The first chance for snow will be tomorrow with a clipper system, however the bulk is expected to remain north of southern Manitoba. Temperatures will rise a couple degrees above zero therefore a few showers may even occur in the afternoon. Depending on when the precipitation, if any, falls, brief freezing rain could be possible.
A more interesting system is setting up for Friday night into Saturday. As of now, most guidance points at the bulk of the snowfall sliding south of southeastern Manitoba, scraping southwestern Manitoba. As much as 10 to 20 cm of ''this white stuff'' (after such a long winter, I have enough of the word snow!) could fall in the heaviest hit regions. However, things can still change considering it's still 3-4 days away... Either way, the added precipitation, whether it falls in North Dakota or Manitoba, will definitely not help the flood situation.
As for the glimmer of hope I hinted at in the title. Models are currently anticipating a pattern-change beginning sometime next week. The AO is predicted to switch to strongly positive (as seen in the image below) by late next week. I wont say this is a sure guaranteed sign that spring may finally be our doorstep, but it certainly is a first signal at some change. I'll be sure to let you know when it becomes more certain! I don't know about you, but I am itching for some warmer weather!
I should add that it will be quite windy tomorrow morning from the south at around 40 km/h and gusts as high as 60 km/h at times. They will then begin to taper off in the afternoon and switch more westerly.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately the NAEFS model, (predicting temperature trends in the 8-14 day period) still expects below normal temperatures in that period. Looks like we'll just have to wait and see.. In no way does a positive AO guarantee warmer weather for us sadly.
ReplyDeletehttp://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2013040300_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png
Models have converged on a much more northerly track with tomorrow's system unfortunately for us. It's looking likely Winnipeg will see some snowfall now. The question is just how much. As much as 5-10 cm could fall in the heaviest hit areas. Right now consensus is for 2-5 cm in Winnipeg, but we'll have to wait and see.
ReplyDeleteIn Winnipeg, snow would begin tomorrow afternoon and continue in the evening and at least part of the overnight before tapering off before Saturday morning.
Thankfully winds wont favour a blizzard-type scenario, especially the further east you go. Strongest winds right now look to be in southwestern Manitoba where it may be enough for some blowing snow, mainly on highways.
I'm expecting 3-5 cm for Winnipeg tonight. Snow is expected to begin late this afternoon and continue until the overnight hours with a few lingering scattered flurries possible tomorrow morning and afternoon. Skies will clear tomorrow evening. We're not out of the clear just yet however. Another weaker clipper system is expected Sunday with snow beginning sometime in the afternoon. Another 2-4 cm for Winnipeg is expected.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, in case you haven't noticed, my updates will be less frequent in the next 2 weeks due to exams.
''For once the Perimeter Shield comes into effect when we actually want it''! Looks like the easterly winds (drier air) are helping keep the snow at bay a little longer than anticipated in Winnipeg today. The city is in a bit of a hole right now in the snowfall. It should begin to fill in soon, and I do think snow will begin within the next 2 hours. Will start very light and gradually get heavier this evening. Too early to say if this will keep amounts lower here; I'm thinking 2-4 cm right now.
ReplyDelete''Finally'' started snowing at my place...
ReplyDelete1 cm at my place as of 9 pm...
ReplyDeleteTotal of 1.8 cm for the night.. Definitely on the low side; wouldn't be surprised if that slow start yesterday had an impact on that. However, we will continue to see some light scattered flurries this morning.
ReplyDeleteMy goodness I'm completely cancelling the idea of a glimmer of hope seeing the new ensemble models. NAEFS now gives a next to certain change (90-100% chance) of colder than normal temperatures from April 14 to 21. This is getting pretty incredible, and honestly, ridiculous even. One of the latest springs in history? I'll be sure to gather some stats about that this month...
ReplyDeleteHere's the image of the NAEFS forecast:
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2013040600_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png
Will have to keep an eye on Tuesday.. A Colorado Low will be nearby. NAM has really been an extreme outlier with this one giving 30-40 cm of snowfall in western North Dakota and southwestern Manitoba/SE SK, and then heavy rains in southeast Manitoba. All other models that I can see keep it to our southeast with little to nothing in southern Manitoba.
ReplyDeleteNAM really backed off in this afternoon's update, bringing Tuesday's storm further south. However, given its 'mood' swings today, it's hard to trust that model right now.. Either way, if we get hit or if it slides to our southeast, this looks like a major system with lots of moisture to work with and great dynamics.
ReplyDelete