- Winnipeg airport has yet to reach +5°C this year, the latest ever to reach that mark for the city. The previous latest date to hit +5°C for the first time was in 1950 when we did not reach +5°C until April 15. Well, we're now 4 days past that and looking at forecasts for the next week, we may add another week to that record. This is truly astounding.
- Officially, snow depth in the city still sits over 20 cm today. This is the second deepest snow pack on April 19 on record. It is also only the 3rd time since snow depth records began in 1955 that there was more than a trace of snowfall on the ground on this day. So far this only ties for 9th latest to completely lose our winter snowpack (reach 0 cm). Will be interesting to see how much longer this snow takes to dissapear.
- Today also marks the 41st consecutive day with below normal temperatures.
- With cold temperatures expected to continue, this April is on track to being among the top 5 coldest on record. Depending on if things warm up in the last couple days of the month or not, we will have a shot at coldest. It will be a close call however. Current coldest is 1893 with an average mean of -2.9°C. So far this month we're at an average mean of -4.8°C up to the 18th.
Tonight we will have a shot at breaking a record as temperatures dip into the minus teens!! Old record tomorrow is -13.2°C back in 1988, so it will be a close call.
Meanwhile, an Alberta Clipper will bring in more precipitation on Sunday. Unfortunately, precipitation types is going to be a challenge with this one because temperatures will be close to zero. Consensus is for 5-10 mm of precipitation for Winnipeg right now. I'll have an update in the comment section of this post tomorrow.
Low this morning was -11.5°C at the airport, which once again comes just shy of the old record (-13.2°C in 1988). It's incredible how we've been so cold all month and have yet to break one single daily temperature record...
ReplyDeleteNow about tomorrow's system. I think it will remain as snow here in Winnipeg and for much of southern Manitoba. This is in large part because the precipitation looks to fall earlier rather than later. Also, it doesn't look like temperatures aloft will favour otherwise as well (expected to remain sub-freezing). However, it will be a very wet snow because we will be only a touch below the freezing mark.
Snow will fall in southwestern Manitoba later this evening into the overnight hours tonight and push into the RRV by sunrise. Snow will end early in the morning in southwestern Manitoba and push out of the RRV by around noon or early afternoon or so. If this timing changes I'll be sure to let you know.
As a result, this looks like a quick system. However, precipitation could be heavy at times in the morning here in the RRV, which will give quick accumulations. I'm expecting 3-5 cm in and around Winnipeg, locally higher amonunts definitely possible.
A chance of flurries will remain in the afternoon and evening, but it shouldn't accumulate to much as temperatures rise above zero, also allowing much of the morning's snow to melt.
Colder temperatures return Monday with highs struggling to exceed the freezing mark, which will be close to record low maximums. Monday night looks cold again with lows in the minus teens possible which means we will once again just flirt with record lows.
Normal daily highs over the next 5 days range from 13 to 16°C (using 1981-2010 normals) and lows between -1°C and +1°C.
Looks like timing is later than anticipated so yes there's no snow falling right now in the city but it will be falling later this morning. I'm just looking at the models right now and I'll give more details in 30-60 min.
ReplyDeleteSome light snow has already begun falling in the city, but the main snow will begin shortly. Right now I'm expecting 2-4 cm of snowfall for Winnipeg with snow ending sometime between noon and 2 pm. Temperatures will rise to around 2°C this afternoon which will allow much of this morning's snowfall to melt. Strong wind and localized heavy bursts of snow will give poor visibility and higher accumulations locally. That's how I'm seeing it right now after looking at radar trends and models..
ReplyDeleteMany models I'm seeing; GEM, GFS and now encouragingly, the ECMWF, have all come into the idea of a warmup by next weekend. I wont guarantee this yet and I wont say much more about that considering how this month has gone so far. I don't want to get hopes up for nothing...
I've already received about 1 cm as of 10:35 AM.
ReplyDeleteHeaviest band moving in soon. Snow could be very heavy locally:
ReplyDeletehttp://puu.sh/2ElMd
Visibility down to 600 metres at the airport under steady snow. 1.5 cm now at my place as of 11:40 am, however it has largely stopped accumulating due to melting therefore it doesn't look like I'll see significantly higher accumulations here.
ReplyDeleteSnow has ended; time to summarize the event:
ReplyDeleteGot a maximum accumulation of 2.7 cm of snowfall at my place today... However, a large part of the snowfall melted on contact, explaining why that amount is low. Also measured 3.1 mm of total precipitation (melted snowfall). Again, that precipitation amount is higher than the snowfall amount because a lot of the snow melted on contact. In brief:
2.7 cm of ACCUMULATED snowfall
3.1 mm of precipitation (melted snowfall)
We shouldn't get any more snow. Maybe a few snowflakes at times, but nothing that is noteworthy.
More sunshine than anticipated late this afternoon is allowing temperatures to spike upwards all the way to +4°C at the airport as of 4 pm. Will be a close call to +5°C!
ReplyDeleteWarmup this coming weekend keeps looking more and more certain. Question right now is just how warm it will get and how long it will last. So far it looks brief; we may be back to chilly conditions as soon as Tuesday.. but that's a long ways off still... I wont have a new post until Thursday or Friday.
ReplyDeleteOld record low tomorrow is -12.8°C in 1909. We'll come close to that tonight with a low between -10 and -12°C expected.
ReplyDeleteDue to the warmer weather moving in, the thundercast will finally open on Thursday April 25, whether there's a chance of storms or not.
ReplyDeleteIS there a potential for thunderstorms JJ? As such as the GFS is pointing at on Saturday and Sunday if we warm into the teens & possibly 20C. GFS has been consistent with that for the past few days...
ReplyDeleteBased on the GFS, yeah I suppose a few rumbles of thunder would be possible on Sunday; but certainly nothing strong. Front timing, cloud cover and modest moisture look like potential issues that could arise from my point of view.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking foreward to seeing what the NAM has to say tomorrow..
NAM has us at over 1,000 J/KG in terms of CAPE Saturday Evening, it could very well get interesting. Look at Spotwx.com
ReplyDeleteSorry for the slow response Mike.. (Finally finished exams! =) )
ReplyDeleteThe NAM does look interesting... Definitely much more moisture to work with than what the GFS suggests. Given the time of year, it's a little unusual to have that much moisture to work with (but after March 2012, I think we've learned anything can happen around here...) Will have to see if the trend continues in the next few runs, I'm still not completely convinced we'll see much, but there's certainly a non-zero chance.