Thanks. Do you believe this is going to be the snow that stays the winter? Is today the last day of bare ground until next Spring? This snow would accumulate and not melt right?
However, I am concerned that Sunday’s high of plus 4 and rain will melt it away
Most of the snow should stick tomorrow but can't rule out some melting if temperatures do rise above freezing.
That still depends how much snow we get with future low pressure systems. I think it's likely there will remain at least a trace of snow on the ground through the winter now but again this depends on warmups.
Yeah, that’s what I was thinking too, but is it too late to get double digit warmups at this point? We’ll be below normal through mid month so I would imagine we won’t be hitting double digits until next spring....
Last November was unreal though, it was just constant double digit highs, never seen anything like it before
Where is that -9C high for Friday on EC’s forecast coming from? What model is possible spitting or something so ridiculous? I would imagine it would be a lot warmer like -1C, which is what most apps are predicting.
The model might be picking up the fact we will have an extensive snow cover after Wednesday's snow. Friday does look like the coldest day of the week. I agree though, I don't think the high will be that cold, but it will definitely remain below freezing.
Even if we get an extensive snow cover isn’t it going to melt away with Sunday’s rain and warm high? I hope we get the snow cover to help keep us colder
Friday is before the weekend storm system so there will be snow on the ground. -6C is closer to reality but it could possibly be even a few degrees warmer.
To get that cold that early would be very impressive for sure. Too bad we probably won’t be setting any cold records in November. Those cold records are so hard to beat as they are so extreme, many of them set in the 1800’s
Clouds keeping us warm at -4C... ugh. Brandon already down to -13C. Wish we could clear out so we could get some nice cold. Why do they keep clearing and we don’t?
It's actually part of our climatology. Winnipeg tends to be very cloudy from late October to November in part because of our lakes. The lakes are still warm and the first cool air masses of the season pick up the moisture and maintain extensive and long periods of low cloud over us in the late fall (which happens to also be our lake effect season, for the same reason).
Thanks, it does seem like we haven’t seen the sun in a very long time. So basically, the first winter air that dips south interacts with the warmer lake waters which creates cloud?
Were those lake effect flurries yesterday afternoon?
Yes the snow yesterday late overnight and throughout the day was lake effect or lake enhanced. There is also the effect of north winds which are technically upsloping winds (gradual upsloping over hundreds of kilometres) which also helps to produce extensive low cloud in the late fall in combination with a moist surface (lakes).
I don't think we will unless there's a burst of sunshine for an hour or two which is doubtful. It would be the first Halloween to not reach the freezing mark since 2006.
I read some articles, the warmth in the east really is unprecendted and absolutely incredible, it’s crushing records like crazy. I saw that some places in Nova Scotia sat at 18C all night last night. Is that even comparable to March 2012? And we are preparing for our earlier winter in years, wow.
Yes there are some locations in the east where it is somewhat comparable to March 2012 in terms of extremes. Goose Bay, Labrador, for example had an overnight low last week that was within a couple degrees of their record high for the date.
That’s quite amazing really. What kind of highs and temperature anomalies are we talking about? What was that overnight low for goose bay relative to their normal highs and lows?
Is This weekends system looking more like a snow event again? Most apps have revised their forecast down to plus 1 or 2 rather than plus 4 and EC is now predicting the snow instead of rain
JJ, our cold snap is indeed looking much more severe again starting next week isn’t it? It looks pretty cold... and it looks like snow on the weekend instead of rain. Sunday at -1 instead of the 4 they were predicting
Next week is looking very cold, is there any end to the cold in sight or should it continue through at least mid month? Are we talking of a top 30 coldest November?
Total bust, hardly any snow at all. So disappointing. We had some flurries that barely covered the ground this morning and now it’s all melted, when can we get more snow again?
Yeah wow even the models that downgraded snowfall for Winnipeg were still higher than what happened. We should see some more light snow this evening and overnight with a dusting to 2 cm possible however.
Is our cooldown looking quite severe again JJ? Those highs next week look very cold. Do you think we might see a top 30 coldest November? How far does the cooldown look to persist for? NAEFS pasting us below normal through Nov 16th. What are your thoughts?
Assuming we get the snow storm this weekend, we should see our coldest temperatures so far early next week. Really have to see if we get this storm this weekend or not.
Looks like 10-15cm on Saturday. Now we would still be colder than normal even without snow wouldn’t we? I really really hope that we get it. Work your magic!
Does it actually look below normal through at least mid month though? It seems to be very high confidence
Highs below freezing for sure, unless there's some brief warmups. Yeah but look how today went, I want to wait and see when it comes to the weekend. By Friday we should have a better idea. Yes, below normal conditions overall.
Yeah, today was a real bust and very disappointing. They got some good accumulations out in Brandon though. Hoping that we’ll see this storm on Saturday. Is it high confidence that we will be receiving a significant snow?
Wow, even this evening the snow is not materializing. Either nothing or a dusting by morning.
Confidence seems a little higher for Saturday night yes. I'd be very surprised if we didn't get anything again. Winnipeg is a bit of a doughnut hole when it comes to snow cover right now with snow to our north, east and west from the lake effect a few days ago, and to our south from today's snow.
Yep. So basically permanent winter snowcover surrounds us now doesn’t it? This just plain sucks, so disappointing. Where is Old Man Winter? I hope he shows up this year for his lousy performance last year.
This cold snap is starting to look really severe isn’t it JJ? I crunched some numbers and it looks like through November 15th we are going to average 8C BELOW normal ( using the weather networks predicted temperatures )
That’s extreme isn’t it? Looks like temps take the plunge next week. Is every day of the month going to be below normal this year..... it really looks amazing. The complete polar opposite of last year.
That is true. But that’s going to change next week. Lows in the mid minus teens expected. Is this going to be as extreme as last year’s warmth? Is it likely we are talking a top 30 coldest November given the outlook?
I'd be very surprised if it were as extreme as last year. The cold records from the late 19th century are just too cold and to have the coldest november follow the warmest would be mind-boggling.
Regardless, even if we don’t break any records, it is likely it’s going to be well below normal. I honestly would not be surprised if we had a top 30 coldest or even a top 15 coldest based on the forecast.
It looks like we moderate late next week ( towards -1 or 0C for highs for 2-3 days ) and then we tank again after that. Does that sound accurate?
Wouldn't surprise me if it was a top 30 coldest November yes or even a top 15 like you said. Not out of the question that the monthly maximum only ends up being 1 or 2°C which is much cooler than usual for November.
I haven't seen any models give us rain but with temperatures rising to freezing in the afternoon there could be a bit of melting and a lull in accumulations. However, it depends how heavy the snow is. 5-10 cm a good bet tomorrow. Possibly a little more if the snow is heavy. Then we really start to get cold behind the system with lows regularly in the minus teens, maybe even getting close to -20C on one or two occasions. Appears there could be a brief warmup late week.
I wouldn't expect any warmup of substance for the next 2-3 weeks. Warmups in the long range become briefer and less significant as the days get closer, which isn't a good sign of any sustained warmups. This really looks like a cold November, especially for 21st century standards. Yes, we could get close to record lows and low maximums next week (within 5 degrees of them) but I think records will be hard to beat.
I don’t see us having any trouble getting past 2014’s mean of -8.8C, so that would give us the coldest November in 21 years, but if we could edge past 1996’s mean of -11.9C, this could be the coldest November in 121 years, it this a reasonable possibility? I wonder if we’ll see -30C this month.
In general, early winters do not say much about the rest of the winter. Close to 50/50 chance of warm or cold winter. I'll look into it a bit more later.
Regarding Fall’s average, do you think fall is going to finish above or below normal? A warm September and October could be outweighed by this very cold November right?
The snow might have settled a little bit since I didn't get to measure it until 5:30 pm. I measured about 8 cm, but I'll probably add about 0.5 cm to account for settling/melting because it appears most reports around the city were higher than my 8 cm.
Rob got 10cm at his place, snow has ended now and temp is dropping.
I hope we don’t get a warmup lol.
I want to ask about something, winter 1955-1956 has over 80 snowdepth record on the books. It basically dominates almost the entire winter for snowdepth, how is this even possible to have a snowpack that large? How late would that snow have melted?
-3.8C as of 10PM now. I think -10C is a stretch for tonight especially with no snow cover, what do you think?
ReplyDeleteIs Wednesday’s system still looking like a good bet for significant snow?
4-8 cm looks like a good range for the snow tomorrow through to early Thursday.
DeleteThanks. Do you believe this is going to be the snow that stays the winter? Is today the last day of bare ground until next Spring? This snow would accumulate and not melt right?
DeleteHowever, I am concerned that Sunday’s high of plus 4 and rain will melt it away
Most of the snow should stick tomorrow but can't rule out some melting if temperatures do rise above freezing.
DeleteThat still depends how much snow we get with future low pressure systems. I think it's likely there will remain at least a trace of snow on the ground through the winter now but again this depends on warmups.
Yeah, that’s what I was thinking too, but is it too late to get double digit warmups at this point? We’ll be below normal through mid month so I would imagine we won’t be hitting double digits until next spring....
DeleteLast November was unreal though, it was just constant double digit highs, never seen anything like it before
Where is that -9C high for Friday on EC’s forecast coming from? What model is possible spitting or something so ridiculous? I would imagine it would be a lot warmer like -1C, which is what most apps are predicting.
ReplyDeleteThe model might be picking up the fact we will have an extensive snow cover after Wednesday's snow. Friday does look like the coldest day of the week. I agree though, I don't think the high will be that cold, but it will definitely remain below freezing.
DeleteIt says -6C now, is this a lot more reasonable?
DeleteEven if we get an extensive snow cover isn’t it going to melt away with Sunday’s rain and warm high? I hope we get the snow cover to help keep us colder
Friday is before the weekend storm system so there will be snow on the ground. -6C is closer to reality but it could possibly be even a few degrees warmer.
DeleteI would hope we will get a real cold high!
DeleteTomorrow’s low max of -11C, how do we get a max so cold so early? That’s like a January average max
There was some snow on the ground, but not much. A very unseasonably cold air mass must have been in place.
DeleteTo get that cold that early would be very impressive for sure. Too bad we probably won’t be setting any cold records in November. Those cold records are so hard to beat as they are so extreme, many of them set in the 1800’s
DeleteClouds keeping us warm at -4C... ugh. Brandon already down to -13C. Wish we could clear out so we could get some nice cold. Why do they keep clearing and we don’t?
ReplyDeleteIt's actually part of our climatology. Winnipeg tends to be very cloudy from late October to November in part because of our lakes. The lakes are still warm and the first cool air masses of the season pick up the moisture and maintain extensive and long periods of low cloud over us in the late fall (which happens to also be our lake effect season, for the same reason).
DeleteThanks, it does seem like we haven’t seen the sun in a very long time. So basically, the first winter air that dips south interacts with the warmer lake waters which creates cloud?
DeleteWere those lake effect flurries yesterday afternoon?
Yes the snow yesterday late overnight and throughout the day was lake effect or lake enhanced. There is also the effect of north winds which are technically upsloping winds (gradual upsloping over hundreds of kilometres) which also helps to produce extensive low cloud in the late fall in combination with a moist surface (lakes).
DeleteWhere is today’s snow coming from? It’s been flurrying almost all day
DeleteJJ what was our overnight low?
ReplyDeleteThe Airport dropped to -9.1°C.
DeleteThanks JJ. So we did indeed get close to those double digits. Brandon got down to -14C, pretty impressive cold for so early.
DeleteI don’t think we are even going to make it to freezing today are we? Cold halloween.
ReplyDeleteI don't think we will unless there's a burst of sunshine for an hour or two which is doubtful. It would be the first Halloween to not reach the freezing mark since 2006.
DeleteStill -3.3C as of 2PM. Light snow flurries falling. A halloween that resembles winter for sure. What a difference from last year.
DeleteI read some articles, the warmth in the east really is unprecendted and absolutely incredible, it’s crushing records like crazy. I saw that some places in Nova Scotia sat at 18C all night last night. Is that even comparable to March 2012? And we are preparing for our earlier winter in years, wow.
ReplyDeleteYes there are some locations in the east where it is somewhat comparable to March 2012 in terms of extremes. Goose Bay, Labrador, for example had an overnight low last week that was within a couple degrees of their record high for the date.
DeleteThat’s quite amazing really. What kind of highs and temperature anomalies are we talking about? What was that overnight low for goose bay relative to their normal highs and lows?
DeleteAre the models pulling our snow away? As usual, it seems we are getting less based on latest forecasts from the apps I follow
ReplyDeleteLooks like we may end up on the lower end of amounts yes, more like 2-4 cm. See how things change in the morning.
DeleteThat sucks... as usual we get ripped off... sigh
DeleteIs This weekends system looking more like a snow event again? Most apps have revised their forecast down to plus 1 or 2 rather than plus 4 and EC is now predicting the snow instead of rain
ReplyDeleteHave to wait a couple more days to hopefully get more consensus among models. Some have rain some just snow.
DeleteSo now that October is over, what was our final monthly mean and ranking?
ReplyDeleteI'll post a summary in the record books website. I will try to get it up this morning but might be delayed until evening.
DeleteThanks!
DeleteWhere is our snow? I thought it should have started by now. I can’t see any on radar
ReplyDeleteJJ, our cold snap is indeed looking much more severe again starting next week isn’t it? It looks pretty cold... and it looks like snow on the weekend instead of rain. Sunday at -1 instead of the 4 they were predicting
ReplyDeleteStarting to look more like a snow-event only for the weekend as of this morning yes.
DeleteYes!!! I’m thrilled!
DeleteNext week is looking very cold, is there any end to the cold in sight or should it continue through at least mid month? Are we talking of a top 30 coldest November?
I’m going to predict a top 30 cold November. Those highs next week are insane
ReplyDeleteTotal bust, hardly any snow at all. So disappointing. We had some flurries that barely covered the ground this morning and now it’s all melted, when can we get more snow again?
ReplyDeleteYeah wow even the models that downgraded snowfall for Winnipeg were still higher than what happened. We should see some more light snow this evening and overnight with a dusting to 2 cm possible however.
DeleteYeah that was quite disappointing...
DeleteIs our cooldown looking quite severe again JJ? Those highs next week look very cold. Do you think we might see a top 30 coldest November? How far does the cooldown look to persist for? NAEFS pasting us below normal through Nov 16th. What are your thoughts?
Assuming we get the snow storm this weekend, we should see our coldest temperatures so far early next week. Really have to see if we get this storm this weekend or not.
DeleteLooks like 10-15cm on Saturday. Now we would still be colder than normal even without snow wouldn’t we? I really really hope that we get it. Work your magic!
DeleteDoes it actually look below normal through at least mid month though? It seems to be very high confidence
And assuming we get snowcover, just how cold could next weeks highs be?
DeleteAnd lows
DeleteHighs below freezing for sure, unless there's some brief warmups. Yeah but look how today went, I want to wait and see when it comes to the weekend. By Friday we should have a better idea. Yes, below normal conditions overall.
DeleteYeah, today was a real bust and very disappointing. They got some good accumulations out in Brandon though. Hoping that we’ll see this storm on Saturday. Is it high confidence that we will be receiving a significant snow?
DeleteWow, even this evening the snow is not materializing. Either nothing or a dusting by morning.
DeleteConfidence seems a little higher for Saturday night yes. I'd be very surprised if we didn't get anything again. Winnipeg is a bit of a doughnut hole when it comes to snow cover right now with snow to our north, east and west from the lake effect a few days ago, and to our south from today's snow.
Yep. So basically permanent winter snowcover surrounds us now doesn’t it? This just plain sucks, so disappointing. Where is Old Man Winter? I hope he shows up this year for his lousy performance last year.
DeleteIt's already here but Winnipeg has just gotten really lucky lately. There's snow all around us.
DeleteI want the snow!! That’s why everyone is getting colder but us. Bring it on!!!
DeleteI’m hoping Saturday turns out well, what’s the outlook on that?
Do you know what The airport station got up to today? I see the temp is dropping again now
5-10 cm still a good bet with Saturday's storm. Some 10-15 cm amounts are possible but exactly where is too early to confirm.
DeleteHoping we get the upper range of that. If we only got 5 it could be melted by warmups
DeleteAnd I hope it doesn’t miss us this time
DeleteSummary has been posted.
ReplyDeleteThanks! 41st warmest october, I’m surprised it didn’t end up higher than that. The late month cold spell really dropped the mean!
DeleteThat cold in northern MB this morning is incredible. -27C in Lynn Lake. Wish we’d get some of that down here
ReplyDeleteThis cold snap is starting to look really severe isn’t it JJ? I crunched some numbers and it looks like through November 15th we are going to average 8C BELOW normal ( using the weather networks predicted temperatures )
ReplyDeleteThat’s extreme isn’t it? Looks like temps take the plunge next week. Is every day of the month going to be below normal this year..... it really looks amazing. The complete polar opposite of last year.
Thing is, nights haven't been that cold, so it's possible we could get an above normal day or two just because of that.
DeleteThat is true. But that’s going to change next week. Lows in the mid minus teens expected. Is this going to be as extreme as last year’s warmth? Is it likely we are talking a top 30 coldest November given the outlook?
DeleteI'd be very surprised if it were as extreme as last year. The cold records from the late 19th century are just too cold and to have the coldest november follow the warmest would be mind-boggling.
DeleteIt certainly would be, but that would be crazy.
DeleteRegardless, even if we don’t break any records, it is likely it’s going to be well below normal. I honestly would not be surprised if we had a top 30 coldest or even a top 15 coldest based on the forecast.
It looks like we moderate late next week ( towards -1 or 0C for highs for 2-3 days ) and then we tank again after that. Does that sound accurate?
Wouldn't surprise me if it was a top 30 coldest November yes or even a top 15 like you said. Not out of the question that the monthly maximum only ends up being 1 or 2°C which is much cooler than usual for November.
DeleteThat’s crazy to have a monthly maximum in the low single digits when last year we were in the double digits constantly. What a change.
DeleteWe normally do see one or two double digit highs in November right? I don’t think we will see that this year
JJ are we seriously dealing with rain again? The weather network now calling for a rain snow mix with only 5cm.. ugghhhhh
ReplyDeleteI haven't seen any models give us rain but with temperatures rising to freezing in the afternoon there could be a bit of melting and a lull in accumulations. However, it depends how heavy the snow is. 5-10 cm a good bet tomorrow. Possibly a little more if the snow is heavy. Then we really start to get cold behind the system with lows regularly in the minus teens, maybe even getting close to -20C on one or two occasions. Appears there could be a brief warmup late week.
DeleteWow that is indeed cold.
DeleteThat warmup next week, could we get above freezing again or will we likely stay below? And will we cool down again after that?
Will that warmup still feature below normal temperatures?
DeleteWell, it's not even a guarantee this warmup will happen so I can't guarantee anything. It would be very brief yes.
DeleteYep. Is it looking like temps will moderate towards average near mid month? They look below average still but not severely cold
DeleteSnowfall warnings issued. There is strong consensus in models for 10-15 cm in Winnipeg tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteYep it looks that way. I hope it’s not another bust.
DeleteIs that warmup next week out of the cards now? EC shows very cold highs up to next Thursday.
Note we also had our first minus double digit low of the season this morning.
ReplyDeleteHow cold can it get with no snow on the ground JJ? And will tomorrow’s snow allow for us to get close to record values next week?
CPC outlooks actually indicating a return to normal or above normal temps by mid month, Is this a possibility? NAEFS still pastes us below normal
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't expect any warmup of substance for the next 2-3 weeks. Warmups in the long range become briefer and less significant as the days get closer, which isn't a good sign of any sustained warmups. This really looks like a cold November, especially for 21st century standards. Yes, we could get close to record lows and low maximums next week (within 5 degrees of them) but I think records will be hard to beat.
DeleteThanks JJ. I just have to say it again, what a change from last year!! It’s like we moved from Nebraska to Churchill!
DeleteIt’s goind to be so ridiculously cold I’d love to see a couple of records come out of it.
That warmup next week is fading isn’t it? Weather network pegs us in the mid minus single digits again.
Do you believe this is a sign of the winter to come? Could we be in for a true old fashioned cold winter like they had in the 1800s?
I don’t see us having any trouble getting past 2014’s mean of -8.8C, so that would give us the coldest November in 21 years, but if we could edge past 1996’s mean of -11.9C, this could be the coldest November in 121 years, it this a reasonable possibility? I wonder if we’ll see -30C this month.
DeleteIn general, early winters do not say much about the rest of the winter. Close to 50/50 chance of warm or cold winter. I'll look into it a bit more later.
DeleteRegarding Fall’s average, do you think fall is going to finish above or below normal? A warm September and October could be outweighed by this very cold November right?
ReplyDeleteThere’s hardly any snow on the ground so far... ugh.. is this going to be a rip-off too?
ReplyDeleteWell that turned around for sure, there’s a LOT of snow out there JJ! How much did you receive at your place
ReplyDeleteThe snow might have settled a little bit since I didn't get to measure it until 5:30 pm. I measured about 8 cm, but I'll probably add about 0.5 cm to account for settling/melting because it appears most reports around the city were higher than my 8 cm.
DeleteThanks. Is there a reason we might have had some melting? I hope it doesn’t all melt away.
DeleteWe’ve now had a fairly intense burst of snow this past 45mins. What are you up to now?
Is this the stuff that stays for good?
Temperature rose to freezing. Yes, this snow will likely be around for the rest of the winter, unless we get lucky with a warmup.
DeleteI'm up to 9 cm.
Rob got 10cm at his place, snow has ended now and temp is dropping.
DeleteI hope we don’t get a warmup lol.
I want to ask about something, winter 1955-1956 has over 80 snowdepth record on the books. It basically dominates almost the entire winter for snowdepth, how is this even possible to have a snowpack that large? How late would that snow have melted?
JJ it looks like we broke a snowfall record today! Rob recorded 10cm and the old record is 8.4cm in 1971!! Is this going to be in the record books?
ReplyDeleteYou there JJ?
ReplyDelete