Cold Night but Milder Temperatures Coming

     Light winds along with patches of clear sky overnight and early this morning allowed  temperatures to plummet across southern Manitoba into the low to mid minus teens. Wasagaming and Brandon were the coldest, reaching as low as -15.9°C in Wasagaming! This morning's values were not record breaking, however they were a good 10 degrees below normal in some cases.

Wasagaming -15.9°C
Brandon -14.5°C
Roblin -14.0°C
Sprague -13.8°C
Emerson -12.1°C
Winnipeg South St Vital -11.7°C
Morden -11.6°C
Winnipeg Charleswood -10.9°C
Winnipeg A -10.7°C
Melita -9.5°C
Portage -8.6°C

     Things will warm up starting tomorrow with highs in the mid single digits for the next few days, above zero this time!

     There have been hints at a more organised storm system for southern Manitoba in the Sunday-Monday timeframe next week, however there remains some uncertainty. Models have shifted a bit further north in latest runs. If you do no want winter, this may be good news if the trend continues.

First Snowflakes of The Season

     Winnipeg and much of the RRV and southeastern Manitoba saw its first snowflakes of the season early this morning as a clipper system pushed into southern Manitoba. This is 11 days later than the 1981-2010 normal first snowflake of the season of October 9.

     Southwestern Manitoba got the brunt of this system, which brought the first accumulative snowfall to many, including Dauphin and Brandon.

     Here's a webcam shot at Dauphin airport this morning courtesy of NAV Canada:

SOURCE

     Some flurries will again be possible in the RRV and southeastern Manitoba tonight. Best chance for accumulation will be east of Winnipeg, including areas around Pine Falls, Pinawa, Sprague and the Whiteshell. 1-3 cm is expected in these areas.

     Cold conditions are expected to continue for the foreseeable future, with daytime highs only reaching the low to mid single digits all week this week.

Impressive October Rainstorm

     An impressive Colorado Low brought unseasonable conditions to southern Manitoba yesterday. Trailing thunderstorms in parts of southwestern Manitoba brought some hefty rainfall totals. Heaviest amounts fell in a swath from the Wasagaming to Deloraine areas with general totals of 40-60 mm. The highest amount fell in the Deloraine area where 70.2 mm was recorded at the Manitoba Agriculture station.

     Here in Winnipeg, downpours around midnight last night brought some higher totals to the west and southwest ends. 13.2 mm fell in Charleswood since yesterday morning, while just 5.4 mm fell in south St Vital.

     Here's a map of rainfall totals across southern Manitoba yesterday and up to 8 am this morning:

Rainfall amounts courtesy of Manitoba Agriculture, Environment Canada and Cocorahs

     A thunderstorm was even recorded at Winnipeg airport. This only ties for 18th latest thunderstorm on record since 1953. The 1981-2010 normal last thunderstorm of the year is October 2.

Very Mild The Next Few Days; Next System Late Week

     Very pleasant fall conditions will be continuing for the next few days as temperatures rise to near 20°C. A high near 21 to 22°C is expected in Winnipeg today under just some high cloud at times. Winds will be fairly light.

     Tomorrow looks very similar to today except a degree or two cooler with a high of 19 to 20°C under a mix of sun and cloud.

     Then things get interesting as a Colorado Low rides the jet stream which just so happens to be moving from south to north. This will bring the low right into southern Manitoba on Friday. However, showers are possible ahead of the system on Thursday. The bulk of the rain moves into western parts of southern Manitoba Thursday night. Showers will again be possible in Winnipeg on Friday. Due to how far north and west this system is expected to track, some thunderstorms will even be possible across southern Manitoba Thursday night and Friday as we tap in some instability and higher moisture from the south. Yes, I'm not kidding.

     The bulk of the rains with the system are expected to be west of Winnipeg with amounts of 25 + mm possible along the Saskatchewan border. Lower amounts in the RRV are expected. Seasonal to below normal temperatures will return behind the low.

Chilly Today; Frost Likely This Weekend

     Thankfully, a Colorado Low south of the border looks to remain to south and east over the next couple days. As a result, there are no worries of snowfall here in Winnipeg. However, this does not mean we wont feel any effects of the system. Moderately-strong north/northeasterly winds today and tomorrow will draw in much more fall-like temperatures. In addition, today will be fairly cloudy.

     For today, it will be a cloudy one. Other than perhaps a couple breaks in the cloud here and there, it doesn't look like we'll see the sun much today if at all. Temperatures will only reach the high single digits with a high of 9°C anticipated in Winnipeg. North-northeasterly winds between 20 and 30 km/h are expected with gusts to 40 km/h at times.

     The sun returns tomorrow as the Colorado Low begins to move further away. After a mix of sun and cloud in the morning, the afternoon looks fairly sunny. We should see temperatures rise to the low teens with a high of 11°C expected in Winnipeg. It is of note that frost will be likely in southwestern Manitoba Saturday morning as temperatures dip to between -1°C and -4°C. This frost may get as close as the western RRV. Here in Winnipeg there may be some patchy frost, but it doesn't look widespread at this point.

     A better chance for frost exists in Winnipeg on Sunday morning. Lows between -1°C and -3°C are expected. This will be the city's best chance for frost so far this season and this could end the growing season inside the city. As for the afternoon, it looks fairly pleasant. We should see a mix of sun and cloud with highs reaching 14 to 15°C.

     Early indications point at a mild week next week. If these indications are correct, we may see another day or two of temperatures near 20°C. Hopefully this trend continues!