an average mean of 22.4°C, which is certainly within reach. Stay tuned July 31 and August 1 for the answer!