Cooler day today behind yesterday's cold front. We'll likely only reach about 25-26°C under a mix of sun and cloud and a light westerly breeze.
A trough of low pressure moves in tonight and could bring some showers and thunderstorms throughout southern Manitoba. Best risk appears to be in the Parklands, Interlake and east of Lake Winnipeg. However, a few storms are still possible further south, including in Winnipeg. Severe potential looks small. Will provide some updates in the comments below later today if needed.
Skies clear tomorrow morning, giving way to a hot and sunny day. Assuming there isn't any unexpected haze, we should manage to reach 31-33°C. Humidex values will likely push the mid to high 30's, particularly in southeastern Manitoba.
Next chance for rain will be Monday night. However, models are not agreeing on how far north the risk will reach. Thunderstorm risk for the event looks to remain mainly to our south in the US.
Saturday, 19 July 2014
Wednesday, 16 July 2014
Hot, Humid & Stormy Weather On The Way
If you do not like the heat, I suggest you enjoy today while you can! Nothing but sun and light winds today with a high around 25-26°C.
Mother Nature cranks up the thermostat starting tomorrow as a southerly flow returns. Highs around 30-31°C are expected. Humidity will also be on the increase, but will not be extremely high just yet. There is the risk for an isolated shower or storm late in the day, but the risk is not very significant.
A strong southerly flow sets up ahead of a low pressure system in central Manitoba on Friday. Very warm air will be moving in, allowing for highs around 31-34°C in the RRV. This, combined with dewpoints close to 20°C, will give humidex values near 40. Perhaps good news to some, winds will be strong out of the south up to 40 km/h, which may make it a tad easier to cool off.
The first main severe threat will be on Friday as a strong cold front is expected to slice through southern Manitoba. Severe thunderstorms are likely with this feature, with all modes of severe weather possible. Stay tuned in the comments below for updates in the next couple days.
Slightly cooler conditions are possible on Saturday behind the front, with highs in the high 20's. The ''cooler'' conditions will be short-lived as hot and humid weather returns by Sunday. More thunderstorm chances may come early next week, but it is too early to be more specific than that.
Mother Nature cranks up the thermostat starting tomorrow as a southerly flow returns. Highs around 30-31°C are expected. Humidity will also be on the increase, but will not be extremely high just yet. There is the risk for an isolated shower or storm late in the day, but the risk is not very significant.
A strong southerly flow sets up ahead of a low pressure system in central Manitoba on Friday. Very warm air will be moving in, allowing for highs around 31-34°C in the RRV. This, combined with dewpoints close to 20°C, will give humidex values near 40. Perhaps good news to some, winds will be strong out of the south up to 40 km/h, which may make it a tad easier to cool off.
The first main severe threat will be on Friday as a strong cold front is expected to slice through southern Manitoba. Severe thunderstorms are likely with this feature, with all modes of severe weather possible. Stay tuned in the comments below for updates in the next couple days.
 |
| Forecasted scenario by the 06Z NAM weather model this morning for Friday afternoon. Cold front to slice southern Manitoba. Colour contours are the average dewpoint temperature in °F from the surface to 30 mb above the surface (roughly the lowest 300 metres of the atmosphere). |
Slightly cooler conditions are possible on Saturday behind the front, with highs in the high 20's. The ''cooler'' conditions will be short-lived as hot and humid weather returns by Sunday. More thunderstorm chances may come early next week, but it is too early to be more specific than that.
Saturday, 12 July 2014
Strong Thunderstorms Today to Herald Big Cool Down
Today will start very pleasantly in the RRV with lots of sun and seasonal highs. We should reach about 25-26°C in Winnipeg by early-mid afternoon. However, don't let these beautiful conditions fool you, a big cool down is on the way!
A potent cold front will be pushing across southern Manitoba from the north-northwest this afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and organise along this front beginning this morning in the Parklands and northern Interlake. By the time the front reaches the RRV mid afternoon to early evening, a line of thunderstorms is expected. Damaging winds will be the main concern as a result for us here. I think the chance that Winnipeg will get some form of thunder is high.
Behind the front, skies will clear for tonight before things cloud up again tomorrow morning. Due to little sunshine in the afternoon, highs are only expected to be around 15-16°C in Winnipeg. With strong northwest winds up to 40 km/h at times, it will feel more like October than July. A few showers are also possible later in the afternoon and evening.
The cold continues on Monday, but skies will be clearer. A high of only 18-20°C is expected. Winds will still be strong out of the northwest.
This cool down arrives as the jet stream pattern highly amplifies again in the next few days as seen in the model image below. Generally unseasonably cool conditions are expected in central and eastern parts of North America in the next few days. In contrast, the west will be cooking. Highs well in the 30's and possibly approaching 40°C are expected in the Interior of BC in the next few days.
Thankfully, the extreme cool down looks brief. Temperatures will start warming up beginning mid week as a southerly flow returns. We should reach low 20's on Tuesday and mid 20's on Wednesday. Even warmer air is possible on Thursday before things might cool down a bit to end the week. Still far away so things could change a little bit.
A potent cold front will be pushing across southern Manitoba from the north-northwest this afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and organise along this front beginning this morning in the Parklands and northern Interlake. By the time the front reaches the RRV mid afternoon to early evening, a line of thunderstorms is expected. Damaging winds will be the main concern as a result for us here. I think the chance that Winnipeg will get some form of thunder is high.
Behind the front, skies will clear for tonight before things cloud up again tomorrow morning. Due to little sunshine in the afternoon, highs are only expected to be around 15-16°C in Winnipeg. With strong northwest winds up to 40 km/h at times, it will feel more like October than July. A few showers are also possible later in the afternoon and evening.
This cool down arrives as the jet stream pattern highly amplifies again in the next few days as seen in the model image below. Generally unseasonably cool conditions are expected in central and eastern parts of North America in the next few days. In contrast, the west will be cooking. Highs well in the 30's and possibly approaching 40°C are expected in the Interior of BC in the next few days.
 |
| Highly amplified pattern returning for a visit. Deep trough over eastern North America, large ridge in the west. Map was retrieved using AWM's Model Viewer |
Thankfully, the extreme cool down looks brief. Temperatures will start warming up beginning mid week as a southerly flow returns. We should reach low 20's on Tuesday and mid 20's on Wednesday. Even warmer air is possible on Thursday before things might cool down a bit to end the week. Still far away so things could change a little bit.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)