We can finally say goodbye to this low pressure system that has plagued us since last Friday. Due to uncertainty about where convection would form south of the border and also uncertainty in the exact position of the deformation boundary, this was a particularly difficult system to predict for the Winnipeg area. In fact, at times the boundary cut the city in half, which is the reason why amounts were highest in southern sections.
The following map summarises rainfall totals from midnight Saturday to 5 am this morning across southern Manitoba, using data from Environment Canada and Cocorahs. I encourage you to click the map to enlarge; I apologize for the poor sizing.
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| Click to enlarge. Data from Environment Canada and Cocorahs |
The full Environment Canada summary can be seen here.
The heavy rains in the southwestern RRV east of the escarpment has created flooding problems according to Global Winnipeg.
And here's rainfall amounts in the Winnipeg area for the same period. Note the large difference from north to south in the city. Again you may have to click to enlarge, sorry about that.
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| Data from robsobs, gorilla weather, cocorahs and Envinronment Canada |
We will thankfully see some sunshine today; much welcomed. The sun will remain for Wednesday and Thursday with highs reaching the high teens, and perhaps 20°C on Wednesday. Normal high for this time of year is around 19°C to 20°C (1981-2010 normals)
Looking for a warmup? There are hints that we may see a warmup to start the work week next week, but it's still a ways off to confirm how warm it could get. At this point, no prolonged warmups are to be seen with long-range models maintaining the idea of near normal temperatures for the next few weeks.
Extra:
The system this weekend spawned deadly tornadoes south of the border over the past 2 days. Dozens were killed in the southern subarbs of Oklahoma City yesterday as a very large and very strong tornado hit the populated area. Article about this here.
Unfortunately, the rain amounts are from 12 am Saturday only, therefore not including Friday's rain. I had to do this because that's what the EC summary has.
ReplyDeleteIf we included Friday, I got 34.9 mm at my place, 30.7 mm in Charleswood and Also 31 mm in Norwood.
OK, now that we got this storm behind us, enjoy the sun while we have it! :)
We really didn't get that much rain yesterday compared to what was expected sunday, on sunday we were looking at 20-30 MM of rain yesterday- all I got was 9.7 MM.
ReplyDeleteYeah, the limit of the rain didn't stay to our north as long as most models indicated.. thus rain was only moderate for a short period of time. Sure some impressive amounts to our south though so maybe it's not such a bad thing that most of it missed us. Sure nice seeing that sun again today =)
DeleteSmall risk of frost tomorrow night. I don't know about you Julien but I like to garden so hopefully we stay well above zero tomorrow night. Current guidance suggested that we'll stay around 4 degrees with EC being most extreme at 2 degrees and EURO being warmest at 6. Sense EC is automated EURO would (hopefully) be the better guidance. (:
ReplyDeleteJulien,
ReplyDeletedo you know what category the tornado was yesterday?
It was rated an EF-5
Deletehttp://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20130520
Julien,
ReplyDeletedo you use EC's forecast for the forecast on your blog. the highs and lows are the same as ec
No they're completely my own; I use various models. I had made the forecast this morning and it wasn't the same as EC this morning... So EC is the one that copied me (kidding) ;)
DeleteHere's a map by the city of Winnipeg of rain amounts from Sunday to Tuesday. They occasionally make maps like these on big rain events.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.winnipeg.ca/waterandwaste/pdfs/drainageFlooding/rainfallReports/130519Map.pdf
Light winds, clear skies along with dewpoints expected to drop to zero or slightly below will offer a chance for localized frost tonight in low-lying areas outside of the city core as temperatures drop to between 1 and 3°C. Areas deep inside the city, especially close to downtown, should be OK. Right now it doesn't look widespread..
ReplyDeleteBest risk for frost will be to our north in the Interlake and in the Parklands.
Second confirmed tornado of the year in Canada, confirmed in Ontario yesterday:
ReplyDeletehttp://puu.sh/2YZfj
No frost warnings issued so the frost potential is very low and localized. Not of significant concern at this time, especially in city limits. We'll have to see how fast temperatures drop this evening though.
ReplyDeleteI think your right Julien, if there is any frost in southern MB it won't be in Winnipeg thanks to urban pollution.
DeleteDewpoint in Elora, Ontario reached 21.7 today! Thats the highest in canada so far this year!:)
ReplyDeleteSome frosty lows from this morning:
ReplyDeleteArborg -2.5°C
Dauphin -2°C
McCreary -1°C
Ethelbert 0°C
Grandview 0°C
Ste. Rose 0°C
Swan Valley 0°C
Winnipeg got down to 2°C on the hourly obs, but may have got as low as 1°C in between observations... Warmer inside city limits; 5°C at The Forks and only down to 4.2°C at my place.
At my place it got down to 3.4 C.I did cover up the garden just in case.
DeleteBetter safe than sorry ;)
DeleteWe should be fine tonight, but areas to our east have an increased risk of getting frost tonight.
Looks like we could see some rain tomorrow night . About 5-10 MM at the most is expected over most of the RRV with locally higher amounts in western MB. My monthly rainfall so far is 35.1 MM, add Friday day night about 40 MM.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the report; I'm up to 37.0 mm so far.
DeleteI might have found a way to create polls, but I'm not entirely sure yet if this way is really the best. Therefore, here's a test to try it out:
ReplyDeletehttp://winnipegweatherpolls.weebly.com/polls.html
Let me know if there are any bugs/problems.
FROST warnings issued for a wide swath of southern Manitoba with colder temperatures than anticipated expected. This includes Winnipeg, however I think areas around downtown will be fine personally.
ReplyDeleteI woke up early this morning to see outside, and there was absolutely no frost at all, not even on roofs. Were you guys as lucky?
ReplyDelete