Highs just above zero are expected today under beautiful sunny skies and a light breeze.
Temperatures wont drop much tonight thanks to a continued southerly breeze at the surface along with very warm air moving in aloft. Lows in the high minus single digits are expected.
Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the high single digits likely (above zero!). Given the moderate westerly wind at the surface, a light downslope effect off the escarpment could even push temperatures close to 9°C or 10°C in the western RRV around Morden and Portage la Prairie. Of course these warm temperatures are assuming we get a good deal of sunshine and only some high cloud. It is also of note that weather models have been having a lot of trouble handling temperatures tomorrow, especially due to uncertainties about snow pack (some weather models are fooled into thinking there's snow on the ground right now). For example, the NAM only gives a high of 2°C tomorrow, however it keeps us fairly cloudy and has us with snow cover on the ground. It will be interesting to see if it does get as warm as my forecast!
A weak clipper system moves in on Thursday ushering in some cooler temperatures and snow flurries. Minimal accumulations are expected with perhaps up to 1 cm. However, I think it may be a little too warm for too much accumulation.
Another clipper system moves in this weekend which could bring some more significant accumulations depending on track. If the system pushes too far north, we may start with rain and then change to snow but only get minimal accumulations with highest amounts to our north. However, if the system pushes further south we could be talking about some higher accumulations. Stay tuned..
Wow may even get warmer than my predicted high of 2°C today. Other than my forecast, I could only find the weathernetwork predicting a high that high today. If we get sunshine tomorrow, I think it's quite likely we'll reach the high single digits... just need that sun!
ReplyDeleteNAM was predicting a high of -2°C today, so hopefully its high of 2°C tomorrow gets busted badly again which is likely.
Now the GEM has 8 Cm for the clipper sunday, just from 10 am to 7 pm.
ReplyDeleteGFS is much more tame with just 2 cm. My hope is that the system mainly stays to our north.
DeleteEither way, we get back into the deep freeze behind the system with temperatures similar to what we have experienced yesterday to start next week. So far this cool down, like yesterday's, looks brief, but that's so far ahead right now.
Looks like a very mild day today. Strong westerly winds overnight have helped to mix down the warmer air aloft to the surface in parts of southern Manitoba. Dauphin was sitting at 8°C OVERNIGHT. Areas around Portage and Morden are already sitting at 7°C this morning. Looks like highs around 10 or 11°C are possible there today, and 9-10°C in much of southwestern Manitoba. I'm saying 8-9°C for Winnipeg at this time.
ReplyDeleteThese are not warm enough for records however. For example, Winnipeg's old record today is 17.4°C in 2007.
DeleteWow, an already balmy 7C today. Just how warm will it get, we'll have to wait and see later today but 10C is certainly not out of the question.
ReplyDeleteWarmest as of 1 pm is the Melita-Pierson area at 12.4°C. Much of the RRV is between 9 and 12°C. Not surprising that it got this warm today given such warm air moving in aloft and abundant sunshine.
ReplyDeleteJJ, what's the latest on the potential for snow over the weekend?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
It's actually turned into a Colorado Low type of situation for Saturday night into Sunday.. however from the looks of things, the consensus right now is that the bulk of the precipitation (and snow) will stay to our east. Our best chance for precipitation and snow will be associated with an arctic front which will slide down late Saturday, ushering in much colder air. So far amounts look insignificant... if we were to get accumulation, based on current indications I wouldn't expect more than a couple cm.
DeleteBut we'll see.. it's still a few more days away...
Luckily the cool down so far looks brief, similar to this earlier this week.
Thanks for the info JJ....as far as i'm concerned it can go ahead and miss us. Not ready for the snow yet as i'm sure most of us aren't. The longer we are snow free the better as far as i'm concerned.
ReplyDeleteJJ, do you see any type of warmup like we had yesterday and especially today next week after that cool shot to start the week of course if we are still snow free that is?
Assuming we have no snow on the ground, it does look like we may get a day or two above zero again, but it's too far away to confirm... probably not as warm as today, but we'll see. By then record highs are in the low teens in general and soon in the single digits so this type of warmth will just get harder and harder to achieve.
DeleteAnd agreed, the snow can stay away until Christmas. The roads are bad enough without it in many ways. ;)
DeleteThanks, Anon
ReplyDelete