Very severe thunderstorms pushed through southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba yesterday. Supercells began forming early/mid afternoon. Toonie to golf ball sized hail was common... but some localities southeast of Weyburn saw hail the size of grapefruit (9 cm in diameter) and tennis balls! According to Environment Canada, some crops were flattened and some windows were smashed.
Wind and tornadoes were also major concerns. Pipestone, Manitoba seems to be the hardest hit town from that stand point. Minor to major structural damage occured there... and it is possible that it may be due to a tornado (Environment Canada will be investigating). Conditions were definitely favourable for tornadic development thanks to veering wind profiles, as well as southeast winds at the surface.
@lovestormsmb and I were out spotting the storms. We left the city late in the morning and arrived in Carlyle, Saskatchewan by mid afternoon. By then, things were already looking quite ominous with a supercell west of town. We headed a bit west to get closer and then followed the storms all the way back to Winnipeg and arrived back home just before midnight. The storms produced spectacular lightning, which was at times almost constant. Several cloud-to-ground strikes occured as well (see lightning videos below). The storms had an amazing structure as well (see pictures below).
First off, here's a collection of lightning strikes that I managed to film:
Now the pictures!
2:54 pm close to Saskatchewan border looking west
3:32 pm just west of Carlyle, Saskatchewan on highway 13 looking southwest
3:51 pm on highway 605 south of Risbey, Saskatchewan looking west
4:37 pm south of Carlyle, Saskatchewan looking west
5:33 pm on highway 2 west of Reston, Manitoba looking west
6:58 pm along highway 2 west of Souris, looking southwest
8:15 pm just east of Ninette, Manitoba on highway 23 looking west
If you wish to share these photos, please include a link to my blog and twitter! Thanks!
Looking ripe for a severe weather outbreak again in Saskatchewan tomorrow... and it could be just as bad or even worse than yesterday if current trends verify. Areas close to the Manitoba border will have to watch the skies in the evening tomorrow as the storms push into the area. Large hail and damaging winds possible. Tornado risk will be best in Saskatchewan mainly due to the timing of the event, but a tornado can't be ruled out.
Some weakened storms may push into the Winnipeg area in the overnight... but again it looks like there is potential we may miss the worst.
Probably will be heading out into Saskatchewan tomorrow again tomorrow.
I doubt it, especially the 80% chance, but we'll see. Could be right :)
Monday partlycloudy Partly cloudy. High of 29C. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 15 km/h shifting to the SSE in the afternoon. Monday Night nt_tstorms Partly cloudy with thunderstorms after midnight. Low of 19C. Breezy. Winds from the South at 15 to 25 km/h. Chance of rain 80%.
Severe line of thunderstorms moving into western parts of southern Manitoba, potentially evolving into a bow echo or squall line. Damaging winds is a major threat, and large hail is possible. Potential Winnipeg could something overnight, but likely not as severe.
As for our chase today in saskatchewan, we did not see a tornado, but we think we may have seen a funnel cloud south of Regina. Now we are close to mb border on highway 13 in sask, we are hoping to get ahead of the bow echo.
Well from what I see right now, cloud cover could be a problem Thursday. Also looks like precipitation may come in 2 waves.. one early day and another late in the day. The one early day could last until noon or early afternoon.
But if we can get sunshine, watch out. Dynamics once again look quite good which would give the chance for tornadic activity, especially along the warm front which could end up close to the US border.
I think we have a good chance at at least some thunder in Winnipeg Thursday with this one. As for the severe risk for Winnipeg later in the afternoon and evening, I think it will depend how much sun we can get. I just don't see us getting a severe outbreak if it's cloudy and showery most of the day.
Severe potential not great in the morning. Rains and storms at that time are expected to be elevated with the main risks being the heavy rains. Some strong winds may also be associated with them however. There will be potential for trailing storms over the same regions due to the orientation and movement expected, so if severe warnings were issued it would most likely be due to flooding rains. Unfortunately, Winnipeg might end up right on the edge of the heavier stuff, and as a result it could be either a big or small event.
Then in the afternoon and evening, severe storms will be possible in southern Manitoba with the main risks being large hail, damaging winds and torrential rains. Best severe potential in southwestern Manitoba.
As usual Winnipeg dodges the worst with just a few mm of rain. As I alluded to, trailing thunderstorms along the US border overnight brought very high rainfall amounts to some areas. 25-75 mm of rainfall is common. Here's some rainfall amounts as of 9 am according to Manitoba Agriculture and Cocorahs:
Melita 76.8 mm Deloraine 54.3 mm Souris 51.7 mm Pierson 44.4 mm Boissevain 34.3 mm Winkler 33.1 mm Somerset 22.2 mm
NAM weather model going to the extreme with a low of 4°C on Saturday morning. That would be dangerously close to the old record of 3.3°C in 1898. Right now I'm going with a more conservative 7 or 8°C low... but either way it's looking like quite a chilly Saturday on tap. Daytime highs only expected to be around 19°C. Record low maximum is 17.2°C in 1949.
Based on latest observations, i would say the severe weather threat today over SW MB is highly conditional. Very extensive cloud cover right now and we would need some clearing over this area to get things going this afternoon but that's looking iffy at the moment. Some rather cooler temp readings across that region as well for this time of the day at this time of the year. Most areas across the south are not even at 20C yet close to lunch time. All in all this may once again be a bust here in Southern MB as it's starting to look that way.
I'm still thinking storms will form later today with the potential for large hail and damaging winds. The more sun we can get, the higher the likelihood of severe weather. Definitely not the best day for tornadoes today though.
Best risk for Winnipeg is this evening. They would most likely be non-severe, but I wont rule out the risk for a severe storm with strong winds and heavy rains the main threats.
Puush, which is the service I have used for the record books pages, will be changing some rules. These rules create inconvenience for me because any files on my account will be deleted if not viewed within a month. I will be trying some different ways of doing the record books... so if there's any issues with viewing the pages, I apologize in advance.
Very frequent lightning with that line of storms in southwestern Manitoba. Could get a decent light show later tonight if the line at least somewhat holds together.
I'm hearing of some pretty significant wind damage from the Brandon Area and flash flooding rains as that line storms is moving through the city. We'll see what happens as that line moves towards Winnipeg later this evening.
Based on what i'm seeing here, no severe storms for Winnipeg tonight....if we luck out we might see a non-severe thunderstorm but that's about it but I wouldn't bet on it.
12.2 mm at my place in south St Vital with the storm.. all that in 15 minutes or so. We drove through it on the south Perimeter coming back home... visibility severely reduced and lots of ponding on the roads definitely. Did you guys hear much thunder? Apparently there wasn't much.
Agreed, I really don't mind the big rainmakers.. we needed the rain!
Next opportunity for some storms will be Sunday night... will have to keep an eye on it.. no guarantee yet that it will make it to Winnipeg. Definitely could be another round of severe storms for southeastern Saskatchewan and areas close to the Saskatchewan border Sunday.
On another note, incredibly that NAM model brings a low of 2°C now for Saturday morning. Seems to be an outlier right now.. but it certainly looks like quite a chilly night in store nonetheless.
Very severe thunderstorms pushed through southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba yesterday. Supercells began forming early/mid afternoon. Toonie to golf ball sized hail was common... but some localities southeast of Weyburn saw hail the size of grapefruit (9 cm in diameter) and tennis balls! According to Environment Canada, some crops were flattened and some windows were smashed.
Looking ripe for a severe weather outbreak again in Saskatchewan tomorrow... and it could be just as bad or even worse than yesterday if current trends verify. Areas close to the Manitoba border will have to watch the skies in the evening tomorrow as the storms push into the area. Large hail and damaging winds possible. Tornado risk will be best in Saskatchewan mainly due to the timing of the event, but a tornado can't be ruled out.
ReplyDeleteSome weakened storms may push into the Winnipeg area in the overnight... but again it looks like there is potential we may miss the worst.
Probably will be heading out into Saskatchewan tomorrow again tomorrow.
Winnipeg's forecast from Wunderground....
ReplyDeleteI doubt it, especially the 80% chance, but we'll see. Could be right :)
Monday
partlycloudy Partly cloudy. High of 29C. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 15 km/h shifting to the SSE in the afternoon.
Monday Night
nt_tstorms Partly cloudy with thunderstorms after midnight. Low of 19C. Breezy. Winds from the South at 15 to 25 km/h. Chance of rain 80%.
Severe line of thunderstorms moving into western parts of southern Manitoba, potentially evolving into a bow echo or squall line. Damaging winds is a major threat, and large hail is possible. Potential Winnipeg could something overnight, but likely not as severe.
ReplyDeleteAs for our chase today in saskatchewan, we did not see a tornado, but we think we may have seen a funnel cloud south of Regina. Now we are close to mb border on highway 13 in sask, we are hoping to get ahead of the bow echo.
SPC has a 30% probability area for severe thunderstorms in southeastern Manitoba on Thursday. Updating forecasts now and will give my thoughts.
ReplyDeleteWell from what I see right now, cloud cover could be a problem Thursday. Also looks like precipitation may come in 2 waves.. one early day and another late in the day. The one early day could last until noon or early afternoon.
DeleteBut if we can get sunshine, watch out. Dynamics once again look quite good which would give the chance for tornadic activity, especially along the warm front which could end up close to the US border.
JJ, do you think Thursday may finally be the day Winnipeg seems something or are we likely to miss out once again?
ReplyDeleteI think we have a good chance at at least some thunder in Winnipeg Thursday with this one. As for the severe risk for Winnipeg later in the afternoon and evening, I think it will depend how much sun we can get. I just don't see us getting a severe outbreak if it's cloudy and showery most of the day.
DeleteOne more round of showers/storms next half hour.
ReplyDeleteJJ, if we get enough sun, is the setup the same as it has been over SSK for tornadic storms here in the RRV Thursday?
ReplyDeleteOh no I'm definitely not going to put it at yesterday's level.
DeleteI'm guessing capping may be an issue Thursday?
ReplyDeleteCapping's not my biggest worry, it's more cloud cover and showers which would limit surface heating.
DeleteJJ, do you think we'll thunderstorms tomorrow? Thanks let me know...
ReplyDeleteJJ, What do you think Winnipeg's chance at severe weather tomorrow is like?
ReplyDeleteSevere potential not great in the morning. Rains and storms at that time are expected to be elevated with the main risks being the heavy rains. Some strong winds may also be associated with them however. There will be potential for trailing storms over the same regions due to the orientation and movement expected, so if severe warnings were issued it would most likely be due to flooding rains. Unfortunately, Winnipeg might end up right on the edge of the heavier stuff, and as a result it could be either a big or small event.
ReplyDeleteThen in the afternoon and evening, severe storms will be possible in southern Manitoba with the main risks being large hail, damaging winds and torrential rains. Best severe potential in southwestern Manitoba.
All in all, looks like an active day.
As usual Winnipeg dodges the worst with just a few mm of rain. As I alluded to, trailing thunderstorms along the US border overnight brought very high rainfall amounts to some areas. 25-75 mm of rainfall is common. Here's some rainfall amounts as of 9 am according to Manitoba Agriculture and Cocorahs:
ReplyDeleteMelita 76.8 mm
Deloraine 54.3 mm
Souris 51.7 mm
Pierson 44.4 mm
Boissevain 34.3 mm
Winkler 33.1 mm
Somerset 22.2 mm
Winnipeg 2.6 to 4.3 mm
Those amounts are from midnight to 9 am.
DeleteNAM weather model going to the extreme with a low of 4°C on Saturday morning. That would be dangerously close to the old record of 3.3°C in 1898. Right now I'm going with a more conservative 7 or 8°C low... but either way it's looking like quite a chilly Saturday on tap. Daytime highs only expected to be around 19°C. Record low maximum is 17.2°C in 1949.
ReplyDeleteBased on latest observations, i would say the severe weather threat today over SW MB is highly conditional. Very extensive cloud cover right now and we would need some clearing over this area to get things going this afternoon but that's looking iffy at the moment. Some rather cooler temp readings across that region as well for this time of the day at this time of the year. Most areas across the south are not even at 20C yet close to lunch time. All in all this may once again be a bust here in Southern MB as it's starting to look that way.
ReplyDeleteI'm still thinking storms will form later today with the potential for large hail and damaging winds. The more sun we can get, the higher the likelihood of severe weather. Definitely not the best day for tornadoes today though.
DeleteJJ, what do you think Winnipeg's chances of seeing storms perhaps severe at some point tonight are?
ReplyDeleteBest risk for Winnipeg is this evening. They would most likely be non-severe, but I wont rule out the risk for a severe storm with strong winds and heavy rains the main threats.
DeletePuush, which is the service I have used for the record books pages, will be changing some rules. These rules create inconvenience for me because any files on my account will be deleted if not viewed within a month. I will be trying some different ways of doing the record books... so if there's any issues with viewing the pages, I apologize in advance.
ReplyDeleteVery frequent lightning with that line of storms in southwestern Manitoba. Could get a decent light show later tonight if the line at least somewhat holds together.
ReplyDeleteI'm hearing of some pretty significant wind damage from the Brandon Area and flash flooding rains as that line storms is moving through the city. We'll see what happens as that line moves towards Winnipeg later this evening.
ReplyDeleteBased on what i'm seeing here, no severe storms for Winnipeg tonight....if we luck out we might see a non-severe thunderstorm but that's about it but I wouldn't bet on it.
ReplyDeleteThere's a line headed right for Winnipeg right now. Looks like lots of lightning with the potential for some gusty winds.
DeleteLoads of mammatus clouds on the anvil of the storm near Carman.
DeleteLooks like a split for Winnipeg...As I said we may get a non-severe thunderstorm but even that is starting too look unlikely.
ReplyDeleteWell, got slammed with very heavy rains here in Windsor Park.
ReplyDeleteWell, it was quick, 20 minutes or so but got 32.3 mm at my place here in Windsor Park.
ReplyDelete12.2 mm at my place in south St Vital with the storm.. all that in 15 minutes or so. We drove through it on the south Perimeter coming back home... visibility severely reduced and lots of ponding on the roads definitely. Did you guys hear much thunder? Apparently there wasn't much.
ReplyDeleteThere was a fair bit of thunder at my place in silver heights, a few big cracks after the storm. It was awesome! Cannot wait for our next one!
ReplyDeleteAgreed, I really don't mind the big rainmakers.. we needed the rain!
DeleteNext opportunity for some storms will be Sunday night... will have to keep an eye on it.. no guarantee yet that it will make it to Winnipeg. Definitely could be another round of severe storms for southeastern Saskatchewan and areas close to the Saskatchewan border Sunday.
On another note, incredibly that NAM model brings a low of 2°C now for Saturday morning. Seems to be an outlier right now.. but it certainly looks like quite a chilly night in store nonetheless.
Bring on the next snowstorm.
Delete