Here are some other lows that were seen across southern Manitoba this morning:
Community
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Morning low Sep 21, 2013
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Wasagaming
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-3.5°C
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Berens River
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-3.1°C
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Gimli Industrial
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-2.5°C
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Dauphin
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-1.5°C
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Emerson
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-1.4°C
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Fisher Branch
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-0.9°C
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Brandon
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-0.4°C
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Morden
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0.0°C
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However, most areas inside Winnipeg were spared of the sub-freezing temperatures with lows of 1.5°C at my place in south St Vital and 4.9°C at the The Forks. Thus, the growing season still continues inside city limits.
Next weather story will be some rain on Monday. Uncertainty on track of the system keeps rainfall amounts in question at this time, but heaviest hit areas could see 5-15 mm. It is possible that most of the rain may remain west of Winnipeg, but it is too early to guarantee this. Also of note is that the rain likely wont last all day so it wont be a complete washout of a day. There may even be a thunderstorm in the overnight and morning hours early in the day, but the risk is quite small.
Looking more and more like a non-event for Winnipeg tomorrow. We still have a good chance at some shower activity, but bulk is expected to stay to our west with 5-15 mm expected in southwestern Manitoba. A thunderstorm still remains possible, but not highly likely.
ReplyDeleteA more potent system from south of the border may affect southern Manitoba in the Thursday-Friday timeframe with more widespread rainfall possible. So far models keep the heaviest rain west and north of the RRV.
There actually ended up being a lot of thunderstorm activity in southern Manitoba overnight.. and a lot still persists this morning west and southwest of the city. So far everything has missed Winnipeg, but there is the possibility that we may get brushed by a storm in the next few hours. Hopefully we get SOMETHING......
ReplyDeleteHighs today to depend on cloud cover. If we manage to get lots of sun today, then highs between 24 and 26°C are definitely possible today in Winnipeg. If we remain fairly cloudy then we'd only reach the low 20's.
ReplyDeleteStorm wise, looks like Winnipeg is ending up right on the edge of things for the gazillionth time this year. Still a chance something may skirt by or through the city later though.
ReplyDeleteWell, once again Winnipeg missed out completely on all the action as has been the story of 2013. Now it's just a fantastic breezy warm late September day which is great....looks like we may have a shot at 26C or so today with temps already at 23C under plenty of sunshine.
ReplyDeleteHigh ended up being 26.8°C at Winnipeg airport today.
DeleteWill have to watch how quick temperatures dive this evening because we have a shot at breaking an high minimum record today. The morning low was 17.1°C this morning and the old high minimum record for today is 16.7°C in 1930.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately the airport dipped to 15.5°C before midnight last night. No record broken.
DeleteDepending on what happens with the system in western Manitoba for Wednesday-Thursday, Winnipeg may have a shot at a top 5 driest September on record for the second year in a row! September last year was the second driest on record with just 4.0 mm.
ReplyDeleteTop 5 driest Septembers
1. 1.3 mm (1948)
2. 4.0 mm (2012)
3. 6.1 mm (1938)
4. 8.6 mm (1897)
5. 9.9 mm (1976)
Rainfall in September 2013 AS OF Sep 23 = 3.5 mm
Will be interesting to see what happens with that system later this week... it would quite phenomenal to have a top 5 driest September for 2 years in a row.
Thundercast reopened for today due to a good risk for storms in western parts of southern Manitoba tonight. Some may be severe, mainly due to strong winds and heavy rains if storms begin trailing over the same areas. There is a small risk of a storm in the Winnipeg area tomorrow morning and early afternoon.
ReplyDeleteHow warm are thinking it'll get tomorrow? Will the strong south winds make things warmer or cooler? Usually the south wind creates warmer temps. would it be the stronger the south wind warmer it is or more logically making it a bit cooler because the wind is usually cooler then the air temp?
ReplyDeleteHigh tomorrow will depend on cloud cover and whether or not we get some rain/storm activity.
DeleteIf we manage to remain fairly sunny like we did today, then we'd likely see highs in the mid twenties once again (24 to 26°C or maybe even 27°C if it's a perfectly sunny day (unlikely)). Otherwise, highs will be lower if we remain fairly cloudy.
And one thing: the wind isn't ''cooler than the air temperature''. It will feel cooler to you when the wind blows on you, however that is due to other processes that don't have to do with air temperature (for example the wind will help evaporate the sweat on your skin.. or it will ''blow away'' the warm layer that your body creates right above your skin... both of which make you feel cooler).
Thats intresting, I never new that.
Deletei noticed the comment format changed, did you do that or did blogspot update?
ReplyDeleteLooks like google did that.. I didn't do anything.
DeleteLooks like we won't be getting much rain here in the peg. I wonder how long we will keep dodging precipitation. Click on my name and you'll now what i mean.
ReplyDeleteConsidering all the misses this summer, I have never been more doubtful of a rainfall event but we'll see. It will be a close call for the RRV and Winnipeg on Saturday.
DeleteJust 5.0 mm of rain at the airport so far this month and 6.7 mm at my place... very similar to September last year when just 4.0 mm fell at the airport (2nd driest Sep on record) and 7.2 mm at my place.
Looking for this awesome summerlike weather to continue? Well, it looks like we are in luck. After a brief cooldown for Friday and Saturday, it's back to temps in the 20s. In fact it looks like mid 20s are likely next week. Looking further down the road, long range guidance is showing a continuance of warmer than normal temps and below normal precip into the 2nd week of October. Bring it on.
ReplyDeleteI shouldn't say mid 20s are likely but rather possible especially 1st half of next week.
ReplyDeleteSevere thunderstorm warning issued for Swan River area of western Manitoba this evening. Cannot recall the last time we had severe storms this late in the year in Manitoba...
ReplyDeleteNot much rain with that rain this morning unfortunately. Once again the west side of the city got hardest hit with 5.6 mm in Charleswood and 5.5 mm at the airport. Just 1.6 mm here in south St Vital.
ReplyDeleteSo much for that warm dry day that was advertised for today. Although we sure could use some rain right now.
ReplyDeleteI did have a chance of showers or storms today... but unfortunately it doesn't look like we will clear out this afternoon considering all of the low cloud behind the rain today. Looks like we'll top out around or just above 20°C today.
DeleteJJ, is Saturday's rain event a virtual miss for Winnipeg again?
ReplyDeleteNot necessarily. American models have been trending northwestwards with the rainfall and becoming more in line with the canadian and european model. However, Winnipeg is still expected to be right on the edge of things (wow BIG surprise). At this point it looks like the heaviest rains will remain to our south and east with 15-30 mm or more expected. Amounts to the west will drop off quickly so it's hard to say how much Winnipeg will get right now. We may just get a few mm is the system ends up too far east, or we may get into the 5-15 mm amounts if things push a bit further west. Amounts for Winnipeg will be very sensitive on the track of the system.
DeleteEither way, cloud cover will likely keep us much cooler Saturday with highs only reaching the low to mid teens.
Things then warm up nicely to start next week with temperatures in the 20's for Monday and Tuesday.
JJ, any chance the temps in the twenties persists beyond Monday and Tuesday next week or not likely?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
EC says so.
DeleteSunday and Monday look like the warmest days, potentially reaching the mid 20's. Tuesday more like low 20's as a cold front passes, cooling things down mid week back to the teens.... at least that's how it looks right now, it's still far away.
DeleteJJ,
ReplyDeleteI'm curious when winnipeg get's it's first snowfall in the 1981-2010 normal.
Thank you,
Walter
Here's the 1981-2010 normals for Winnipeg (snowfall data from 1981-2003 is from the airport and 2004-2010 is from Charleswood):
DeleteOctober 9 is the normal first snowflake of the fall season (in other words the first trace cm or more snowfall)
October 18 is the normal first accumulative snowfall of the fall season (in other words the first snowfall of at least 0.2 cm)
The good news is that models continue to suggest temps at seasonal or above seasonal for the foreseeable future...Let's hope that's the case.
ReplyDeleteConsensus is that the heaviest rains will remain in extreme southeastern Manitoba and along the Ontario border tonight and tomorrow where 20-30 mm of rainfall is possible. It's looking very likely though that Winnipeg will get some rain as well, but more like 5-15 mm.... less if things end up too far east.
ReplyDeleteSo it will basically be off and on shower's all day or what?
DeleteUnlike today's scattered shower regime, tomorrow's rain is a more consistent long-lived rainfall. Bulk of it should be in the morning and afternoon before tapering off to end the day.
DeleteNice to finally see the ''Perimeter shield'' is not at play today. Looks like we'll be in this rainfall for a good part of the afternoon, albeit lighter than it was early this morning.
ReplyDeleteTotals as of 8:15 am: (since midnight)
11.2 mm South St Vital (me)
10.2 mm Charleswood
Totals as of 8 am: (since midnight)
Dugald 14.6 mm
Steinbach 12.7 mm
Letellier 11.8 mm
Morris 10.2 mm
Carman 7.1 mm
However of note, Sprague received 49.4 mm of rainfall yesterday from all that thunderstorm activity in the morning and has received over 20 mm of rainfall so far today!
For once the western half of the city isn't hogging all the rain. Seem's like it's the first time all year the eastern half of the city is getting more rain!
ReplyDeleteNot a big difference but it's true that that end of the city isn't hogging it all this time.
DeleteAmounts as of 11:55 am (since midnight):
18.0 mm U of W (downtown)
17.8 mm South St Vital (me)
16.8 mm Charleswood
Incredibly, despite this being only a modest rain event, it is the most rain I have received here in South St Vital in 3 months, since a 30.6 mm event on June 25-26.
St Vitals up to 22.1 as of now.
DeleteDownpour in River height's. I'm up to 17.1 as of 12:15.
ReplyDeleteRain is over for today. Grand total since midnight includes 24.4 mm in Charleswood and 24.9 mm at my place in south St Vital. Will have a post with rainfall amounts either tonight or tomorrow morning. I might go out and take some fall pictures tomorrow morning however if the sun is out.
ReplyDeleteThere could be a bit of patchy fog overnight tonight and tomorrow morning in the RRV and southeastern Manitoba thanks to all the lingering surface moisture from today's rain. Not a guarantee it will form, but the possibility is there.
ReplyDelete