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| Storm on Friday morning |
Last night's storms were on top of the storms that went through the city Friday morning. 9.5 mm fell at the airport with those, bringing the 2-day total to 16.2 mm. Southern parts of the city haven't been as lucky with these latest events with just 8.7 mm at my place for the 2-day period.
Calmer weather has returned as high pressure settles back in for the next few days. We'll see a mix of sun and cloud this afternoon in Winnipeg with a high around 22-23°C. A little bit sunnier tomorrow with a high around 23-24°C.
Warmer conditions return for mid-week with highs around 26-29°C on Tuesday and Wednesday. The seasonal conditions continue for the remainder of the week. Things may become more unsettled next weekend, but that's still too far to guarantee.
By the way, I will have the Winnipeg forecast evaluation sometime at the end of August.
I picked up 6.1 at my place in southern st. Boniface, got a good downpour for 10 or 15 minutes, then it died down.
ReplyDeleteToday will be very similar to yesterday, albeit a little bit sunnier. Only expecting a high of 22-23°C again, after a chilly low of 7.9°c this morning.
ReplyDeleteWarming up tomorrow, reaching 26-28°C. There is a very slight chance of a shower or rumble of thunder associated with a very weak cold front. I don't expect a significant storm threat across southern Manitoba with likely only a couple cells producing lightning due to very low instability.
Not much cooler for Wednesday, reaching 25-26°C. More like high 20's again for Thursday.
Someone had asked if I could add Portage into the record books. I might do so at the end of August, but I'm not sure yet. I'm currently taking a break from the updates and have not decided if I'll wait until next summer or not.
ReplyDeleteThis sounds like a broken record but it looks like this weekend may be active with chances for thunderstorms possibly severe throughout the weekend especially Sunday as humid air works it's way back into Southern Manitoba by Friday or Saturday and will be hot. But still too early to be more specific and things could still change between now and then. Note that there are also some hints of some sort of cooldown either next week or the week after but model consensus on this is not high so I wouldn't get too concerned just yet. For now, just enjoy the the summery weather this week.
ReplyDeleteMix of sun and cloud today. I'm calling for 27°C as a high. An isolated shower is possible this afternoon and evening, but the risk is extremely low. A little colder tomorrow, reaching 24-25°C.
ReplyDeleteHeat returns for late week, starting on Thursday. Highs close to 30°C expected Thursday and Friday. As anon mentions, increasing instability could mean increasing storm chances, but I don't see anything too organised just yet.
I don't see any big cooldowns anytime soon in the next couple weeks. Any cool down looks very brief and not overly significant. This makes me wonder: could this be the first warmer than normal month since last September??!!
Looking at the 90 day long range we seem to be moving in that direction with the next six months ranging from above to much above. Couldn't happen to a more deserving prairie.
Deletehttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/
Thats from Oct 90day to Feb mar apr.
DeleteFriday looks very humid folks....A warm front passing through Southern MB Thursday will lead to not only a hot day day Friday but dewpoints will be in the lows 20s as well. Friday also looks quite unstable and thus with a cold front passing thru later in the day it looks like there's a pretty decent chance for severe thunderstorms. But again still early and that could change so we'll certainly continue to monitor that situation and provide further updates as necessary. Saturday looks quite decent although slightly cooler than Friday behind the cold front but much more comfortable before things possibly become unsettled again Sunday.
ReplyDeleteFriday is looking more interesting in this morning's update from the NAM, agreed.
DeleteFriday is looking more and more interesting. Could be a big severe weather day if things line up correctly. Certainly the heat the moisture the instability will be there. If NAM is right, storms should fire no problem and quickly become severe barring the cap not posing an issue. It seems like everytime a good severe weather setup comes together here and it gets bombed by either the cap or something else so we'll see.
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A tad cooler today reaching around 25°C or so. Heat returns tomorrow with a high around 30°C. However, there might be a lot of cloud cover and if there is, it could limit our high a bit. A shower is possible with perhaps a rumble of thunder later in the evening, but the risk is extremely low.
ReplyDeleteI'm no longer a big fan of Friday at this time. Bulk of the activity is expected to remain to our south right now and on top of that, the front may move through too early in the day. An isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible and anything that develops could be severe, but so far I don't see anything too widespread. Hopefully that changes.. Looks hot nonetheless, with a high above 30°C likely if there is enough sunshine. 32-33°C possible if the american models are correct. Canadian models are a good 5°C or so colder so we'll have to wait and see who wins.
A bit cooler for Saturday, but generally seasonal to above seasonal conditions expected to continue for at least part of next week.
Yeah, Friday looking less interesting than it did yesterday. Although thunderstorms may be possible, severe storms are not looking as likely. If that front moves in later then that may change things but right now it looks like the cold front will move through too early. Note that thunderstorms are also possible tomorrow night along that warm front and possibly even overnight tonight or early tomorrow morning but chances are low though.
ReplyDeleteon another note I do see some hints that things may be turning at least somewhat cooler later next week but again too early to say for sure.
Looks like the cloudier scenario has come true for today. Daytime highs are tricky as a result. To make it more complicated, there is potential for some clearing at some point this afternoon... or we may not see it until evening if we're unlucky. All I'll say is there is potential for 28-30°C today if we get some clearing this afternoon. Otherwise, we may only reach 25-27°C if it stays cloudy like this all day.
ReplyDeleteLooks sunnier for the first part of tomorrow, so I'd say a 30°C day is much more likely tomorrow before the cold front passes through late afternoon. If we see full-sunshine and the cold front doesn't push through until well into the late afternoon, we may even reach 32-33°C. Humidex values will likely be in the high 30's, possibly close to 40. Thunderstorms are possible with the front, some severe. There is uncertainty about how much development will occur along the front at this time. I think the best risk for severe weather will be in southeastern Manitoba versus the southwest, due to slightly better shear, but a severe risk is there in the southwest nonetheless.
A bit cooler for the weekend with highs in the mid 20's Saturday and Sunday.
A hot and humid one today in southern Manitoba. I'm expecting a high around 31°C in Winnipeg today if things don't cloud up too much this afternoon. Humidex values in the high 30's and close to 40 expected. Thunderstorms remain possible with the cold front later this afternoon and evening. Severe storms possible.
ReplyDeleteCalmer tomorrow, a little cooler around 26°C for a high.
Things get active again for Sunday-Monday. Assuming enough sunshine, Sunday could be another warm day with highs in the high 20's. Rain and thunderstorms are possible Sunday night into Monday. As a result, Monday may be a dreary and gloomy day with rain and possibly thunderstorm activity. High will be affected with highs only in the low 20's.
There is already consensus that another active period may occur late next week. A big cool down looks possible afterwards as anon was mentioning, but it's too early to say how long or severe it would be.
JJ, Where is the cold front currently located do you have an idea?
ReplyDeleteThere aren't very many surface observations in the Interlake, east of Lake Winnipeg and in the Parklands, so it's hard to say exactly. In addition, winds are quite light and variable today in many areas, making the front hard to find. As of 11 am, looking at Scott's mesonet, it appears the wind shift has passed Dauphin and is still north of Gimli.
DeleteWith the low shear today, looks like storms may be more scattered in nature. Best chance for something more organised is closer to the Ontario border.
Winnipeg still have a chance?
DeleteMost of southern Manitoba has a risk today, including Winnipeg.
DeleteWith this very abundant sunshine so far today, looks like I should have stuck with my original 32-33°C for today. High of 31.0°C as of 2 pm at the airport.
ReplyDeleteAre we awarding best friday forecast to which models???
ReplyDeleteI personally prefer the GEM regional's outlook. American models such as the NAM and HRRR were showing little to no development in the Interlake and Parklands today.
DeleteJJ, what are the chances of those storms in the interlake affecting Winnipeg at some point early this evening?
ReplyDeleteLots of outflow boundaries and other boundaries around... so although the storms that were headed in our direction have weakened, there could always be additional development later. It's very dificult to tell you if we'll for sure get nothing or get something given the pulsy nature of the storms.
Deletejj, what's the latest regarding Sunday and Monday? I'm hearing rumblings of a potent system threatening heavy rains and numerous thunderstorms.
ReplyDeleteHi JJ, having a large family gathering on Sunday, and now becoming increasingly concerned about the forecast. EC showing rain, while others not until Monday. What are your thought on the precip potential for Sunday afternoon/early evening?? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteWill have an update in the morning about the next system. Not surprisingly, today's event turned into a non-event for us.. BIG surprise there!
ReplyDeleteThere will be a chance for some showers in the afternoon tomorrow, but amounts look low if we do get anything. Heavier rains and storms possible in the evening as rain and storms move in from southwestern Manitoba. Daytime highs tricky due to cloud cover and possible showers... could be anywhere around 24-27°C.
ReplyDeleteMonday continues to look very unsettled with scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms. Daytime high forecasts very tough and dependent on if we can get any sunny breaks. Highs could be anywhere in the low to mid 20's.
Clearer skies on Tuesday with highs in the mid to high 20's.
The Wednesday-Thursday timeframe certainly looks interesting at this time as the big cool down moves in. Shear, so far, looks like less of an issue than it has been in the last several weeks. Hopefully things still look good for us suffering from ''storm-deprivation syndrome''.
ReplyDeleteStill too early to say how significant the cool down will be, if significant at all.
A tough temperature forecast for today given the cloudy skies. Not expecting much sun today, but a few sunny breaks are likely this afternoon. Chance of a shower is low. Main rain and storm chance comes late evening and overnight. Main threat with the storms would be the heavy rains.
ReplyDeleteLots of cloud tomorrow and continued shower activity on and off through the day. I think that 30% risk from EC is too conservative. I think we will definitely see some rain. Chance of a thunderstorm as well. Again, tough temperature forecast. A high anywhere between 20 and 24°C is possible.
Clearing up for Tuesday and warmer with a high around 26-27°C.
The Thursday to Monday timeframe is still looking quite active at this point with multiple chances for rain and storms. Some models even hinting at the potential for a Colorado or Montana-type Low on the weekend which could dump some much needed rainfall (ECMWF is not sold on this however). It would also really help to usher in the colder air we've been talking about for a few days now. Will be interesting to see what happens...
JJ, would you that the NAM going to extreme when they show 40 mm of rain tonight with no storms? In other words how much run is expected tonight.
ReplyDeleteAgain, I apologize if comments are not posted immediately. Sometimes for some reason blogger marks some comments as spam which forces me to manually accept the comment. If I am not available, it may take a few hours before your comment is posted.
ReplyDelete40 mm is not out of the question if we get under some heavy slow-moving or training thunderstorms. However, we could just as easily get as little as 1 mm if everything misses us again. Tough call for rainfall amounts.. just keep in mind that high amounts are possible. That storm west of Portage is interesting. Hopefully it manages to keep its steam as it gets here. Again, high rainfall amounts will be the main concern for us, but hail and damaging winds would be possible if it keeps up its strength. A line of storms may also develop and perhaps a squall line of some sort. Will be interesting to see how things evolve tonight!
ReplyDeletePortage la Prairie Manitoba Agriculture station recorded 35.2 mm of rain up to 10 pm... very slow-moving thunderstorms. Tough call for Winnipeg due to the possibility that the storms may begin to weaken significantly sometime tonight.
ReplyDeleteLooks like storms already have weakened as there are no more warnings in place and radar is also showing the storms weakening significantly unless of course there is attenuation occuring right now which is possible due to the fact that precip is moving over the Woodlands radar site but regardless of that, I don't think Winnnpeg will see anything significant tonight.
ReplyDeleteWell, in the latest radar update it shows the storm kind bowing out. But, yes, as usual i'd agree with you, we probably won't get anything.
DeleteI'd be pretty surprised if we didn't get anything from this. I don't see the line fizzling out anytime soon just yet. A decent lightning show and heavy rain looks likely for Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteAlthough, it does appear there may be a hole in the heavier precipitation, but it's hard to say for sure because there might be some attenuation.
DeleteWell it kind of looks like a splitting scenario in the latest radar update. Although i would one to get what you where saying...
DeleteOh yeah also forgot to say that the best part of the storm looks south of here. might drive down there later depending on the next update.
DeleteThere certainly is a lot lightning in the western skies now.
ReplyDeleteWeatherbug shows one lightning strke i side the perimeter at wilkes in the last 30 minutes My guess the hydro station always seems to get it.
ReplyDeleteCouple more one Mcgilvary halfway to costco fm perimeter @other on perimeter near Brady Westside
ReplyDeleteThankfully, looks like it might have been attenuation. On radar, line's filling nicely for Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteFirst strike west of assinniboine near airport and one just now at pembina and bishop on the way to you jj
ReplyDeleteThere were a couple close CG strikes around there in that direction just before the downpour hit. Love that crackling thunder!
DeleteCame in Hwy 3 tMcGillvary and is leaving Hwy 15 yDugald after slipping over Symington Now
ReplyDeleteLots of action still coming up Hwy 3 halfway from Carman.
ReplyDeleteLooks like south end got lucky this time 'round. Easily best storm of the year for us here. Frequent bright flashes, some cloud-to-ground (some were quite close I must add) and long-lasting downpours. Looking foreward to checking my rain gauge!
ReplyDeleteTotal 22 mm here at my place in River Park South as of 11:55 pm. Still raining lightly.
ReplyDeleteBased on what I'm seeing so far, looks like a general 20-30 mm south of Bishop Grandin so far.
ReplyDeleteJJ, it looks like this week will offer plenty of chances for thunderstorms especially later in the week. Are severe thunderstorms possible in the Wednesday to Friday timeframe?
ReplyDeletethanks, Anon.
Haven't really had a chance to look more in depth yet... Might have an answer tomorrow morning... If I don't have a chance, then not until tomorrow evening.
DeleteEither way, don't really like the looks of that big cooldown coming next weekend. Will feel like mid September as opposed to late August. Hopefully it doesn't last too long.
ReplyDeleteThese timely rains seem to arrive just in time to strip the smoke, dust and pollen out of the air. Did we get enough to effect the Riverwalk? Aubigny Morris and Grand Forks seemed to have longer and more intense storms than we did. Looks like you were correct about the south.
ReplyDelete