Snowfall has already begun in western Manitoba and that snowfall will continue to intensify and move eastward throughout the day. Here in southeastern Manitoba, the sunshine will actually be making its appearance this morning ahead of the Montana Low. Cloudy skies will replace the sunshine this afternoon, and this will bring the chance for some flurries. Winds will be brisk out of the southeast near 30 km/h and gusting up to 50 km/h. This will create drifting snow on highways therefore it may be necessary to slow down at times if you have to travel.The main snowfall moves in by around supper and continues throughout the night. Winds will diminish this evening and become nearly calm overnight as the centre of the low moves close to southeastern Manitoba. However, by tomorrow morning we will be entering the colder and windier side of the system with winds dramatically increasing early or mid morning. They will become northerly or northwesterly between 40 and 50 km/h and gusting up to 60 km/h for Winnipeg. At this point it appears the strongest winds will be in the Red River Valley, generally south of Winnipeg where gusts to 70 km/h are possible. This will create blizzard conditions in open areas and on highways. It's because of this that Environment Canada has issued winter storm watches for south-central and southeast Manitoba. Blizzard warnings may be issued in the Red River Valley if things set up as expected.
As for snowfall totals, it appears western Manitoba will bear the brunt of the snowfall. 20-30 cm is expected for Riding Mountain National Park, Dauphin and Roblin areas. 15-20 cm is expected in the Interlake and a general 10-15 cm everywhere else. However, locally higher amounts are possible. Around 10 cm is expected in Winnipeg.
I have made a map of the snowfall totals that I am expecting for southern Manitoba from this morning up to Monday night:
I don't usually make my own snowfall total maps, but I thought I'd give it a try this time.
Given the inverted trough-type scenario, higher amounts will certainly be possible in south-central and southeastern Manitoba. We'll have to wait and see at this point. IF NEEDED, I'll update my map late afternoon or early evening.
ReplyDeleteAlready getting some light snow this afternoon, but the big stuff doesn't come until tonight.
ReplyDeleteSnowfall warning issued for the Red River Valley including Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking around 15 cm is likely in the city tonight. I have a change to make on my map as well; the 5-10 cm zone south and southwest of Winnipeg is now included in the 10-15 cm zone.
The AO index is at its complete opposite of last year this week. It is expected to be at some of its lowest values we've seen in quite a while. This could be a potential explanation to how the cold arctic air is making its way so much further south than usual. Link to ao index :
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml
Looks like at least 2 cm at my place so far today. Snow really starting to intensify in the last half hour. This intensification will continue through the night, it's going to be quite snowy overnight. I'm still thinking around 15 cm for Winnipeg.
ReplyDelete*15 cm for the entire system that is.
ReplyDeleteBlizzard warnings issued for the Red River Valley, excluding Winnipeg. This warning includes the regions of Portage, Carman, Morden, Emerson and Steinbach. These blizzard conditions will occur tomorrow morning and afternoon. Travel is highly recomended, in fact highways may be closed again if conditions are bad enough.
ReplyDeleteSprague and Whiteshell areas have finally been added to the snowfall warnings now too.
Took measurements all around my yard. Looks like about 11 cm has fallen since early evening last night. About 12-13 cm since yesterday afternoon. Still snowing steadily with another 5 cm possible by this afternoon.
ReplyDelete15 cm at my place now as of 11:30 am, and that's for the entire system since yesterday afternoon.
ReplyDelete