Sunday, 22 December 2013

Bad News for Holiday Travellers on Christmas Eve

     Before I get to the snowfall I'd like to mention about temperatures tonight. It is likely that we'll dip below -30°C tonight, and it is possible that we may get as low as the mid -30's if conditions set up good enough. The best chance for lows in the mid to low -30's will be in the Interlake and southwestern Manitoba. The coldest spots could see lows dip as low as -35 to -38°C. Will be interesting to see how cold we get.

     Temperatures will rise ahead of a system tomorrow night as winds veer to become southerly.

     There's bad news for travellers however for Christmas Eve Tuesday. A system to our north will provide the opportunity for snow and blowing snow. The snow may be heavy at times, especially under any local heavier bands that develop. A general 3-7 cm is expected south of the lakes, with locally higher totals of 10 cm not out of the question under any heavier bands that form. In the Winnipeg area, the snow is expected to begin in the early morning and end in the afternoon.

     However, the big story on the highways will be wind. Strong southerly winds will create dangerous highway conditions due to blowing snow. If possible, consider travelling on Monday instead of Tuesday. Will provide another update tomorrow in case things change a bit.

     Another push of frigid air moves in behind the system for Christmas day, however it is not expected to last very long with some milder air expected late week.
Publié par à l'adresse

7 comments:

  1. JeffDecember 22, 2013 4:03 pm

    Hi JJ,
    do you think blizzard conditions are possible tuesday, with the combination of snow and strong south winds?
    Thanks, Jeff

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    1. jjcwpgDecember 22, 2013 6:27 pm

      Near blizzard conditions possible in rural areas, but I don't see a full-blown blizzard with this at this time. Winds may be just a tad too weak for that, but we'll see. Winds are expected to be strongest in the AM hours so if anyone HAS to travel that day, the later in the day the better.

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  2. jjcwpgDecember 22, 2013 6:32 pm

    Would not be surprised if it got colder than the -34°C I predicted in the Winnipeg forecast for tonight. GEM Regional giving lows of -37°C which is not out of the question. Pretty much impossible we'll break a record low tomorrow. Dec 23, 1879 was one of the coldest days in Winnipeg's history, with a low of -44.4°C.

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  3. jjcwpgDecember 22, 2013 7:05 pm

    I've calculated that of the top 20 coldest Decembers since 1873, the chance that January will be below normal or above normal is close to 50%. Therefore, this method definitely doesn't help in determining what's the best chance of what this January will be like. It could go either way. However, so far this coming January is looking to at least start cold.

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  4. jjcwpgDecember 23, 2013 7:33 am

    As of 6 am the low at the airport was -34.3°C. Will let you know what the official low was this afternoon.

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    Replies
    1. jjcwpgDecember 23, 2013 7:36 am

      Meanwhile, it got close to -40°C around the lakes again, including -39.0°C in Fisher Branch and -39.7°C in Berens River as of 6 am.

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  5. jjcwpgDecember 23, 2013 7:43 am

    Models have significantly weakened tomorrow's snowfall with a general 1-3 cm now the consensus instead of 3-7 cm. However, if travelling on the highways it's the wind that will be the issue causing drifting and blowing snow. Again, the worst of the wind will be in the morning.

    There are hints at this time of a stronger clipper system for late Friday into Saturday which could bring some heavier snowfall. Note that I will not be around to provide updates, therefore keep in touch with Rob's Blog and A Weather Moment for updates on the system.

    Meanwhile, Merry Christmas, happy holidays and have a great New Year to everyone!

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