With a low of 19.7°C yesterday at Winnipeg airport, that breaks the old high minimum record of 19.4°C in 1952. This follows another high minimum record we broke on Saturday when the daily low was just 21.4°C, breaking the old record of 21.1°C in 1937.No significant reprieve from the summer weather is expected in the foreseeable future. In fact, early indications point at a summer-like start to September. Enjoy it while it lasts!
Note that humidity looks a little higher tomorrow with humidex values in the high 30's to close to 40 expected.
Risk of storms not looking too excellent for the Winnipeg area tonight.. the risk is there but is small.
ReplyDeleteThursday looks more promising right now with the possilibity for a decent MCS in the morning or storms in the afternoon depending on timing. Will keep an eye on the potential.
I hope so! It'd be quite remarkable if we had just one thunderstorm for the entire month of August. Not that it'd be the first time that's happened - but it is a bit unusual.
DeleteOnly once has Winnipeg airport only had 1 thunderstorm day in August; in 1991. As far as these records go, we have never had an August where there wasn't a thunderstorm. (these records go back to 1953)
DeleteLeast thunderstorm days in August since 1953:
1. 1 day (1991)
2. 2 days (1970, 1971)
4. 3 days (1955, 1958, 1961, 1972, 1978, 1999, 2011)
1981-2010 normal = 6 days
Interesting. So while only three storm days in August is uncommon, it's not too uncommon (once or twice a decade); but only one or two days is considerably rarer. Well, we still have almost a week left of August and we could get at least one or two more storms - they don't have to be strong ones. It'll be interesting to see if we match that record from '91.
DeleteAlso interesting that August appears to have been a fairly weak month in the '70s, especially early in the decade (1970, '71, '72, and '78 all having three or fewer storm days).
Actually I think one reason for the lower number of days in the 60's and 70's is due to how I was able to collect the data. I used archived metar to get the stats, which allows me to look at observations in between hourly observations. However, the problem is that in the 50's, 60's and PART of the 70's, there was no observations in between hourly observations and as a result some thunderstorm days are missed in those decades.
DeleteKeeping that in mind, that means there may have been more thunderstorm days in August 1970, 71, 72 and 78.... but I can't know for sure due to the data limitations.
Again keeping that in mind, the fact that there may have been more in those years just makes this year's 1 day so far even more extreme.
The thin cloud cover doesn't seem to be enough to slow the temperature climb today. Already 29 to 30°C in most in-city stations as of 11:45 am and 28°C at the airport at 11 am. Maybe we will make it to 31 or 32°C after all. However, we will likely see even thicker cloud move in later this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteYeah your right, If it stayed like that then 32 will be almost a definite.
DeleteHi JJC,
ReplyDeleteon average how many 30+ days does winnipeg see every year?
Thank you
-Walter
The 1981-2010 normal is 13.5 days a year reaching 30°C or higher.. so normal is 13 or 14 days.
DeleteSo far this year, including today, we've had 10 days of 30°C or above... with more likely this week.
Just looking at long range guidance and there is hints of a cooldown later in the long weekend or early next week but should only translate into temperatures returning to the seasonal normal of 24C or so which is certainly still pretty good. it just shows how hot is has been lately and will continue to be thru Saturday. Chance of storms for Thursday sure does look interesting.
ReplyDeleteIt does look cooler by sometime this weekend. Luckily, I don't think the cool down will last very long.
DeleteHottest day of the year at my place in south St Vital with a high of 33.4°C today. Also now officially a heat wave here with 3 consecutive days of 32°C +. 32.0°C Saturday, 32.6°C yesterday, 33.4°C today.
ReplyDeleteAnother cooker on tap tomorrow near 32 or 33°C once again.
Humidex advisories out for the RRV including Winnipeg. Humidex values near 40 today with highs near 33°c.
ReplyDeleteThursday has looked a little less impressive in the last few runs.. but thunderstorms are still possible.
ReplyDeleteSevere Thunderstorm Watches are out for the interlake and high terrain regions of Western Manitoba as well as areas just northeast of Winnipeg such as Dugald and Grand Beach. E.C. has eluded to the fact that this watch may expand southward this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteNot likely we'll see storms here in Winnipeg tonight. Atmosphere too capped right now here.
ReplyDeleteAnother scorcher near 33°C tomorrow and humidex in the high 30's. We have to go back to July 2011 to find a similarly lengthy heat wave.
ReplyDeleteHigh of 33.7°C at my place in south St Vital now making TODAY the hottest day of the year so far.
Going to be yet another close call tomorrow morning with thunderstorms. Looks like the bulk will move into North Dakota (not very surprising) based on latest guidance, but we may still get skirted with some showers or a storm or two tomorrow morning..
ReplyDeleteHigh of 35.0°C at my place in south St Vital today.
ReplyDeleteBest risk for rain and storms overnight tonight and tomorrow morning looks to be in North Dakota and south of the Trans-Canada. I think there's a good chance we'll see some rain in Winnipeg in the morning, however whether or not we'll see storms remains to be seen. It depends how far south everything ends up. However, I personally think there's a better chance we'll just see showers without lightning in Winnipeg. There could be some high rainfall amounts along the US border, especially in areas that get trailing storms. 25-50 mm not out of the question in hardest hit areas.
ReplyDeleteWow, seriously? So far, all the rain is dissipating before hitting Winnipeg and the storms are missing us. I really hope this trend doesn't last for the rest of the morning.
ReplyDeleteHi JJ,
ReplyDeleteany chance of 30 if the the cloud cover clears out by noon? Thanks.
I don't think we'll reach 30°C today. We will stay in the clouds and showers until afternoon. Better chance of 30°C tomorrow... which will be the last 30°C of this warm spell.
DeleteStorm threat looking fairly good Saturday morning. I think we got a good chance at something in Winnipeg. Main threat heavy rains.
Big cool down Sunday with highs barely over 20°C. It wont last as we get back into a warmer push of air early next week.
By saying the main threat would be heavy rains are you referring to slow moving cells or a squall line or MCS.
DeleteIt looks more linear/MCS type at this point.
DeleteLong range hints at the possibility of a major cooldown later next week which could bring the season's first frost for some areas....say it ain't so. Let's hope the models are wrong about this....Too early for frost.
ReplyDeletei hope not.
DeleteA measly 1.0 mm from this morning's rain at my place and at Charleswood.
ReplyDeleteFrost looks widespread next week, even a fart like me can tell
ReplyDeleteWell I don't like tomorrow morning as much anymore, big surprise that that would happen once again. NAM shows things moving eastward much faster than it did yesterday.
ReplyDeleteNow, it looks like the storm risk will be mainly split in two. First risk is this evening. Second risk is tomorrow afternoon and evening associated with the cold front... but BEST risk by that time will have shifted to our east unfortunately.