A strong Alberta Clipper will bring more snow and wind to southern Manitoba over the next 24 hours. Snow has already begun pushing into southwestern Manitoba this afternoon and will continue to push east through the remainder of today.
Snow should reach the Winnipeg area by 5-7 pm and increase in intensity this evening. Snow should be mainly gone by early morning tomorrow, other than a few flurries. Note that the snow may be quite heavy at times with significantly reduced visibilities. At this point, it looks like most of southern Manitoba will have an opportunity for 5-15 cm. Here's my forecast snowfall totals for a few select locations from east to west:
Steinbach 8-13 cm
Winnipeg 8-13 cm
Portage 10-15 cm
Morden 8-13 cm
Brandon 10-15 cm
Dauphin 5-10 cm
Notice that higher confidence in higher totals has prompted me to raise my earlier forecast totals. Locally higher amounts are possible if an area is hit by more heavier bands. Areas along the escarpment and Riding Mountains also have an enhanced chance for the highest snowfall totals due to upsloping for part of the night.
Breezy easterly winds of 20-40 km/h will create drifting and local blowing snow on highways, especially late evening and overnight. Not a blizzard, but certainly not great for travel.
In addition, northerly winds of 30-40 km/h will create some local blowing snow on highways in the RRV tomorrow as well, not enough for blizzard conditions however. Inside city limits in Winnipeg, winds shouldn't be a major concern with this system.
Average vote in the poll is roughly 8-9 cm. Thanks for voting!
ReplyDeleteWill get a snow measurement soon... However, 10 cm reported by Rob in Charleswood.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see clearing skies midday after some periods of light snow this morning. Blowing snow in open areas this morning as well, which will calm this afternoon as winds begin to diminish.
The next few days look unsettled, gloomy and chilly. Some periods of light snow possible tomorrow, but best chance on Saturday and Sunday with a couply of very weak clipper systems. Not expecting much accumulation at all.
Warm up begins Monday. There is still uncertainty as to how long the warmup will last, but my gut feeling is that it wont last very long.
Turned out to be a very difficult measure for me due to the east/northeast winds overnight which is the worst wind direction for me, blowing the snow right off the roof. Amount varied anywhere from 5 to 15 cm depending on which side of the yard. Average looks like about 11 cm so that's what I'm going with. Also a report of 11-14 cm from Brad in Norwood.
ReplyDeleteI'm calling 10-15 cm as the answer for the snowfall poll. Congrats to the 3 respondents who voted that!
Snow depth now about 50 cm at my place, also just happens to be the same at Rob's. Max drift depth 77 cm at this time at my place. Last winter, we did not reach the depth of snow we have now until March...
New poll has been created. This time I'm wondering where everyone gets their weather forecast in the morning. If you do not check the forecast in the morning, it's ok that possibility is given in the answers! If there's another source you use that is not listed, please specify in ''other''.
ReplyDeleteThe reason why I created this poll is because I'm planning to compare my personal daily Winnipeg forecast with other forecasts to see how it compares. Thanks in advance for voting.
here are some snowfall totalls from EC's summary:
ReplyDeleteLocation snowfall total (in centimetres)
Winnipeg Charleswood 10
Winnipeg Norwood 14
Brandon 10
Portage la Prairie 13
Steinbach 7
Carman 9 to 15
Oakbank 10
High bluff 4
Elkhorn 6
Argyle 15
Pinawa 10
Indian Bay 3
Sprague 13
Neepawa 9
Baldur 9
St labre 10
Rivers 8
Rennie 6
Gilbert Plains 3
Arborg 6
Narcisse
Looks like about 12 cm in south Winnipeg. Nonetheless, 119.6 cm at my place since November; 117 cm in Charleswood. This is now the average for an entire year from October to May. Unfortunately, I wont have the chance to make a map of snow totals across southern Manitoba in the next few days.
DeleteLooks like next system to watch will be on Sunday. Wind this time will be an issue. A couple cm of snow along with south-southeast winds of 40 to 50 gusting 60 to 70 km/h look possible in the evening, which would bring at minimum significant blowing snow, perhaps some near-blizzard conditions in open areas.
ReplyDeleteOther than that, some light snow late today into tonight wiht 1-2 cm possible. Some more snowflakes possible again tomorrow.
Yeah and after Sunday it's looking like the potential exists for a major storm in Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. As we get milder things look to be quite unsettled next week as well.
ReplyDeleteAre we now the 4 th highest Winter snow and precipitation total with two weeks remaining. What are the chances of moving up.
ReplyDeleteWe should see some sun by this afternoon..
ReplyDeleteAs for tomorrow, still looking stormy with strong south-southeast winds and snow. Winds will pick up to 40 to 50 km/h by midday (around lunch) and continue to be strong for the remainder of the day. Snow is expected to begin mid or late afternoon and may be heavy at times. 2-5 cm expected by midnight. Obviously, with that wind, blowing snow will be a major issue in open areas, and near-blizzard conditions are possible in the Red River Valley, particularly in the evening.
However, the system will begin the warmup with very nice temperatures on Monday, likely reaching around 0°C.
There is uncertainty as to how long the warmup will last, but there are hints that we may be back into the cold as early as Thursday or Friday. The return to colder weather is expected to be ushered in with a stronger low-pressure system, but there is great uncertainty about the evolution of the system at this time so I wont get into too many details yet. Models seem to agree that a clipper system from Alberta will move in late Wednesday into Thursday, but its strength is in question. Some models develop a Colorado Low to our south which would have an impact on what happens here... right now we'll have to wait a few days for more clarity.
@Anon,
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg has seen 118 cm since November 1, which so far puts this November to February period as the 25th snowiest since 1872, so we're not anywhere close to records. However, with more snow expected before February ends, we'll rank up a little higher than 25th.
Snowiest November to February period was in the winter of 1955-1956 when 201.1 cm fell in this period.
1981-2010 normal November to February snowfall is about 83 cm so we've seen about 42% above normal snowfall so far with still 2 weeks to go.
DeleteThanks Jj I was looking at your top precip years for the Dec Jan Feb years on your Record Book pages. Missed Nov∞
ReplyDeleteThe title of this post holds true again for tonight with near-blizzard conditions in the RRV. Definitely do your travels as early as you can today before the snow moves in between 5 and 7 pm. Winds aren't too bad yet, but they will really pick up by around lunch and especially by afternoon out of the south-southeast between 40 and 50 km/h, gusting up to 60 km/h. Snow will end sometime overnight. I'm calling for about 4-6 cm with this system.
ReplyDeleteEnjoy the warmth tomorrow and Tuesday with highs approaching 0°C and a decent amount of sunshine. There may be some periods of cloudiness and flurries but overall it looks pleasant.
Looking quite likely now that the warmth wont even last through the week. Cold returns by Friday and perhaps even as early as Thursday with snow possible Wednesday into Thursday. Looking increasingly unlikely we'll be hit by a Colorado Low; instead an Alberta Clipper.
JJ, you mentioned the cold coming back later this week. Is it gonna be as cold as it has been or not as cold and do you see another warmup towards month's end like some have hinted?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
So far, the cold by Friday into next weekend looks like a similar cold to what we've seen so far this February; not extreme but below normal for this time of year. As for warmups beyond that, other than maybe a few brief warmups I still don't see anything prolonged unfortunately.
DeleteWell, winds not that big of an issue thus far in Southern Manitoba. Certainly not the 60 KM/H winds that were forecasted to be here by early this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteNot as bad as expected, but they should pick up this evening as they become more southerly up the valley instead of southeasterly. We'll see if that becomes true.
DeleteSnow will pick up later this evening and with that wind there will be significant blowing snow in rural areas, not a huge problem in Winnipeg. It may not look bad in the city, but it will be way worse outside the city.
Thankfully, winds never got as strong as forecast with a max gust of just 43 km/h yesterday at Winnipeg airport. Some max gusts in the RRV:
ReplyDeletePilot Mound 52 km/h
Gretna 50 km/h
Portage 48 km/h
Carman 46 km/h
Morden 43 km/h
Emerson 41 km/h
Will get a snow measurement in about an hour.
Just like last year... Last year we had a blizzard on Louis riel day, this year a snowfall.
ReplyDeleteEnjoy the warmup while it lasts because the cold is coming back later this week and looks like it will be here to stay for quite some time again as we slip back into yet another prolonged period of below normal weather. At this point models are not offering a whole lot of good news in terms of nicer weather for March. Looks like another below normal month ahead.
ReplyDeleteThere's hints that the west coast ridge and the large trough over the eastern continent may rebuild next week, but maybe a bit further east than last time. Something to watch in the next week.
DeleteWednesday-Thursday's system not looking very impressive at this time. Consensus is for less than 3 cm at this time, but GEM is still the extreme one with 5-10 cm.
ReplyDeleteTemperatures today through Wednesday will reach close to 0°C, cool down beginning Thursday but not really getting below normal until Friday-Saturday.
Looks like about 6 cm at my place overnight, same in Charleswood at Rob's.
ReplyDeleteSnow depth up to 54 cm at my place this morning, which is just about as deep as last year's maximum depth of 55 cm on March 18. Quite the snow pack this year.
JJ, if that ridge does indeed build further east than the last time, what does that mean for us in Southern Manitoba? colder than last time or not as cold as last time?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
Could mean more variable temperatures alternating between warm and cold, but leaning more towards the cold... but way too far to say for sure at this point.
DeleteWarmest temperatures around the escarpment and Riding Mountain today with highs above zero. +3°C in McCreary, 1°C in Portage and 0°C in Morden. Also 1°C in Melita. Can sure feel the heat from the sun now too!
ReplyDeleteHigh -2.5°C at Winnipeg airport and -1.6°C at The Forks.
DeleteSnowfall amounts have risen in latest runs for tomorrow night's and Thursday's system with 4-8 cm possible. Winds will also be strong on Thursday at 30 km/h, maybe 40 km/h at times, with blowing snow in rural areas. Should also see falling temperatures throughout the day, reaching minus mid teens by evening. Back to well below normal temperatures by Friday.
ReplyDeletePolar Vortex returns next week which means, cold , cold and more cold. Looks like a repeat of 2013 is in the offing for March.
ReplyDeleteWell, based on latest indications and the updated FOCN 45 Weather discussion from E.C. it looks this may be a significant storm tomorrow night and Thursday for us and much of Southern Manitoba.
ReplyDeleteYeah, the threat for a more significant snowstorm looking more concerning, especially the closer to Ontario you get. Complicated scenario tomorrow night due to that Colorado Low to our south. Looks like an inverted trof will develop behind it through northwestern Ontario and southeastern Manitoba which is a scenario notorious for heavy snows. Will have to watch for any westward trends with this feature.
DeleteAbove zero day across much of the RRV today. High of -0.5°C at Winnipeg airport but above zero inside the city including 1.9°C at The Forks and 1.2°C in Charleswood. All the way up to 3.4°C in Sprague... All as of 3 pm
ReplyDeleteManaged to pop up to 0.1°C at Winnipeg airport late afternoon.
DeleteNew poll for this next storm system...
ReplyDeleteModels still having trouble handling the coming system. However, consensus is that most of the snow will stay to our east in northwestern Ontario. At this point I'm only expected 2-5 cm in Winnipeg tonight into tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteHopefully everyone enjoyed the warmer conditions this week, because the next 2-3 weeks look cold! Don't see any warmups anytime soon unfortunately.
Well, March may be around the corner, you wouldn't think so with the kind of weather that's in store for us over the next few weeks. Nothing good about it. Winter clearly has no plans in leaving us, in fact it's gonna tighten it's grip on us once again. March may be every bit as cold as 2013 if not colder. Next 2 weeks look absolutely brutal. This clearly is gonna be the coldest winter in years by the time it's done perhaps by May.
ReplyDeletePerimeter Shield in force thankfully tonight so far, but should see snow move in in the next few hours. 5-8 cm not out of the question by tomorrow afternoon.
ReplyDelete