This front will bring showers along it. At this point, amounts do not look significant, with highest amounts expected north of the Trans-Canada. They will reach Winnipeg by late morning and only last perhaps an hour or so. 1-3 mm is expected with locally higher amounts possible. Behind the front, we will see some glimpses of sunshine this afternoon. Winds will veer to the north/northwest and become sustained near 40 km/h this afternoon.
A shot of unseasonably cold arctic air behind this front will make for a very chilly Mother's Day weekend. On Saturday, highs will struggle to exceed 5°C with highs only expected to reach 6 or 7°C. At least skies will be fairly clear, but it will still remain breezy from the northwest making it feel only colder than it actually is. Sunday will be a transition day as a MUCH warmer air mass starts moving in from the west. Nonetheless, highs in the low teens are expected on Mother's Day, still a good 5-8 degrees below normal.
As the warmer air moves in there may be a band of light showers Sunday night along the warm front, but if that does materialize, it does not look heavy at this point.
Temperatures will skyrocket on Monday as the real warm air moves in. Highs between 22 and 24°C are expected in Winnipeg. The warmest will be along the US Border in southwestern Manitoba where highs in the high 20's are expected. Unfortunately, it may be a windy day, but with temperatures like that we wont complain ;)
Tuesday may be the warmest day of the week in the RRV and southeastern Manitoba. Highs in the high 20's are definitely possible. In addition, it looks like we may even start pumping in some higher humidity from the south. It'll feel like summer! This increased humidity along with a low pressure system moving through the province could create our first good thunderstorm chance of the season. This is not entirely certain yet and models have been differing on this possibility, but I'll be sure to keep you all up to date on it.
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| Lots of great images like this one at Desivalley.com |
Forgot to mention there could also be some scattered showers in the wrap-around of this system late this afternoon and this evening. Scattered is the key word here, not everyone will see more precipitation.
ReplyDeleteRain over for now. Total of 1.6 mm at my place in south St Vital. Heavier amounts reported in Charleswood at 2.8 mm and 1.8 mm in Whyte Ridge.
ReplyDeleteScattered showers still expected late afternoon and evening.
Those scattered showers will be moving into the city within the next 45 minutes. These will continue on and off for a few hours before tapering off overnight. They could be heavy at times locally, but due to their fast-movement any downpours should be short-lived.
ReplyDeleteWhat's the latest on thunderstorm potential on Tuesday? Any chance that the low pressure system could fire off some of them given the current instability forecast? Thank's...
ReplyDeleteHey Mike,
ReplyDeleteI think we certainly could get some elevated storms and heavy rainfall on Tuesday morning; we'll be right on the nose of the llj, there will be a warm front nearby and shear looks strong. However, not all models agree on bringing this for Tuesday morning so it's still a little uncertain at this point. Nonetheless, I'm not expecting any severe-type storms Tuesday.
I'll update around lunch tomorrow Mike.
Wow all the way down to -7°C overnight! Unfortunately, this just happens to fall on one of the coldest May night's in 1918 at -10.0°C so we didn't break a record. If this were to have happened tomorrow, it may have been a record...
ReplyDeleteMy thunderstorm forecast hasn't changed a whole lot for Winnipeg. Best chance still looks like in the morning on Tuesday, for now anyway.
ReplyDeleteBased on what I'm seeing this afternoon as updates, it is possible the bulk of the storm activity may remain along and south of the US Border tomorrow morning. I'll wait until this evening's models before confirming this.
ReplyDeleteNote that several models have decreased rainfall amounts north of the Trans-Canada for tomorrow. Heaviest rainfall looks to fall in the central/northern Interlake and areas north of Dauphin, eastward from there to east of Lake Winnipeg. However, note that due to the convective nature of these rains, there could be locally heavier amounts in areas that get thunderstorms.
ReplyDeleteLooks like NAM faired not too bad for overnight and this morning with placement of the storm. Rains and storms hugged the International border. No lightning reported at this time with rain now east of Hwy 75 and will clear out in the next hour or two. We will also be clearing out here in Winnipeg in the next 30-60 minutes. In fact, I can already see the leading edge of blue sky to the west. This early sunshine will help us rise to the mid 20's today.
ReplyDeleteThere are thunderstorms pushing into the western part of the province however right now into the Parklands region between Dauphin and Swan River.
Making the forecasts (thundercast and Winnipeg forecast) right now.
Small little shower popped up just west of the city right now. Not a storm right now, but expect some cloudiness at minimum to come into the city soon with perhaps a shower or rumble of thunder.
ReplyDeleteReally starting to get going north of the city with clusters of storms forming. Still a chance we may get something here in the city today.
ReplyDeleteAirport jumped all the way to 26°C... didn't see that type of jump in all other parts of the city. Only 23°C at the Forks and 24°C at my place and Charleswood.
ReplyDeleteThreat for storms has mainly diminished for the RRV westward, but there's still a chance for a few rumbles this afternoon and early evening in western/southwestern Manitoba, but it will be more isolated than what is going on in eastern Manitoba right now.
Wow! Sutained wind of 70 km/h with gusts close to 90 km/h in Brandon this hour. Wind warnings issued for the area, also including Killarney and Morden regions.
ReplyDeletePreparing a post about the extreme weather we've seen here and south of the border this month so far. Will have it by midday tomorrow.
ReplyDelete