All of southern Manitoba had a chilly start to the day with lows in the single digits. A few other records were broken according to Environment Canada:
There were also lows of 4.1°C in St. Pierre Jolys, 4.0°C in Virden, 3.9°C in Deloraine and 3.3°C in Russell (courtesy of Manitoba Agriculture).
This cold weather we have been seeing the last couple days can be blamed on a fairly deep trough of low pressure over northern Ontario along with a high pressure system to our west, which together have been maintaining a chilly and dry northerly flow over Manitoba.
As things begin to shift eastward in the next few days, some warmer weather is expected to move in next week with highs possibly reaching the mid 20's on some days. However, a prolonged hot spell does not look to be in the cards.
There's been some confusion as to what the low actually was this morning at the airport... Will update all these numbers tomorrow if the official data is known.
ReplyDeleteWhat's up with this blog? A few weeks ago so many people commented on it. not any more.
ReplyDeleteWilly used to comment lots, but I think he mentioned he went on vacation out east.
Deletelook at that he just posted i comment right after you said that
DeleteLook at that Willy just posted a comment.
DeleteAnon, if your wondering, I could not see Jj's comment until I posted mn.
DeleteLooks like the one person on the July prediction poll who voted Colder and drier than normal is right. Usually when i am in PEI Winnipeg is much warmer, not this year. hopefully it warms up by the time i get back on the 25th of August...
ReplyDeleteHope you're enjoying your trip ;) You're right, it looks like it's been generally warmer there than here the last little bit, especially at night.
Delete@ anyone that views my record books page..
ReplyDeleteFinally found a better way at creating links to view the pages. You will find that I will be transitioning the puush links to weebly links.
Here's a sample: http://weatherrecords.weebly.com/jul.html
Still working on it.
Our next chance at thunderstorms comes in tomorrow for southern Manitoba. Thunderstorm risk will push into western parts of southern Manitoba overnight tonight and work gradually eastward through the day. Some isolated severe storms will be possible in the afternoon along the surface trough itself. Best risk for something in Winnipeg will be in the evening. Still some uncertainty... so will have to see how things look in the morning.
ReplyDeleteSome scattered showers and storms are possible again throughout southern Manitoba on Tuesday as a trough in the jet stream moves into the province.
I am suggesting there is a slight risk of severe storms in Southern Manitoba tomorrow. In terms of instability, it looks like MLCAPE should be 1000-2000J/kg, it won't be overly explosive CAPE, but decent sized nonetheless. That surface trough that you mentioned looks intriguing, particularly since models suggest a surface low may develop along it by tomorrow evening, along with a warm front. This could offer a backed low-level flow which would be more conducive to rotating storms. Deep layer shear appears to be one of the main limiting factors tomorrow, with values of only 25-30kts expected. If shear is indeed near 30kts, it may be ok, but if we start talking about values much lower than that it could become a serious limiting factor. Of course cloud cover is also an issue, as it always is, but with temperatures only needing to reach the mid twenties to allow for free convection from the surface, it seems reasonable to assume we'll heat out enough.
DeleteModels suggest that instability sufficient for severe storms will reside mainly west of Winnipeg during the daytime hours. Thus, the greatest risk for severe storms looks to be from the SK border to the Portage-Morden area through the afternoon and evening hours. If storms move slowly enough and only reach the RRV by late evening-overnight, they may still be fairly strong. However, if they drift into the RRV by mid evening then they'll likely weaken rapidly, owing to a comparatively stable environment.
We'll see what happens, but it looks like a reasonable risk for strong to severe storms tomorrow.
I was thinking about adding a slight risk in tomorrow morning's update. We'll see. Good luck if you go chasing tomorrow =), I wont be able to personally.
DeleteJJ, this may be too difficult to say but what does August look like for us? normal or below normal?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
Well, not much in terms of thunderstorms for us again this week. After tomorrow and Tuesday it looks dry and near seasonal for the rest of the week.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking a good chance at thunderstorms in southern Manitobq today... In fact storms are already forming in SE SK, NW ND and SW MB. I'm calling the severe risk as a low-end slight severe risk at this time (but keep in mind I almost decided not to issue it), due to not so extreme parameters.. and also lots of cloud cover and weak capping which is causing storms to already form quite early in the day.
ReplyDeleteToo much junk showers and thundershowers in southwestern Manitoba today. Only calling it isolated severe now. Still looks good for showers and risk of storms in Winnipeg beginning this evening.
DeleteI'm calling yesterday the biggest bust of the year when it comes to my thundercast. No severe thunderstorm warnings were issued and thunderstorms weren't even as widespread as expected. Mistakes happen from time to time...
Delete@anonymous: '' JJ, this may be too difficult to say but what does August look like for us? normal or below normal?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon''
Predicting accurately what an entire month will bring is beyond my expertise. However, what I can say is that I still don't see any prolonged and major heat up anytime in the next 2 weeks. Long range guidance right now is still pointing at colder than normal weather for the next 2 weeks... NAEFS in particular keeps us in 70% + probabilities of below normal temperatures overall in the 2nd week of August:
http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html
Using the 1981-2010 normals... today is the hottest day of the year with a normal high of 27.1°C! We're technically right in the middle of summer but it sure doesn't feel like it this year...
ReplyDeleteFYI, the warmest normal low of the year is on July 13 with a normal low of 14.3°C.
All these normals I've calculated myself...
JJ,
ReplyDeletehow hard would you say taking care of a blog is? i am considering making one but would like to know what what other bloggers recomend before going ahead and making one. Thanks.
When it comes to difficulty... Personally I say that all depends on how much you love the subject you're blogging about. If it's something that you enjoy talking about and taking care of every single day, then there isn't much difficulty... You'll have fun instead.
DeleteAlso depends on the subject I suppose. For example, weather statistics is a big part of my blog. This is a subject that requires a very large amount of time and patience. But again, it's something that I am quite passionate about and therefore it is not difficult for me.
Perhaps the biggest difficulty I find personally is time. It is sometimes difficult to find enough time to do some of the things I do on this blog. But I love taknig care of it and it is quite rewarding!
What subject were you thinking of blogging about?
like you, weather.
DeleteLooks like July will finish off colder and slightly wetter than normal at the airport. Congrats to the 3 respondents in the July prediction poll that voted for colder and wetter than normal!
ReplyDeleteHonourable mention to the 1 respondent who voted colder and drier.. because most parts of the city actually had below normal rainfall this month (the airport got hit hardest this time). I've only had 61.5 mm at my place in south St Vital.
Normal July rainfall = 79.4 mm (estimated 1981-2010 normal)
July summary to be posted tomorrow with all the finalized statistics.
JJ,
Deleteyou said at the beginning of the month when you first put the July prediction poll up that the statistics being used where yous not the YWG's. I could be mistaken. Foregive me if I am.
I also recall that. good eye.
DeleteSorry about the bad spelling. Damn my f'ing fat fingers!
DeleteHm, I just tried finding in the previous comments if I had even clarified what station I was using.. but I can't find where I said so. But you make a good point because I do recall saying something about using another station other than the airport...
DeleteLooks like I'm going to have to clarify this for the August poll:
**The winner for the August prediction poll will be determined using the AIRPORT station**
Wow, just had a look at the long range for next week and yikes it looks ugly later next week. Temps could be as much as 8 to 13 degrees below normal. Meanwhile looks like the potential is there for a quite a chilly morning for some areas Saturday morning.
ReplyDeleteThat pretty much sums up 2013 weatherwise.
Yeah looking at early indications and it does look like a cool down in the second half of next week after a brief mini-warm up in the first half. However, I'm thinking 8-13°C deviations might be a little too extreme.. but we'll see. That would equate to highs of 13-18°C which would be enough to break some records.
DeleteWouldn't be surprised to see a shower or thunderstorm later today around Winnipeg.. Best risk will be from the Interlake southeastwards and east of Lake Winnipeg. The amount of lightning on the storms which already formed east of Lake Winnipeg is significant so far.
ReplyDelete