Things reheat tomorrow as high pressure moves off to our east and we get back into some ridging in the jet stream allowing a strong southerly flow to return to southern Manitoba. Highs between 29 and 31°C are expected in the Winnipeg area. There will be a slight chance of a shower or storm in the evening... however the best risk will be in southwestern/western Manitoba and the Interlake. A severe storm or two will be possible in these areas.
Nocturnal thunderstorms will be possible across all of southern Manitoba Friday night into Saturday morning. The main threats with these will be flooding rains, large hail and strong wind gusts. We will then see some sun for the rest of the day with temperatures likely reaching the low 30's. Humidity will be high with humidex values reaching the high 30's to near 40. Some thunderstorms are possible again in the afternoon and evening, however capping looks like an issue and may limit storm development.Storms look possible again Saturday night and Sunday, but that's still a little too far off to be more specific. Will update on this potential when it is more clear. What is clear is that the heat looks to stay with highs in the low 30's Sunday. Above seasonal temperatures are expected to continue well into next week.
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Photo in this post was taken by me in Brandon in July 2008
This extended summer is good news for farmers which have seen a severely delayed growing season due an incredibly late spring this year. According to the Winnipeg Free Press, some crops in southwestern Manitoba are only flowering right now, which is incredibly late considering we're less than 2 weeks away from September. Here's hoping we don't get our first frost until the end of the September or early October!
ReplyDeleteHere's the Winnipeg Free Press article:
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/weather-delays-grain-harvest-220625081.html
NAM weather model going to the extreme with a high of 36°C tomorrow along with a 20°C dewpoint. I find it hard to believe we would get that high with such a moist air mass. I'm calling for 32 to 33°C tomorrow.. however it will depend partly on if we get storms in the morning hours and how much sun we get... but I think it should all be done by mid morning at the latest.
ReplyDeleteI'm keeping the high risk for storms tonight in the northern RRV and southern Interlake.. so yes I do think Winnipeg has a good chance at at least SOMETHING tonight. Some severe storms are possible, but I'm calling it simply isolated severe for now (not expecting widespread severe storms). However, severe storms are more likely this evening in southwestern Manitoba.
Tomorrow night has also looked a little more interesting in today's updates. Looks like another good chance for widespread showers and storms tomorrow night and early Sunday...
AND, I've got our next good chance for storms on the radar already: Monday afternoon/evening
Very complicated situation in the next few days with many storm chances!
Based on what I see right now, tomorrow night might be Winnipeg's best chance for a storm.. but time will tell. I'm just getting a little concerned that things may remain mostly north of the city tonight but it's still very uncertain considering barely anything has formed yet.
ReplyDeleteGeez, models handled this event quite poorly. Things ended up quite far north with nothing in the RRV the entire night! Hopefully we'll get some better luck tonight... Would be very dissapointing if we didn't get anything at all this weekend out of all these setups that are lining up together.
ReplyDeleteHumidex advisories from Brandon to Sprague today, including Winnipeg. Expect highs near 33°C in Winnipeg today with humidex values in the low 40's.
ReplyDeleteIs this thick cloud going to hang around all day? Please say no, or at least probably not.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we'll see some partial clearing later.. but yes it looks like we'll see a lot of high cloud today.. hopefully this doesn't limit daytime highs TOO much.
DeletePardon me, I mixed things up, let me rephrase:
DeleteThis low cloud this morning should clear up soon; it is already breaking up right now. There will likely be some high cloud throughout the day however..
The morning cloud today may result in highs of 'only' around 31 to 32°C today... but we'll see.
The dewpoint is up to 22 C!
ReplyDeleteBIG surprise here: everything's missing Winnipeg!
ReplyDeleteIs that it for the day then? I thought the risk was going to persist quite late.
DeleteStill a chance of something popping up to our south/southwest and drifting up into the Winnipeg area throughout the evening hours.. however the BEST risk has now drifted off to our east/southeast I'm sorry to say... I don't know about you guys, but I really had high hopes we would finally get something with all these storm chances this weekend... so it's quite the dissapointement considering the season is just nearing its end!
DeleteWinnipeg airport has only seen 12 thunderstorm days so far this year. If we didn't get another storm for the rest of the year, this would be the 2nd least amount of thunderstorm days for a year on record since these records began in 1953. Currently the least thunderstorm days in a year stands at 11 days in 1958.
ReplyDeleteCurrent top 5 least thunderstorm days in a year:
1. 11 days (1958)
2. 14 days (1961 & 1967)
4. 17 days (1956, 1980 & 2011)
1981-2010 normal: 26 days
(Data was gathered using archived metar from wunderground.com.)
And to confirm that Winnipeg really is in a period of below normal storm activity, this is the 6th consecutive year where the amount of storm days in a year has been below normal:
DeleteThunderstorm days 2008 to 2013:
2008: 19 days
2009: 21 days
2010: 25 days
2011: 17 days
2012: 22 days
2013: 12 days up to August 23
1971-2000 normal: 26.4 days
1981-2010 normal: 26.2 days
Interesting. Figures that the summer I move back to Winnipeg turns out to be the weakest storm season in years. I blame both the late spring and the cold spell from mid-July to mid-August (our prime period for storm activity), at least in large part. Even in a stretch of below-average seasons, 12 storm days by late August stands out for its weakness.
Delete2010 was at least a pretty decent year - about average in thunderstorm days but above average, I think, in observed hours. Small consolation this year, I know.
Well, I don't think we'll get any more storms tonight around here. Maybe the odd pop up storm here or there overnight, but I kind of doubt it personally as the main focus area has now gone to our east. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see some fog in the RRV form tonight given the very high surface moisture.
ReplyDeleteNext focus for storms will be late in the day on Monday.. but at the moment it doesn't look as impressive as today.