For tonight, a line of showers is expected to materialise across Manitoba along the low-level jet. This is expected to affect Winnipeg by sometime this evening then continue overnight and end sometime Saturday morning. 2-5 mm of rainfall is possible with locally higher amounts under any heavier bands. The low-level jet (llj) is expected to weaken as it moves east also dissipating the rainfall, therefore areas east of Lake Winnipeg may not even get a drop of rain tonight.
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| Anticipated rainfall amounts for tonight by the GEM regional model |
On Sunday, some showers and storms will be possible, especially in western areas of the province and along the US border.
Beyond that, I wont go into much detail due to the uncertainty. At least a small chance of scattered showers and storms looks possible almost every day next week. Some models have also been hinting at a more organised system south of the border to end the week for a few runs now. It's too early to say just how this will impact Manitoba.
Something you will notice in the next several days is the increased humidity as dewpoints rise into the low teens. Overnight lows will be quite mild, likely remaining in the teens, thanks to both the increased humidity and increased cloud cover.
Some thunderstorms have even been able to form in southwestern Manitoba this afternoon along the low-level jet. There must be a little more instability than previously anticipated.
ReplyDeleteThat was not me at 17:19 yesterday. There comment is totally wrong to, theres no way we will get 5-10 MM of rain tonight! Somebody has been doing the same thing to mike on Robs blog. By the way my monthly rain total so far is 36.2 MM, not 35.1.
ReplyDeleteI wish whoever is doing this would stop. If they want to comment go ahead with a real name, there is no shame in commenting and they should not be embaressed.
DeleteMy guess is that it is a kid or teenager who just wants attention. On robs blog a few months ago someday said the N word. Its sad that some people have nothing better to do then reck blogs. Don't let it annoy you or else that get the attention they are looking for.
DeleteI encourage you to make a blogger account Willy. Your choice though.
DeleteBeen working on a special post for a few days now; hoping to have it later today.
ReplyDeleteJJ, what do you think of next week's thunderstorm potential? Do you think we'll get anything?
ReplyDeleteMonday and Tuesday look like the best risk days from my point of view. I do think there will be thunderstorms in southern Manitoba on those 2 days, however predicting if Winnipeg specifically will get hit is hard to say. I think we got a good chance at at least SOMETHING though.
DeleteModels are consistent with an organised system south of the border to end the week. Still too early to say what it will bring here but it will have to be watched. Depending on its track it could be another major rain event in parts of southern Manitoba.