Thunderstorms overnight in addition to some scattered storms yesterday brought localized rainfall totals of 25 mm + south and east of Winnipeg. Meanwhile, only a trace to less than 1 mm fell in Winnipeg in exception to the extreme south/southeast corner which had a brief downpour near 1 am. Nearby Lorette, just a very short drive to the southeast, received about 8 mm according to a cocorahs observer. The heavier amounts north of Winnipeg on the rainfall accumulation image was from the thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and evening.
Drier weather has now settled in for a few days before our next chance at some storm activity Thursday night. Temperatures will gradually increase through to Thursday, with a high in the low 20's today, mid to high 20's tomorrow and near 30°C on Thursday.
Next chance for rain is Thursday night. Severe thunderstorms will be possible in western parts of Manitoba Thursday evening, and anything that forms there has the potential to march eastward in the RRV Thursday night. It's still a bit of a distance away, so there's still some time for things to change. Will keep you updated. Here's hoping we actually get something because we're almost half way through July and we've yet to receive accumulative rainfall.
Yet another bust last night....wow just extremely puzzling. Definately looks a significant severe weather outbreak is possible Thursday in Western Manitoba and Friday in our region and southeast MB. Looks like the potential for tornadoes will be high with these outbreaks. But as JJ mentioned, there is one little wild card that could throw a wrench is this setup and that is the cap....Early soundings for Thursday and Friday show a strong capping inversion in Southern Manitoba. So we will see what happens this time.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we'll see a few downpours in the next hour or two.. but no lightning being detected so far.
ReplyDeleteOnce again, Charleswood/southwest end hardest hit with these localized downpours this evening. 2013 has been the story of the localized heavy downpour events in that part of the city...
DeleteA few rainfall amounts with these downpours this evening:
Charleswood 6.9 mm
Whyte Ridge 6.8 mm
U of W (downtown) 2.3 mm
South St Vital (me) 1.5 mm
Wow yet another torrential downpour after 11 pm last night... was not expecting this much rain yesterday. Here's some updated rainfall totals from all day yesterday:
DeleteCharleswood 11.0 mm
Whyte Ridge 10.2 mm
South St Vital (me) 5.6 mm
U of W (downtown) 4.3 mm
Updating forecasts now...
So much for the beautiful sunny day today. Lots of cloud cover moving down from the Interlake again with some showers and lightning at times. Might be a similar situation to yesterday with the potential for a few localized downpours to ride down into Winnipeg from the Interlake.
ReplyDeleteRisk of severe storms remains in southwestern Manitoba tomorrow evening... but a cap bust is also a possibility that remains.
ReplyDeleteDefinately looks like a classic severe weather/tornado outbreak for SE SSK/SW MB tomorrow afternoon and evening but there is a big issue that could surpress this and that is what appears to be a very strong capping inversion in place. The question is, will there be enough lift associated with that cold front to break the cap, if so, lookout, if not well it will be mainly elevated stuff. Certainly bears watching over the next 24 hours.
ReplyDeleteI would mostly agree with you on tomorrows T-storms matter, although the threat super cells would move eastward into the RRV if there was a delay in the supper cells forming and they formed in SW MB then moved east towords the RRV without weakening by the time they got here...
DeleteTime will only tell.
I dn't think so
DeleteJJ,
ReplyDeletei will be leaving to go to PEI around 6:30 AM tomorrow, would you say there would be any holdups dew to T-storms?
Thunderstorms are possible around that time but not a guarantee. Could be a bumpy start to your ride depending on how things go.
DeleteThanks JJ.
DeleteEnvironment Canada has finally released the 1981-2010 normals... however you have to download the data to view it and it takes a long time. It'll take another hour to download it here.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately for Winnipeg, the normals are only for the 1981-2007 periods, so I guess we will never know the true 1981-2010 normals.
DeleteI'll keep my preliminary 1981-2010 normals then... but just keep in mind they are unofficial.
Everything in place for some significant storms later today and into tonight in SE SSK/SW MB but I have to admit I am concerned about the strong cap that's in place today. Too strong for storms right now. It will be tough for storms to break that cap so we'll see how everything unfolds later. It's pretty much make or break time.
ReplyDeleteIt's a lot windier then i thought it would be today.
ReplyDeleteI don't know what cap levels are, could someone give me a brief summary. Thanks
ReplyDeleteFrom the best of my knowledge... A cap (or capping inversion) is essentially a dry layer of relatively warmer air above the surface which surpresses thunderstorm development. If this capping inversion is too strong, thunderstorm activity can be completely prevented despite all other ingredients being excellent.
DeleteHowever, a little capping isn't always a bad thing because it can simply postpone thunderstorm development until later in the day which can result in explosive development due to all the energy that had built up under the inversion during the day.
However, today the capping may be too strong for storm development in southern areas. It is possible that most of the activity will be further north where capping is weaker. Time will tell.
Thank's again.
DeletePASPC Discussion: THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT
ReplyDeleteMAIN ACTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH OVER NIPAWIN/HUDSON BAY
AREAS PUSHING INTO THE PAS WHERE CAP IS WEAKER, WITH STORMS GRADUALLY
FIRING UP SOUTH ALONG THE TROF THIS EVENING AS IT PUSHES ACROSS SERN
SK INTO WRN MB AS CAP IS ERODED FROM WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN
SEVERE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MANITOBA - SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG AND MOISTURE IS INCREASINGLY
DEEP. SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FAVOURABLE TORNADIC
SHEAR PROFILES OVER EAST-CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AROUND 12/00Z WHICH
COULD THEN FORM INTO MORE OF A LINE DURING THE NIGHT AS IT PUSHES
EASTWARD THROUGH MANITOBA. Overall I think that storms will fire southwards as the cap erodes. We'll see, but it could turn out to be an interesting evening....
Not much happening to our west so far.. but still a few hours left for things to get going. A complete cap bust is possible.
ReplyDeleteLooks like moderate severe risk will be cancelled if nothing forms soon.
DeleteAny chance of seeing a MCS tonight? Or not?
ReplyDeleteSorry didn't get to respond earlier Mike...
DeleteLooks like a complete bust today... A shame given how well things came together.
Now we just have to suffer with this very warm and humid night. Only expecting a low of around 21°C thanks to high dewpoints and continued breezy conditions. A few showers or storms still possible in the morning, but we'll see.
DeleteI hate this, every time we are scheduled for a severe weather we never get it. Damn it all.
ReplyDeleteNot fun being a storm lover these days.. Meanwhile, Alberta had another severe outbreak yesterday.
DeleteLooks as though i will have a non thunderstorm plane ride. I totally agree with you anon 6:42.
ReplyDeleteRisk of thunderstorms tomorrow evening/night across southern Manitoba. Severe storms possible, mainly closer to the US border and in southwestern Manitoba.
ReplyDeleteAlberta deserves a whole month with out storm's and manitoba deserves a month with a with a supercell every day. STOP HOGING THE STORMS,ALBERTA
ReplyDeleteJJ, I have a good feeling about the rest of summer in terms of storms. It came to me in 2010 (and we were slammed by action) now it came back to me. It's like I have a superstition about the rest of the year. Also I was wondering how I can figure out capping using weather models, 700MB temps? Or 850 MB Temps and find the difference between the temperatures it should be cooler right? Thanks...
ReplyDeleteMike, the best way to look for capping is on a skew-t (capping is not always at the same level in the atmosphere). However, determining the strength of it via the sounding is something that I wont get into right now (it's beyond what I can explain right now).
DeleteHere's an example of a forecast sounding from yesterday late afternoon near the SK border where the capping is evident: http://puu.sh/3BqZc
You can see there's an interruption in the temperature decline with height and a rapid drying of the air as you go up at that same level. That's the location of the cap. However, remember that's just an example, not all capping looks just like that.
Yesterday we were also looking at 700 mb temperatures of 12-14°C or so, which values that high at that level are often associated with strong capping.
JJ,
ReplyDeletenoticed that you are in university what degree do you have if any?
Do not imitate JJ.
ReplyDeleteA lot of comments in past little while
ReplyDeleteyeah your right
ReplyDeleteOH know, they will probley turn the blog into total crap
ReplyDeleteAs I have said before, I will always be using this google + account for commenting.
ReplyDeleteSTOP IMITATING JJ NOW.
ReplyDeleteJJ, I was wondering how to figure out capping using weather models, 700MB temps? Or 850 MB Temps and find the difference between the temperatures it should be cooler right? Thanks...
ReplyDeleteSevere thunderstorms possible in southwestern Manitoba tomorrow. Anything that forms there has the potential to move eastward into the RRV tomorrow night. Could be interesting... unless something bad pops up again and ruins everything... such as abundant cloud cover.
ReplyDeleteJJC, if the good scenario plays out what time are you thinking Winnipeg could see severe storms. I would like to watch them at 11pm and get to bed around 12am. Thoughts? I love your insight....
ReplyDeleteIF storms managed to reach Winnipeg, at this time it doesn't look like it would be until AFTER 11 pm. Will update in the morning.
DeleteJJ,
ReplyDeletedo you have any university degrees?
I'm aiming for something in physical geography right now.
Deletethat's cool, geography is very intresting
DeleteMarvelous blog! I am an artist and photographer who also loves the weather.
ReplyDeleteWelcome Walter! Thanks for the compliment :)
DeleteJJ does a great job with it.
ReplyDeleteI have learned so much from him to.
DeleteJJ how do you make the time to update the thundercast and your own forecast every morning?
DeleteI get up early and I'm always free on mornings.
DeleteThis blog sure is populure, most blogs I have visited have 0 comments.
ReplyDeleteI think that is becuase the weather is always intresting.
Deletesorry about the bad spelling. Damn my fat fingers
Deletecool blog. my name is rob and I have a blog at theoriganalweatherblog.blogspot.om
ReplyDeleteYou have an intresting blog.
DeleteCool, you make thunderstorm forecast maps too! That must be a lot of work doing it for the eastern half of the US!
Deletethank you.
DeleteIt's not easy, yet at the same time I love it.
DeleteCouldn't agree more.
DeleteHow do you get all the comments on your blog, barely anyone ever comments on mine?
DeleteI've never advertised my blog to anyone or anywhere so I'm supposing most found it on google.. One of the big weather blogs around here has had some troubles of late so I think it's possible that might have made some other weather blogs in this area a bit more popular...
Deleteis the big weather blog called robs blog?
DeleteYeah
DeleteTornado watches for extreme SW MB for today. I<ve issued a moderate risk of severes there today as it looks quite favourable that severe storms will form this afternoon.
ReplyDelete