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| Beautiful fall colours and cloudless sky on Monday evening |
To start, today will be very similar to yesterday. Nothing but sun and a high around 26-27°C again. It will be windy from the south at 25 to 35 km/h or so. Clouds will increase tonight, giving way to a cloudier start to the day tomorrow. The clouds -should- clear out by the afternoon, giving way to highs around 22-25°C, depending on how early the cloud clears.
Mother Nature really cranks up the heat on Thursday and Friday as very warm air moves in from the southwest. Highs in the low 30's look likely, with highs around 30-33°C on both days. This will come close to or break some record highs. The old record for Thursday is 31.1°C in 1950 and on Friday, 31.7°C in 1952. We'll stay quite mild at night as well, with lows in the mid to high teens, potentially breaking some high minimum records.
The humidity will also be on the increase, making it feel a little uncomfortable for some. With dewpoints reaching the high teens, humidex values will push at least the mid 30's. We may come close to reaching the highest dewpoint values for so late in the season. We'll have to exceed October 8, 1997's dewpoint value of 18.6°C to break that record.
Looks like we'll cool down a bit on the weekend, but models are not agreeing on how severe and prolonged the cool down next week will be. Will keep you all up to date on the records and possible cool down in the days to come.
I'm just hoping that maybe we can get some sorta storm activity out of this heat. But unfortunately, despite the more humid air, things are looking pretty stable under this ridge that's causing the heat. Not looking for something to complain about here but thunderstorms are the icing on the cake that being the heat and humidity! Would just be nice to end off the year with a bit of something that everyone can enjoy when it comes to summer weather...
ReplyDeleteHumidity's already rising fairly significantly today. Max dewpoint so far today 17.0°C, not quite reaching the old record of 18.1°C in 2008 however. This 17.0°C dewpoint is even higher than what the NAM was showing, so clearly it will be interesting to see if we manage to reach a dewpoint of 20°C or not late week.
ReplyDeleteBased on what I'm seeing in today's updates, 28-31°C seems like a more likely temperature range for Thursday and Friday.
Very tough temperature forecasts for the next few days considering the very hard time models have been having. For today, unfortunately we start off pretty cloudy so our high will depend highly on how early we clear up. If we don't clear up until the afternoon, we may only reach around 21-23°C.
ReplyDeleteFor tomorrow, the NAM model is keeping the warmest air a bit further west than it was showing yesterday, so I'm calling the high 28-29°C right now. A bit warmer on Friday with a better chance for a 30°C day. We didn't end up breaking a dewpoint record yesterday, but we were very close. However, we run a good shot at breaking dewpoint records for the next 4 consecutive days... and not only record highs but also record high minimum dewpoints.
We stay warm on Saturday with highs in the high 20's. We cool down on Sunday... but thankfully it doesn't look overly significant and the worst of the cold may wait until later in the week.
Visible satellite this morning reveals an extensive area of low cloud across southern Manitoba and the northern Plains this morning. It should have a hard time to dissipate over us today but I'd expect a few breaks in the cloud at least later this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteSome patchy fog this morning, but it should dissipate this morning, giving way to nothing but sun this afternoon. Expecting a high around 28°C. Same story tomorrow and Saturday with highs near 29°C. Models keep pushing the bulk of the warm air to our west, so 30°C keeps looking harder and harder to reach. Now the best chance looks like Saturday... based on the NAM model anyway. Looks very likely we'll break a dewpoint record today.
ReplyDeleteBig cool down starts Sunday. Highs difficult to predict right now because the front is expected to be right through the RRV and southeastern Manitoba, a very close call. Nonetheless, highs in the mid teens possible under mainly cloudy skies and a chance of showers.
And the records begin to fall... Dewpoint readings just under 18°C in Winnipeg today easily breaking the old dewpoint record for today of 16.8°C in 2008 and so far 4th highest dewpoint maximum for so late in the year since 1953. This humidity is quite unusual for this time of year....
ReplyDeleteOut west, incredible highs today for this time of year. Around 34°C in Brandon so far, shattering the old record high of 30.6°C in 1938 for today. It is also the hottest they've ever been for so late in the year since 1890.
I should mention that models are bringing the cold front in much sooner for the weekend, likely keeping temperatures lower than previously expected for Saturday. A vicious smack of reality for Sunday with highs in the low teens at most and periods of rain.
ReplyDeleteToday will be our last chance to hit 30°C until next year. I'm predicting a high of 30°C, so I am hopeful we will come close to that magical mark. We have already broken the old dewpoint record of 16.6°C in 2008. Next stop, the highest dewpoint for so late in the season, which we could break today! We will have to beat October 8, 1997's 18.6°C dewpoint to claim that honour.
ReplyDeleteFor tomorrow, a little tough to predict highs because it will depend how early the front passes through. Could reach anywhere from 23 to 27°C depending how early it passes. Sunday looks downright miserable with a breezy north wind, periods of rain and temperatures remaining steady around 10°C or so. Beyond that, tough to say exactly at this point. So far, looks like a variable start to October but cold likely winning over warmth.
Already 26°C at noon, 4°C warmer than same time yesterday. I'm feeling good we'll be getting quite close to 30°C, perhaps even exceed 30°C.
ReplyDeleteOfficially hit 30°C at the airport so far today with a high of 30.0°C as of 3 pm. Record high will be tough to break and I don't think we'll be breaking it (old record 31.7°C in 1952). However, another record has come along with this heat. Humidex 35.8 at 3 pm was the latest occurrence of humidex over 35 on record since 1953. Old record was September 19, 2004 with a humidex of 38.1. As a result, we broke that record by a full week. Interestingly, just last year we broke the record for the latest occurence of humidex over 40. Septembers have really been becoming more and more humid overall.
ReplyDeleteHigh of 30.2°C yesterday, not quite a record. Dewpoint only got to 18.1°C at the airport so we did not break the record for highest dewpoint for so late in the year, but it's darn close!
ReplyDeleteEnjoy today while it lasts... because it may be the last very warm day of the year with highs in the mid 20's. Cold front passes through around noon to early afternoon or so, veering our winds to northerly for this afternoon.
Periods of rain again tomorrow, perhaps the heaviest of the rain in the afternoon. Breezy out of the north at 20-30 km/h. Temperatures will remain steady around 10°C, so little to no warmup tomorrow afternoon. A good 5-10 mm looks like a good range, but we could get a little more if the heavier bands last longer than expected.
Clearing up for Monday, but cool with highs in the low teens.
Looks like a Colorado Low will be pushing into Manitoba mid week which will usher in some warmer air for mid week, but then we cool down quite a bit again late week behind the system. Not expecting to get much rain with the system though with just some showers possible on Wednesday. System will be too far west, with the bulk of the rain remaining in Saskatchewan.
Should mention that frost doesn't look too likely until at least next weekend. No guarantee we'll even freeze by then, but that's our next chance. This is only the 26th time since 1872 we don't get our first freeze until October. Last time was in 2005 when we didn't freeze until October 6. Latest first freeze was in 1963 when we amazingly managed to not freeze until October 30th! Second latest is October 16 in 1920.
DeleteHowever, note that freeze dates are not representative of all of Winnipeg of course. Dowtown doesn't usually freeze until October on average, much later than the suburbs and airport.
Any idea what next weekend will be like? I'm planning a Garage Sale for the 3rd & 4th and it would be just my like for it to rain both days! Would love at least a heads up for likely weather, especially since you seem to be right a lot more often than most everyone else out there. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteRain will intensify later this morning in the RRV and Winnipeg area, then end sometime between mid afternoon and early evening. 5-10 mm likely, but can't rule a bit more if the bands are heavier than expected. We wont warm at all, with temperatures steady near 10°C.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we may end up remaining under low cloud throughout the day tomorrow which will really keep our temperatures down. If we don't manage to get many sunny breaks at all, we'll likely only reach around 9-11°C.
There will likely be a lot of cloud again on Tuesday ahead of a system moving up from the US. Showers are likely Tuesday night and early Wednesday with this system. Should see some sun in the afternoon as we get into the dry slot of the system. If we do get this sun, we could see highs in the high teens to close to 20°C.
Anon, for the weekend, hard to say right now due to disagreement. It does look like there's a chance for some showers, especially on Sunday, but we're not talking about a major system here. Risk of frost Saturday morning looks possible. Otherwise, cool on Saturday and a bit warmer Sunday.
Wouldn't mind if the rain held off until Sunday next weekend. Sale will be over by then. Thanks for the info. And thanks for continually providing complete and clear forecasts and weather information.
DeleteJJ, with September likely going to end on a wet note, thanks to rains drenching Winnipeg today, I'm hoping for a sunny weather next weekend as I want to go to Birds Hill Park to take photos of fall foliage, although there is a possibility of frost on Saturday. Forget the summer-like weather next weekend, I would just like to travel there, after I didn't go there at all last summer, due to the busy crowds at the beaches, Folk Fest in mid-July and stormy and wet periods in late August and early September, a period between the end of Folklorama and after Labour Day long weekend.
ReplyDeleteJJ, I'm also hoping for everyone to have a sunny weather for the Thanksgiving long weekend, which is 2 weeks away, after the last 3 years or so have been dominated with clouds and rain. The last time, we had a decent Thanksgiving long weekend weather was in 2010.
I'm hoping to nice weather for Thanksgiving as well as we are planning to head out to Riding Mountain. We didn't get to go a couple years ago because it was snowing! Hopefully not the case this year. Reality is, it's still too far away to put much faith in models so I don't have any early forecasts for that weekend.
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