Records Broken Yesterday

     A stiff southerly flow of air ahead of a low pressure system moving into northern Manitoba ushered in very hot and humid air from south of the border Wednesday. In many cases, it was the hottest day of the year as temperatures soared to the mid to upper thirties. With dewpoints in the teens and in some cases the low twenties, humidex values reached or exceded 40.

     In Winnipeg, the high of 35.4°C tied for hottest day of this year. With the humidex it felt more like 42. A breezy south wind kept things hot well after sunset before the cold front passed. It was still 30°C in the city at 10 PM.

     This was the 20th day of 30°C + temperatures this year for Winnipeg, well above the normal of 13 days for an entire year. A cold front last night brought cooler and drier weather for today, but temperatures will still remain above the 1981-2010 normal high of 23°C. We are expected to reach the mid twenties today. Another low pressure system will usher in hot weather Friday through Sunday however, with the potential for another 30° day or two. However, this time we may actually get some showers out of this system which could keep our temperatures a little lower.

     Here are the records that were broken yesterday:

                        New      old     record  records

Location               record   record    year    began

--------------------------------------------------------

Berens River arpt      29.4     28.5      1991    1905

Brandon arpt           36.9     36.7      1972    1890

Dauphin arpt           37.9     35.6      1972    1891

Fisher Branch          34.6     32.0      1991    1977

Melita                 36.1     30.1      1996    1993

Pilot Mound            35.5     35.0      1961    1938

Pinawa                 33.4     33.0      1991    1964

Portage/southport      36.6     35.6      1972    1886

The Heat is on

UPDATE 9:50 AM: HUMIDEX ADVISORY issued for all of southern Manitoba as humidex values are expected to reach or exceed 40 this afternoon.
     It will be a scorcher in Manitoba today as a low pressure system moving into northern Manitoba pumps very hot air from south of the border ahead of it. 850 mb temperatures are expected to rise into the mid to high twenties in southern Manitoba. This will bring the potential for highs in the mid to high thirties this afternoon. We will also have to contend with higher humidity for part of the day, before humidity levels drop off gradually later this afternoon and evening. There will be a stiff south wind this afternoon, perhaps providing a bit of relief to the heat.

     Due to the fact that winds will be out of the south, and humidity levels will be moderately high, temperatures likely wont reach their full potential in the RRV, as these types of conditions tend to surpress our temperatures somewhat. As a result, we will likely ''only'' reach about 34 or 35°C in Winnipeg today, which will give us humidex readings near 40. IF we were to see a more southwesterly wind and lower humidity levels, today could have been a 38°C day in the 'Peg.

     Hottest temperatures are expected to be in southwestern Manitoba where air aloft will be warmest. Highs between 35 and 38°C will be possible in Brandon, Melita and Killarney.

     Things will be cooler tomorrow and Friday behind the cold front, however it will still be in the high twenties! More heat looks possible this weekend when we may hit 30°C once again.

Cooler, But Not For Long

     Things are cooler, drier and windier in southern Manitoba today, all thanks to the passage of a cold front that brought the thunderstorms last night. Temperatures today will max out around 24 or 25°C, and 22 or 23°C tomorrow. There will also be a chance for showers tomorrow morning with the wrap-around of the low pressure system.

     This cool down will be brief however. After a seasonal Monday, temperatures are expected to heat up big time again Tuesday through to Thursday. If you believe the ECMWF model, highs in the mid to high thirties would certainly be a possibility mid week. The model brings in 850 mb temperatures well into the twenties. I will be keeping an eye on this as the days get closer.

ECMWF model brings in very hot weather to Manitoba mid week

     This hot finish to August will likely make this August our 14th consecutive above normal month. Crazy!

     Normals for this time of year are generally around 24°C for highs and 11°C for lows.

Heat Returns

     After a period of cooler weather, temperatures are finally beginning to rebound in southern Manitoba for this week. Today is just the beginning of what will be a few dog days of summer mid week. Seasonal highs near 25 or 26°C are expected with plently of sunshine.

     Tomorrow will really heat up. A southwesterly flow will usher in some hot and dry air. Highs between 30 and 32°C are expected in most of southern Manitoba, mainly along and south of the Trans Canada. There will be plenty of sunshine, and humidity levels will be low.

     Wednesday will be similar, with highs near 30°C, along with lots of sunshine and low humidity.

     Things look hot through to the weekend. Thursday may be the hottest day. NAM is bringing mid thirty degree highs. Thankfully, how ever hot it will be, humidity is expected to remain on the lower side of things.

     The next rain and cooler weather looks to move in sometime next weekend, so in the mean time enjoy the heat!

Yesterday's Totals

     Here are some rainfall amounts from yesterday. Amounts are from midnight to midnight yesterday, and come from Environment Canada and Manitoba Agriculture.

Brandon                     4.0 mm

Emerson                    5.6 mm

Steinbach                 11.6 mm

Winnipeg                  10-15 mm

Portage                    12-16 mm

Eriksdale                   23.0 mm

Fisher Branch            31.1 mm

Berens River              36.6 mm

Mafeking                   52.0 mm (up to 5 PM)

George’s Island          56.9 mm (up to 5 PM)

     Lake effect streamers formed off the lake yesterday evening and overnight. It is early in the year to get these lake effect events. 

Test

Gloomy, But There's a Light at the End of the Tunnel

     We will see some scattered showers behind the main system this evening over much of southern Manitoba. Accumulations will be lighter than this morning, with an additional 2 to 5 mm possible. Locally higher amounts will be possible downwind of the lakes where cold northwest winds blowing over the lakes will create lake-effect streamers; enhancing rainfall. Some of these may persist into the overnight. It appears at this point that areas between Portage and Winnipeg, and southeast of Lake Winnipeg (Pinawa, Whiteshell) have the best chance to see these streamers. They may dump an additional 10 to 20 mm of rain in these areas.

     Here are some rainfall amounts as of 3 PM this afternoon: (from MB Agriculture and Environment Canada)
Morris.................. 1.5 mm
Altona.................. 2.0 mm
Souris.................. 3.3 mm
Winnipeg..............    5 mm
Steinbach............. 5.6 mm
Portage.............. 10.9 mm
Minnedosa.......... 12.4 mm
Gladstone........... 14.5 mm
Russell................ 25.0 mm
Berens River....... 25.8 mm
Fisher Branch..... 28.5 mm
Mafeking............. 52.0 mm
George's Island... 56.5 mm

     Highest amounts have been in the Interlake and eastern Manitoba where rainfall warnings were posted and are still in effect. Lower amounts elsewhere.

     As mentioned, cold northwest winds will be blowing behind this system. These winds will be sustained at 40 to 50 km/h, and gusts will be between 60 and 70 km/h. These winds, along with cloud cover and possible showers, will keep our temperatures tonight in southern Manitoba a few degrees warmer than they would have been otherwise. Generally, lows between 8 and 12°C can be expected. Tomorrow will be quite cool with highs around 17 to 20°C. We will see some sun tomorrow, however just how much is uncertain. Continued northwest winds over the lakes may keep us in low cloud much of the day. We will have to wait and see.

Things will be brightening up

     Conditions will really improve beyond Friday. Friday and Saturday will still be a little unstable with a mix of sun and cloud. A slight chance of showers exists Friday in the Interlake, and for most of southern Manitoba Saturday. It is a very small chance therefore most of us wont see anything. Highs in Winnipeg will be in the low twenties.

     Next week remains uncertain. Some models bring back summer-like temperatures in the high twenties and low thirties while other models keep us in a cool weather pattern. Stay tuned for updates.

Cool

     It will be a fairly cloudy day with scattered showers, and possible thunderstorms. The risk for storms is looking a little lower than anticipated, but the risk is still there. Main threat is significant rainfall as storms and showers move quite slowly. Highs today will depend on how much sun we get. Anywhere between 22 and 24°C is to be kept in mind.

     Tomorrow will be sunnier, and not very warm. Highs will be near 23°C, a few degrees below normal.

     I will continue to keep a close eye on mid and late week, as an unseasonably strong system moves in Tuesday night and Wednesday. Significant rainfall and thunderstorms may be possible in some parts of southern and central Manitoba with this. Behind the system, it will be much, much cooler for a few days. Highs are only expected to be between 17 and 20°C Thursday and Friday, while overnight lows will likely be in the mid single digits! Yikes!
Temperatures at this point look to rebound in the weekend. Still too early to confirm this, so stay tuned.

Cooler Weather for August

     It has been warm the past few days, but it certainly has not been as hot as July. This trend looks to continue for the next couple weeks. If you enjoy extreme heat, it appears as though you will be out of luck in the next while. If you enjoy pleasant, or 'warm' temperatures in the twenties, this will be the forecast for you!

     Today will be a cooler day than yesterday with highs near 25°C and low humidity. Tomorrow will be the warmer day with highs near 28 or 29°C. There will also be a slight chance of an isolated shower or storm throughout most of southern and central Manitoba. The weekend looks a little more unsettled, but seasonal in terms of temperatures. Highs in the mid to high twenties are expected, depending on how much sunshine we get. Showers and thunderstorms are possible both Saturday and Sunday. More details will be available tomorrow and Saturday.

     The trend is really for more seasonal weather the next 2 weeks. There aren't any signs of any major warmups or heat waves in the near future.

NAEFS forecast trend for temperatures Aug 17 to 24. Near normal or slightly below normal temps for Manitoba, definitely cooler than we've become accustomed to!

Significant Rainfall Possible Later Today

     An unseasonably strong low pressure system is moving into Manitoba today. Rain and thunderstorms are already entering the province to the south/southwest of Winnipeg mid this afternoon. All this is along a cold front. More rains and embedded storms are in southwestern Manitoba and western North Dakota as well. All this is moving northeastwards.

     Due to the northeastwards movement of these storms, excessive rainfall amounts will be possible in the RRV beginning within the next couple hours. Up to 50 mm of rain will be possible locally, with generally lower amounts. Large hail will also be possible, and as a result EC has issued severe thunderstorm watches for south-central and southeastern Manitoba. An isolated funnel cloud or tornado cannot be ruled out in the province today.

July Stats and Summary

     If you thought July was a little hotter than usual, you were correct! With an average mean temperature of 22.3°C, July 2012 goes down as 5th warmest July since 1873. It is also the warmest July in 76 years! It marks the 13th consecutive month of above normal temperatures in the city, an incredible streak that we see no signs of ending yet.

Top 10 warmest Julys since 1873 (mean temperature):

1.  24.2°C    1936
2.  22.4°C    1914, 1916 and 1935
5.  22.3°C    2012
6.  22.2°C    1957 and 1983
8.  22.1°C    1989
9.  21.9°C    1923 and 1974

     14 days this July had temperatures over 30°C, which ties for 4th most in any July. The maximum was 35.4°C on July 29.

Top 5 Julys with most 30°C + days

1.  17 days    1936
2.  16 days    2006
3.  15 days    1914
4.  14 days    1974 and 2012

     Despite the drought conditions that plagued much of July, the month was only the 12th driest since 1873, with 23.5 mm of rain. Much of that rain fell in three bursts on July 4, 15 and 29.

     Thunderstorms were very hit and miss throughout the month, with many of them missing the city of Winnipeg, thus our low rainfall amounts. It was a different story in other parts of the province. Some notable wetter areas were Swan River with 182 mm and Steinbach with over 100 mm for the month. These two anomalies in southern Manitoba were thanks to isolated heavy thunderstorm events which severely flooded both areas.

     Some notable thunderstorm events:
July 4 - MCS system moved through southern Manitoba, creating an incredible lightning show for areas south of the Trans-Canada. There were many cloud-to-ground strikes. One home near Îles-des-chênes burst into flames after lightning struck the home. No one was injured thankfully.

July 19/20 - Some strong thunderstorms moved through south-central and southeastern Manitoba near midnight, creating a spectacular light show. The storm hit areas just north of Winnipeg hardest with up to 20 mm of rainfall. Southern and western sections of the city did not get the much-needed rain however, with only a trace.

July 29 - This event took the cake. Vicious thunderstorms in western Manitoba and the Interlake moved southeastwards into the Winnipeg area, and into southeastern Manitoba in the afternoon and evening. The storms brought incredible winds to the Interlake and Winnipeg area, with gusts well over 90 km/h reported. Winnipeg saw a peak gust of 98 km/h at the airport, while winds of 150 km/h may have occured in the southern Interlake, near St. Laurent in particular. Damage was extensive. Trees were uprooted, including within Winnipeg, along with downed power lines and other damages. A house near St. Laurent was completely destroyed as plow winds ripped through the area. The storms caused hundreds of thousands of dollars in damages, and will take weeks to clean up. Below is a brief gallery of photos of this event.