Sunday, 1 June 2014

A Month of All Seasons


     May was a month of extremes as we abruptly transitioned from April-like conditions to July-like conditions during the 3rd week of the month.
A wonderful end to a generally wild month
     Despite the extreme warmth at the end of May, the month averaged pretty much bang on the 1981-2010 normal at just 0.1°C below normal. This is just enough to keep the below normal month streak alive with May being the 8th consecutive month averaging below the normal. This so far ties for 7th longest below normal streak since 1872.

Table*: Top 12 longest colder than normal month streaks since 1872


Rank
# of consecutive below normal months
When?
1
18 months
Dec 1882-May 1884
2
14 months
Jul 1884-Aug 1885
3
11 months
Oct 1887-Aug 1888
4
9 months
1949/50, 2008/09 & 2012/13
7
8 months
6 occurrences (including this year)

     However, May thankfully put an end to a 5-month streak of months averaging over 3.5°C below normal, the longest streak of its kind since 1872. May was also the 17th month averaging colder than normal in the last 20 months (since October 2012).

     The cold began to lessen a bit mid month however. We experienced our first 20°C of the year on May 10 with a high of 23.2°C. This was the 18th latest first 20°C of the year since 1872. Normal is April 20 and therefore, we were a good 3 weeks behind schedule. However, it was cold enough for snow in the early morning on May 14. Some light accumulation was reported in some parts of the city. This was the latest snowfall since 2009 when we had some snowflakes on May 15. Temperatures dipped to -5.8°C the following morning, the 9th coldest low on May 15 on record.

     Mother Nature then had a mood swing by the 3rd week of May as conditions suddenly became summer-like. Afternoon temperatures regularly exceeded the 20°C mark by May 22 and some days were particularly hot with 7 days exceeding 25°C. In addition, 2 days exceeded 32°C, the most 32°C+ days in May since 1995 when we also had 2. It was hot enough for a record high on May 24 as temperatures soared to 33.3°C, the hottest day in May since 1995 when we hit 33.7°C on May 30. Thunderstorms also made an occurrence with storms in Winnipeg on May 20 and 24. With May 20 seeing our first thunderstorm of the year, it was the 8th latest start to the thunderstorm season since 1953.

Brandon thunderstorms & rainbow May 29
     Other intense thunderstorm events occurred on May 25, 26 and 29. Trailing thunderstorms brought significant street flooding to Steinbach on May 25 as 25+ mm of rain fell in a short period of time. Severe thunderstorms on May 26 in the Melita area brought damaging winds, hail and 28.6 mm of rain. On May 29, widespread thunderstorms, some severe with large hail, impacted southwestern Manitoba. Again, trailing storms brought impressive rainfall totals with 51 mm in Swan Valley, 39.7 mm in Melita and 35.6 mm at Brandon airport. An impressive lightning display occurred in the evening as well.

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*The normal used for retrieving the deviation of a month was the average of the previous 30 years. In other words, for 2002 for example, the normal used was the 1972-2001 average. For this year, the 1984-2013 average was used. Prior to 1903 and 1904, either the 1872-1901 or 1873-1902 normal was used.

26 comments:

  1. A wonderful day today... although it will be fairly cloudy at times, it's mainly just high cloud so there will still be some decent sunshine. I'm expecting a high around 28 to 29°C, so another July-like day.

    Thicker cloud for tomorrow and a good chance for at least a little bit of rain. A few mm possible or we may get nothing if the tradition of Winnipeg being on the edge of things continues.

    Sun comes back on Tuesday and we should manage to reach 23-25°C.

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  2. Another great summary Jj. Was June of 1882 warmer than our current Norm in that period from December1882 to Aug 1885? Those years at the end of the Little Ice Age..

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    1. June 1882 averaged 15.1°C or 1.8°C below the 1872-1901 normal. This is also 1.8°C below today's June 1981-2010 normal of 16.9°C.

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  3. The Spring (Mar-Apr-May) stats and rankings can be viewed with the link below:
    http://blogextra.weebly.com/spring2014.html

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  4. Well, hate to say this but it looks like cooler than normal weather will be returning this month especially by next weekend going into the 2nd half of June.

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  5. Cloudy, gloomy day today. Might see some showers at times but overall looks like Winnipeg may be scraped by this system again not surprinsingly. Sun comes back tomorrow and we should reach 24-25°C. Sun to start on Wednesday with increasing cloud in the afternoon. Should reach 25-28°C depending on if and when the cloud comes in.

    Yes, it does look like we may see a significant cool down by Friday. Looks like a chilly weekend in store with highs remaining in the teens. Too early to say if this is a return to a more normal to below normal pattern. Have to wait a bit before really knowing.

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  6. Wow, just had an brief but intense downpour roll through here in Windsor Park moments ago. That kind of a day.

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  7. Nothing but sun today with a high around 25-26°C. Thankfully, tomorrow looks a little sunnier right now than it did yesterday and we should reach 26-28°C. A shower is possible tomorrow night.

    Thursday has a little more to it. After a chance for showers or maybe even some thunder early in the day, things -should- clear up for the afternoon. Depending on how much sun we get we could see highs around 27-29°C. A vigorous cold front moves through southern Manitoba through the afternoon and into the night with a chance for showers or storms.

    The front will usher in much colder air for Friday with highs likely only reaching high teens.

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  8. JJ, is there the potential for severe thunderstorms with that cold front Thursday night?

    Thanks, Anon

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    1. A few isolated severe cells look possible, but so far I don't think we're talking about a widespread severe risk. Will see how things look tomorrow.

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  9. Looks like the thundershowers did materialize as expected in the Parkland region today. High of 25.6°C at Winnipeg airport so far as of 5 pm.

    If there is enough sunshine, there definitely could be some isolated severe thunderstorm activity in southwestern Manitoba tomorrow. Shear looks low so slow moving storms could be an issue.

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  10. Showers and thunderstorms are looking likely in the RRV including Winnipeg tonight, most likely in the late evening and overnight. Any storms that do occur will very likely be non-severe. There is a risk for severe storms in southwestern Manitoba this afternoon and evening as storms move in from Saskatchewan. Nonetheless, a beauty of a day as we reach 27-28°C. Tomorrow, more like 26-27°C. Big cool down as already mentioned for Friday with a high around 17-20°C, depending on cloud cover.

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  11. Already seeing some severe thunderstorm warnings on the Saskatchewan side of the border this morning west of Dauphin and Swan River. The reason for the warning is actually the rains due to trailing thunderstorms.

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  12. High of 27.4°C at the airport as of 2 pm. With increasing clouds we shouldn't rise a whole lot more today. Storms firing east of Brandon... will have to watch that in the next few hours.

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    1. Storms are dying as they enter the RRV not surprisingly. The best ingredients today are in southwestern Manitoba. Will have to wait until tonight to get a better chance for storm activity in the RRV.

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  13. At this point it does look like there is potential for severe thunderstorms tomorrow in much of Southern MB. The severe storm threat for today however looks to remain in Southwest MB.

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    1. I'm a little concerned the main threat will remain just to the east of Winnipeg, but it may be a close call.

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  14. A side note for the record books: The Forks station will now be used as the official station for precipitation measurements in the WINTER months. This takes into effect as of winter 2013-2014. The precipitation measurements at the airport station have become too unreasonable in the winter. The airport will still be used in the warmer months because it seems reasonable enough with rainfall events.

    Precipitation has become complicated to record in this city of late. For my record books, rainfall amounts come from the airport, winter precip from The Forks and snowfall from Charleswood.

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    1. and SOG Woodlands??lol

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    2. Yeppers, SOG is just another story.... I've just gathered a lot of SOG data for the daily SOG records in the record books and I did find some suspicious measurements at the airport station.

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  15. My goodness, Melita is the place to be for storms this year! Their getting pounded again as we speak. Hail looks quite likely as well as flooding rains

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  16. Well, it was a nice summer day but it sure is not anymore as temps have cooled off significantly over the last hour and we have even seen any precip yet. If you are a storm lover and wanna see storms the RRV is not the place to be in Manitoba, it never has been. The hotspot for storms in Southern MB is the southwest particularly the Melita area as JJ mentioned, is getting hammered as we speak again with a severe storm.

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  17. I see severe thunderstorm watches have been expanded eastward but not including Winnipeg yet. Looking towards the west and southwest, certainly looks like some weather will be moving later.

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  18. Surprise, suprise....the northern tier of the line of storms has fizzled out meaning Winnipeg will just miss the storms just to the south.

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    1. Wow, can't believe Winnipeg missed out again... Exactly why we have to leave the city to actually see something!

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  19. We went south to view the lightning... good idea. Crazy cloud-to-ground strikes... may have a brief vid or pics tomorrow.

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