A little cloudier and hazier for the RRV today, but we should still see lots of sun. Highs are a little tricky given the cloudier skies, but high 20's look likely. If we managed to stay sunny all day, it could even get close to 30°C.
Hot conditions continue tomorrow with highs likely close to 30°C. There is a chance for some showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, including the morning. It will be a little humid as well, with humidex values in the mid 30's.
Friday has the potential to be one of the hottest days this summer. Temperatures will likely push 30°C, possibly reaching as high as 32°C or so. It will be humid with humidex values possibly reaching high 30's. Not all models are agreeing on it getting this hot on Friday, so I'll be sure to update in the comments if things start turning the other way.
Another hot one on Saturday with temperatures exceeding 30°C. A stronger cold front moving in sometime Saturday night into early Sunday could bring our first organised round of thunderstorms in a long time. Severe activity would be possible. Cooler for Sunday behind the front, likely only reaching mid 20's or so.
It is amazing how accurate your forecast comments are.When I look at the maps on My WeatherFarm App I can visualise the results easily.I believe they use the ag network contributers.I have TWN app as well as a few others but WF for my limited knowledge is the best.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think of these apps available Do you have a favorite.?
Call me old fashioned, but I don't use any weather apps. I can't provide any opinions as a result.
DeleteI have to agree with you. Until I tried wf app the results were never consistent on both sdes of the border ex a weather moment which had some awesome graphics. For info and forecast I stay with yours rohs and AWMoment. For graphics not pics i use WF
DeleteJJ, i've been hearing rumblings that a cooler weather pattern will be returning at mid month. What are your thoughts on this?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
Tough to say at this point. I don't see a return to an extended period of well below conditions for the near-future just yet. Hopefully that continues. We cool down slightly behind the front for Sunday and Monday, but it looks like things warm up again for mid week.
DeleteJJ, I'm in Grand Forks right now I'm just wondering what the odds are of storms Thursday to saturday once I head back to Winnipeg tomorrow. Thanks...
ReplyDeleteStorm chances do exist tomorrow into Friday but it's look mainly scattered in nature but wouldn't rule out severe storms given the increase in instability. Better chance for a more organized storm event Saturday night along the cold front and those may very well be severe.
ReplyDeleteMike, Anon summed it up very well.
ReplyDeleteCloudier than expected for today. Some showers are likely later, and there could even be a few rumbles of thunder. As a result, daytime high forecasts are a struggle again. If we stay under thick cloud all day and we get lots of shower activity, we may only reach mid to high 20's. If things clear out earlier than expected this afternoon, we may get close to 30°C.
Tomorrow looks much sunnier, at least for now. Can't rule out debris cloud from leftover storms from Saskatchewan early in the day I suppose. If we get enough sun, we should manage to reach at least 30°C, perhaps 31°C. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening, but things will be quite scattered in nature, so hard to say if we'll get anything. Anything that develops could be severe tomorrow.
Hot and sunny on Saturday with highs around 31-32°C if we get enough sun. Vigorous cold front moves through Saturday night with a round of showers and thunderstorms, perhaps severe, possible.
Much cooler behind the front for Sunday, only reaching low, perhaps mid 20's.
Most models did not show that thunderstorm complex moving into southwestern Manitoba for today. Hard to say if we'll get anything in Winnipeg tonight as a result; there are some storms popping up along the escarpment. It is possible some of these may drift in this evening, but obviously it is hard to feel even a bit of optimism these days. Will also have to watch for another complex of storms possibly moving into western Manitoba overnight from Saskatchewan if anything manages to develop there today.
ReplyDeleteLooks like that complex of storms did materialize for southwestern Manitoba overnight. It has since weakened substantially, but there are some pop-ups now developing just west of Winnipeg. Looks like Winnipeg could get some downpours and maybe thunder within the next hour.
ReplyDeleteReport of crashing thunder and frequent lightning in extreme northwest Winnipeg. Interesting looking storm from south Winnipeg.
DeleteWell, i'd say that was a little unexpected this morning. Perhaps another surprise or two may be in the offing again at some point today. I don't expect that to happen but as the saying goes, expect the unexpected.
ReplyDeleteDaytime high forecasts are very tricky for today given this cloud, rain and storms this morning. Just to make things even more difficult, redevelopment of storms are possible again this afternoon. Depending on sunshine, highs anywhere from 26 to 31°C could occur in Winnipeg today. Anything that develops this afternoon could be locally severe.
ReplyDeleteAnother tricky forcast for tomorrow because there is the potential for more leftover showers and thunderstorms from Saskatchewan early in the day. Best risk will be further north, but can't rule out thicker cloud here than expected. Assuming enough sunshine, highs reaching 30°C would be possible. Pop up thunderstorm can't be ruled out through the day, but the main storm risk will come late evening into the overnight on Sunday as a vigorous cold front pushes through. Best risk for severe activity will likely stay to our west and north.
Much cooler air mass over us for Sunday behind the front. Only expecting a high around 22 to 24°C. Similar for Monday. We heat up again mid-late week.
There was also quite the storm just east of Lake Winnipeg overnight southeast of Bloodvein and northwest of Bissett. Radar estimates point to 60-125 mm due to the fact it was almost stationary. Luckily, this wasn't in a very populated area.
ReplyDeleteAlready up to 29.6°C at 3 pm. 30°C looking likely for today. Humidex values getting close to 40. Still can't rule out an isolated shower or storm this evening, but best risk may stay to our northwest and east.
ReplyDeletelooks like some severe t-storms have developed in western sk, with a nice hook echo on one. jj, do you think that these storms could could turn into a nocturnal complex (and mcs of some sort) for parts of mb tonight (i'm hoping the rrv)?
ReplyDeletethanks, anon
Unfortunately, anything that continues through the night is expected to move more towards the northeast instead of straight east. Can't rule out some nocturnal storms tonight though, but not from that complex in southwestern Saskatchewan.
DeleteAccurate forecasts for today consistent at least as far back to this blog's post on the sixth Jj
ReplyDeleteA reminder that thunderstorm activity remains possible through the night. There is an area of altocumulus just west and north of Winnipeg at this time that does look interesting right now (it does have some vertical development to it). Could produce some showers or thunderstorms later tonight in the form of elevated thunderstorm activity. Not a gurantee it will produce anything, but the chance is there. Best risk tonight appears to be north and west of Winnipeg, but can't rule out anything here too.
ReplyDeleteThats quite the gust front in southeastern ab; at 7:00 pm it was 30ºC if a 10 km/h westerly wind; at 8:00 pm it was 22ºC with a north wind gusting to 70 km/h... And there was probably localized gust much higher then that.
ReplyDeleteSorry, these conditions are in medicine hat, ab.
ReplyDeleteStill a risk for storms? AltoCumulus is no longer present
ReplyDeleteStorm risk continues, albeit is quite low.
DeleteUnfortunately, nothing materialised overnight around here. Everything stayed in the Interlake and southwestern Manitoba.
ReplyDeleteOne last hot and humid day before things cool down. I think we've got a good shot at 30°C today. Humidex values will be in the mid to high 30's.
Main risk for thunderstorms will be this evening and overnight for us as the cold front pushes through. It's quite uncertain at this time if Winnipeg will even get anything. A very significant lack of shear with today's setup in southern Manitoba is a major concern, especially the further south you go. Shear is a little better to the north in the Parklands and Interlake, so I think that will be the area with a higher chance for a more widespread severe event. I'm very hesitant to issue a slight severe risk, so I've only got an isolated severe risk in my thundercast for now but may reissue a slight risk later this morning or early this afternoon once I relook at things. There is the potential that storm may weaken substantially before reaching the RRV, thus, the uncertainty of wether we'll get anything here or not.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch now in place for much of Southern MB except for the RRV and the Southeast for now. E.C. does elude to the fact that an MCS type system will move in in the RRV overnight in their FOCN 45 weather Discussion.
ReplyDeleteI sure hope so... I'm just hoping it doesn't weaken or dissipate too much before reaching here.
DeleteYeah, I agree. JJ, are you seeing any hints of cooldowns in the long range over the next couple of weeks?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
After this little cool down early week, things warmup back closer to seasonal or even a bit above for the remainder of the week into next weekend. Hard to say what will occur after that, models aren't agreeing at this time. I think we'll continue to see conditions fairly close to normal for the next couple weeks in general.
DeleteJJ, do you think the forecast high of 24 or 25 C from E.C. for tomorrow is a bit too optimistic?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
I'm calling for something more around 22-23°C, but it will depend somewhat on how much sunshine there is in the afternoon. 24°c possible if we see more sun than cloud.
DeleteNew update to the thundercast. I'll be updating a bit more regularly than usual today.
ReplyDeleteShould note that there could be a few pop-up thunderstorms ahead of the front in the RRV and southeastern Manitoba this afternoon as well, but much more isolated in nature.
DeleteMoisture is deep in Winnipeg....RH is between 75%-95% between 950 and 800mb. Shear is lacking meaning storms if any that is, moves over us will be very slow movers which equals to heavy rains.
ReplyDeleteIn their 2 PM update, the PASPC FOCN 45 discussion mentions the storms moving thru Winnipeg around midnight then will gradually weaken thereafter so we'll see.
ReplyDeleteStorms in southwestern Manitoba not overly impressive so far. Looks like gusty winds and some localized pockets of small to marginally-severe hail. Not surprising given the lack of shear today.
ReplyDeleteyeah, looking even worse now. all the action is getting fired up in to the interlake. I doubt we get any thing. god dammit all.
DeleteThankfully, it's not over yet. Redevelopment will continue to be possible through the evening. Already seeing some just south of the border and east of Brandon.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, I'm liking how things are looking for Winnipeg at this point. We've got a very good chance of seeing at least SOMETHING later this evening. Heavy rains under slow-moving storms will be the main threat.
DeleteOnly got to 28.7°C at the airport today. Still looking good for something in Winnipeg later this evening. Certainly doesn't look like we'll get anything very strong, but the slow-moving nature of the storms could dump some high rainfall amounts locally. Hail and wind don't look like major threats at this time. Some small hail may fall in the heaviest storms, but nothing major expected. Unfortunately, storms are pulsy in nature and are struggling to organise given the lack of shear.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I agree, looks like that cell west of portage has the best chance of hitting us. But don't get your hopes up at all, as previously mentioned there is very low shear, so it would half to keep marching westword for along time; not many storms have done that today. We'll see only time will tell...
DeleteYeah, very pulsy. A few cells develop then weaken and others soon develop afterwards. Definitely possible we get nothing if things pop up all around us and miss us.
DeleteJust saw a quick flash of lighting looking west. Thats hopeful..
ReplyDeleteI apologize if your comments don't come up immediately. For some reason, blogger is putting them into spam without my consent right now so I have to manually accept them for the time being. Hopefully this doesn't last.
ReplyDeleteThats fine, haven't noticed anything with mine.
DeleteAs far as the storms... have also been seeing strikes to the west, and lighting detection & radar indicate that "that cell west of Portage" lifting north, and thus probably not giving us anything. Cell used to continue south of portage (or maybe another, can't really tell) , but that's since melted away. Looks like the perimeter are in action today, wouldn't really expect anything more, but I pray and I pray.
Hard to say if it's really weakening or not. There might be a bit of attenuation from the cell directly south of the radar site. There's still lots of lightning from it according to lightning detection. We'll see how the next few runs trend.
DeleteI think i'm going to head out to the west or north west perimeter to get a good light show.
ReplyDeleteCell moving towards the city is strengthening in latest radar runs. However, it may collapse like what the other storms have been doing so far today. Wait and see...
ReplyDeleteEither way, we're getting a nice light show!!
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