Wednesday, 20 November 2013

January in November

     The next few days will feel much more like January than November in southern Manitoba.

     Snow will be moving into the Winnipeg area this evening from North Dakota. It has already moved into southwestern Manitoba and areas along the US border this afternoon. The snow will move out overnight or early morning tomorrow, making for a slippery drive to work tomorrow morning. Heaviest amounts are expected to be along the US border where 5-10 cm is expected. This includes the Killarney, Morden, Emerson and Sprague regions. Steinbach may get into these totals as well depending on how long and intense the snow lasts. The Winnipeg and Brandon areas should get accumulations in the 3-6 cm range. Winds will be a little breezy with drifting snow.

     A surge of unseasonably frigid arctic air moves in tomorrow. Highs in the mid to high minus teens are anticipated.

     A southerly flow ahead of a weak clipper system for Friday will actually cause our temperatures to rise tomorrow night, and potentially up into the minus single digits by midday Friday. Some flurries are possible on Friday with this system, but minimal accumulations are expected.

     Temperatures plummet Friday night as we will likely drop into the -20's for the first time since April. We'll likely only reach the mid minus teens for a high on Saturday.

     Some warmer air moves in on Sunday as we rise into the minus single digits, thanks to another clipper system. Some flurries are possible. Unfortunately, unseasonably cold weather is expected to continue next week.

23 comments:

  1. Edmonton actually dropped to -33.6°C this morning, which occurred after I commented about Edmonton this morning.

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    1. Thats weird, I've always imagined the coldest time of night to be midnight.

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    2. Not at all. The surface constantly loses heat throughout the entire night. As a result, the coldest time of day tends to most often be around or just after sunrise.

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    3. Of course, this is in general. Cold air advection during the day can cause temperatures to fall even during the day sometimes. Similarly, warm air advection or an incoming cloud bank at night can cause temperatures to rise.

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    4. Interesting, you really know A LOT about weather.

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  2. Up to 1 cm in south Winnipeg as of 9:20 pm. 3-6 cm still looks like a good range. Heavier snow bands south and east of the city, missing Winnipeg.

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  3. Calling it a grand total of 3.4 cm at my place. Higher amounts on west side of city with 4.6 cm recorded near Sturgeon Creek and more than 5 cm at Rob's in Charleswood.

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  4. JJ, do you see any indications of perhaps any big snowfalls in Southern Manitoba from now into the 1st week of December?

    Thanks, Anon

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    1. No massive snowfalls being seen in model land right now. There will be quick clipper systems every few days however, similar to last night for example. Some may bring just some flurry activity while others may give a few cm.

      The cold temperatures are expected to continue into the foreseeable future, with only brief warmups associated with clipper systems.

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  5. 0.6 cm here overnight with just under 0.4 mm water-equivalent giving a ratio of 16:1.

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  6. Will be interesting to see how cold we get tonight! Looks very likely we'll hit -20°C for the first time this season. You can vote in the poll I setup to guess what you think it will get down at Winnipeg airport tonight.

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    1. Old record low tomorrow is -31.7°C in 1884, so don't think we'll be breaking records.

      The conditions in Saskatchewan today are incredible for this time of year. Daytime highs in the mid to high minus -20's, and pressure around 105.0 kPa! Can't remember the last time we've had pressure that high!

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    2. Sounds great!

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  7. The 18 hour RAP model has a low of -28.4 at 7:00 AM and it may well get colder because the ends at 7:00! Brr!

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    1. Wouldn't surprise me if the airport got that cold. With fairly clear skies and a light northwest wind, seems like a good setup for the airport to plunge in temperatures. For now I'm calling for mid -20's.

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    2. Yeah, thats a good point, because the airport is the official temp.

      And by the way JJ, is the poll for tomorrow mornings low at the airport or your place?

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    3. Thanks, Anon.

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  8. I settled on -26--27.9 for the poll.

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  9. Geez, cannot believe these temperatures for this time of year. Already -31°C in Regina at 11 pm. Will be interesting to see the lows tomorrow morning!

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  10. Some of the coldest lows in Saskatchewan last night:

    Prince Alberta, SK -35.8°C
    Moose Jaw, SK -30.1°C

    Regina's low is unknown as far as I'm concerned. The weather station data is all messed up there and I'm having a hard time finding the data for that city. In the hourly data is shows it got down to -31°C, but the only synoptic report I could find for Regina shows a low of -30.2°C

    Will have other lows, including Winnipeg's this afternoon.

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