Below is a collection of pictures from our chase yesterday (with Matt and Scott from AWM and Kyle). The first picture does have a funnel cloud in the middle just above the ground (it is hard to see; I tried to adjust the photo a bit to make it easier to see). This one was taken from highway 3 east of Carman, looking north. Second and third pictures are of the funnel cloud near Oak Bluff as seen from highway 75. The remaining photos are from highway 59 looking at the storms as they continued southeast of Winnipeg.
It will be much calmer today with a mix of sun and cloud and a high around 27°C or so.
Things gets unsettled again tomorrow with cooler temperatures and scattered showers in the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are possible. However, they will likely remain non-severe.
Cooler conditions continue Tuesday with highs in the low 20's under a mix of sun and cloud. Warmer and more humid conditions return on Thursday with highs in the high 20's to near 30°C possible. Thunderstorms might be possible late in the day or on Friday. However, models are not agreeing on what will occur at the end of the week into next weekend right now.
A good collection of aerial photos of the flooding around Brandon yesterday from the Brandon Sun:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.brandonsun.com/multimedia/pov/265947731.html
Other reports to Environment Canada yesterday included golf ball to baseball sized hail west and southwest of Brandon last night. Apparently, a tornado was reported near Hartney, but I am not sure if this has been confirmed or not. Wind gusts to 131 km/h also occurred in Pilot Mound. These are according to the Environment Canada summary this morning.
ReplyDeleteHas any effort been made to setup east of Winnipeg or North in the interlake. A number of major stormsand F2 and 3 stoms have started there and raced soouthward before heading further east either direc tly over lake winnipeg or around the Selkirk bypass. I recall more than one EF storm at Patricia Beach another two at beaconia and gull lake with fatalaties Another from Fraserwood came down the highway to Near gimli lifted up and swept across to near grand beach and hit a trailer camp ground. Lastly another from Inwood swept around the lake nearing Teulon NETLEY golf course Skirted Winnipegs perimeter and then went thru some beach east side up the winnipeg river to near point du bois. All of these came within 50 km of Winnipeg and some were visible from the north perimeter. At least three were in the last 10 years So close and so easy to reach. PS Seems there was one in the interlake that came down again in Earfalls and Red Lake as well. a few yearrs ago .Wouldnt these be easier to reach than the southwest corner of Mb?
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion it all depends you need a northwest flow in place for that to happen and with all honesty it is quite possible I'll be praying for it to happen I remember years like that 2007/2011/2012/2013 but they were all spread out good times I've Remembers. As for storms from Southwest Manitoba you almost need a northeast flow or west flow last night's decided to swing southeast as it dug into the ridge allowing for warmer air to feed into it from the USA shear was present not enough here for them to strengthen unfortunately it is always the luck of a draw or throwing a dart on the map. last night we bummed out but it doesn't mean storms hate it here they just follow what the atmosphere is doing. nothing to do what's sitting below storms if they had of kept moving east we would have gotten slammed.. nothing is ever perfect but storms can hit here just depends on the atmospheric flow which we should take into account more often. We can only hope and pray that we get a setup or two which offers better conditions for us a storm from the mb lakes and out of dauphin usually does us good. You can't get all storms but we sure can get storms from the southwest if the setup favors.
DeleteAlso I would like to add it would be easier for them to reach us if they were coming off of Lake Manitoba or just westof winnipeg we had setups before like that and they have hit us easier for storms like that to hit us if anything big stoems like that need to slump south to gain more power that's why we get big storms off lake mb because they happen to be in our path before they slump south along the jet exactly like the ones In SouthMB last night. so it's easier unless we see a line of storms develop west if us that moveverything east and not southeast. If something would have developed by Dauphin or lake mb we would have luck last night. I answer you right?
DeleteThanks Mike. You are right about those storms , most swept in off the narrows of lake Manitoba first and then across the south end of Lake Winnipeg. And all but one travelled southeast. The exception was the Fraserwood Gimli Beaconia. due east.
DeleteInteresting that as I recall the Elie F5 was the merger of two groups of cells travelling east, one from South west MB to the east. This line of storms went due east and the other one came from northwest I think Riding Mountain Dauphin area to SE corner of lake Manitoba and then South. Good or bad timing. you know where they met.
Beautiful to start today... But scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon across southern Manitoba. An isolated severe storm is possible, but not a major threat today. Marginally severe hail and strong winds would be the main threat.
ReplyDeleteCooler tomorrow, only reaching around 22°C or so. A chance for showers remains, but is not as high as today's.
Warming up beginning Wednesday, reaching around 24°C or so. High 20's on Thursday. Risk of thunderstorms remains for Thursday night into early Friday, so that will be the next system to watch.
Well, the perimeter shield did it's thing again. Storms weakened by the time they got to the Peg as per usual. Incredible.
ReplyDeletesome models hinting at a big cool down with highs in the teens early next week. Any thoughts on this JJ?
ReplyDeleteYeah, it looks like a below normal regime will be re-establishing itself over us for an extended time beginning this weekend as as a ridge builds over B.C. resulting in a NW flow aloft for us. Sounds familiar, doesn't it.
ReplyDeleteECMWFmodels show nothing but below normal right through to early August. It also predicted a cooler than normal June but we were pretty close. Nonetheless, I'm calling it now. July will be the 10th consecutive month below normal. I'd be fine if I was wrong.
DeleteAlso appears some people are jumping off the El Nino bandwagon even though CPC is still giving a 70-80% chance of one. In fact CPC predicts a huge shift to above normal from Oct 2014-June 2015. To be taken with a a grain of salt, obviously.
I'm feeling confident July will finish below normal as well. A 10th consecutive month streak of below normal is quite impressive. It would be the longest below normal streak since an 11-month streak in 1887-1888!
DeleteBy the way, the 1894-2013 average for July is 19.5°C for future reference.
It does appear there may be a cool down early next week, but I am not convinced it will stay for a long time. Although, it's still pretty far away.
ReplyDeleteFor today, we'll see some increasing cloud midday or early afternoon with a chance of showers later this afternoon. Not a very high chance, but the chance is there. Should reach around 21-22°C.
ReplyDeletePlenty of sun tomorrow and a high around 23°C or so.
Thursday, things get interesting again. Southerly flow returns and we should manage to reach around 27-28°C. Humidity wont be very high with dewpoints in the high teens possible by late afternoon. A severe thunderstorm outbreak is expected for southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba in the afternoon and evening as a cold front sweeps in. Capping might be a concern, but I think some storms should manage to develop. Storms would then push east through the night. If anything did manage to reach the RRV, it would likely be overnight or in the morning on Friday. Seasonal conditions continue on Friday with a high in the mid 20's.
I must note that those 30's for Sunday and Monday in EC's forecast seem way too optimistic. Mid to high 20's possible on Saturday, but the cool down starts Sunday. The Weather Network's forecast seems much more reasonable.
Jj what are the odds of us getting warmer weather long enough for more severe weather? Like we're not done storm season yet and hoping t we can get more severe storms I'm losing hope.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't get too dissapointed yet, it is only mid July. The bulk of the thunderstorm season continues until early September.
DeleteWell, Mike the pattern for the next few weeks certainly does not support severe weather with cooler than normal temps expected for the rest of this month and perhaps beyond after Saturday. As for Thursday's severe weather potential, well I for one right now take that with a grain of salt as I do not expect those storms to reach Winnipeg as is usually always the case when storms originate in SE SSK/SW MB. This is basically the same scenario as Saturday night and we all know how that turned out with Winnipeg getting nothing as per usual. My best advice for any storm lover like myself would to be to either travel out west on storm potential days or move out west because as I have said before, Winnipeg's not the place to be for storms, never has been never will be.
ReplyDeleteI mean can we still get storms here we have had them here before in all honesty though I think we'll see more soon. If not I can always move to carman on morris when I move.
DeleteBrandon monthly and seasonal temperature records have finally been added to the record books. 1981-2010 normals for temperature also added. Note that I've done extensive quality checking to Brandon's temperature data; the entire list of quality checks can be seen in the quality corrections tab.
ReplyDeleteGreat stuff. Thanks Julien..
DeleteThanks JJ Its a treat to turn to records that are accurate.
DeleteFantastic day today with little to no wind and plenty of sun. We should reach about 23°C or so.
ReplyDeleteWindy from the south tomorrow with gusts up to 50 km/h at times. With lots of sun, we should manage to reach around 28°C. Severe thunderstorms possible in southwestern Manitoba in the afternoon and evening as a cold front sweeps through. Chance continues east into the RRV and Interlake late evening and overnight. BEST risk will be north of the Trans-Canada. Severe activity remains possible through the night.
Still warm behind the front for Friday, likely reaching around 25-26°C after a morning low of just 18-19°C.
Big cool down Sunday into Monday. Potential is there for highs only around 18-21°C on Monday. However, I'm still not ready to say this is going to be a long-term cool down. Models show hints of warming up already late in the week.
Looks like a moderating tend may occur mid to late week next week but a cooldown also looks possible shortly after that, and in fact there are not hints of a pattern change to hotter/drier weather for the foreseeable future. So although this may not necessarily be long term as in on a daily basis, it certainly looks like we'll see more cooler weather than warmer for the remainder of this month. That's 2014 for you.
ReplyDeleteMore sun than cloud today in Winnipeg with a stiff south wind gusting up to 50 km/h at times. Should manage to reach around 29°C or so. With dewpoints reaching mid to high teens this afternoon, humidity is not a major problem. Severe thunderstorms still expected in southwestern Manitoba late this afternoon and evening. The risk is still there that Winnipeg could get something late this evening and overnight, but best risk likely to our north.
ReplyDeleteStill warm tomorrow, reaching around 26°C. Similar on Saturday, reaching 25°C or so. A secondary, more vigorous cold front, passes through late in the day which could bring some showers and possibly some thunderstorm activity.
MUCH cooler on Sunday, likely only reaching high teens for a high. Consensus is high that the cool down will be short-lived. Warming conditions expected as early as Wednesday.
Not convinced that it will warmup that quickly. I'm thinking that the cooler than normal pattern sticks around for at least 6 to 10 which goes in line with the CPC outlook. Past history has shown that these troughs over central North America don't disappear that quickly. As for tonight, I don't expect to see anything here in Winnipeg as it's likely that a split will occur with storms to the north of us and to the south. There is a chance we may see something tonight but I wouldn't bet a dime on that happening.
ReplyDeleteI don't see a return to an above normal extended pattern neither, certainly not what I'm trying to advertise. But I don't think we're talking about an extended period of cold conditions comparable to the never-ending below normal we have seen earlier in the year. I think we'll continue to see variable conditions with cooler and warmer periods; likely more cool than warm. Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see.
DeletePersonally, I prefer this over the never-ending heat like the past couple summers. As we have seen, the constant heat never really helped our thunderstorm chances. It's nice to get a break from the heat as well.
And if does indeed warmup by Wednesday which I have my doubts on that, it will likely also be brief. No extended periods of warmer weather is expected here for the remainder of this month.
ReplyDeleteEven a somewhat cooler and more humid summer like this one is not helping our thunderstorm chances here in Winnipeg. it's been relatively quiet here again this summer in Winnipeg with storms either fizzling out or missing us much like the last few years.
ReplyDeleteIt's one thing being below normal but it's another being 8 to 10 degrees below normal like what it will be Sunday and Monday. As for E.C's day 6 and 7 forecasts, in my opinion that 27 and 29 for Tuesday and Wednesday is still way too high. More like low to mid twenties if we're lucky.
With that said, there is hope for warmer weather down the road. There are hints of a warmer pattern later this summer going into the fall.
ReplyDeleteJj looking at the cIn it appears the best chances for storms will be to the south and north along the front by brandon weak capping in the evening could make storms form there. Also wouldn't rule out the chance of some to the north of there. What do you think jj based on the rap model?
ReplyDeleteAlso could elevated storms be possible?
ReplyDeleteLooks like 29°C today might be a stretch given these very hazy/smoky skies.
ReplyDeleteMike, the bulk of the storm activity to our west will hold off until late afternoon or early evening given the strong capping today. Best risk as mentioned will be generally the further north you go where capping is weaker. I am a bit concerned that a split in things may occur tonight with some activity moving to our south and activity moving into the Interlake to our north. This certainly is a possibility tonight. As always, need to watch how things develop and evolve later.
I'm not liking how things are going for storm potential in Winnipeg tonight. The front is just moving east way too slowly and doesn't get here until at least early morning tomorrow. By then, storms will likely have weakened substantially or dissipated. In addition, looks like the bulk of the activity is going through the Interlake, and the southern branch is moving southeastward. I'm calling the risk very slim for the Winnipeg area.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the split in systems scenario has come true. One area of storms moving through the Interlake and Lake Winnipeg; another along the US border. Just a typical thunderstorm event in Manitoba.
ReplyDeleteJj why is eC still keeping storms in the forecast then?
ReplyDeleteMuch of srn MB was missed last night
ReplyDeleteThe RRV was spared overnight from any storm activity. Not a big surprise by any means.
ReplyDeleteLots of sun today with a high around 26°C or so. Winds will increase soon from the west/northwest up to 30 km/h this afternoon.
Tomorrow, things get interesting again as a much stronger cold front pushes through late in the day. A band of heavy rain and thunderstorms is likely late afternoon or early evening. I wont rule out an isolated severe storm or two in southern Manitoba tomorrow, but the risk is not extremely high. Nonetheless, we should reach around 25°C before the front moves in.
Much cooler on Sunday, but we should remain fairly sunny for the first part of the day. Becoming cloudy late day with chance of showers Sunday night. A high of only around 19°C is expected.
Cool Monday-Tuesday before things warmup starting Wednesday, reaching back into the 20's.
I am perplexed at the forecast hi temps of 38°C 100°F ForMinnesota early next week And the forecast Of much below normal here.Seems like a setup forextreme weather in between?
ReplyDeleteWhats your opinion Jj
OOPS Sorry for mixup . The trouble with watching weather on cable first thing in the morning is forgetting I left it on Spokane not Minneapolis News last night.
DeleteWell, tomorrow could be interesting across southern Manitoba. Main concern with the cold front will be damaging winds with thunderstorms. Tornado threat is non-zero with any discrete cells, especially to our north and west in the Parklands/southwestern Manitoba and Interlake. A line of thunderstorms, perhaps a squall line could possibly push through the RRV. Main threat for Winnipeg will be mid afternoon to early evening.
ReplyDelete