Things get more interesting tomorrow as a clipper system moves in. A strong southerly flow will usher in warmer weather, but will also be accompanied by more snowfall. Snow is expected to begin mid or late afternoon tomorrow and continue in the evening. A quick 3-5 cm is expected. However, with southerly winds of 40 gusting up to 60 km/h, there will be some blowing snow in the RRV. There is some uncertainty in regards to another clipper system for Monday night. Consensus at this point is for little snowfall in the Winnipeg area, but the NAM weather model is furthest north at this point giving another couple cm. Will keep chances for snow as a result and will have to watch the next few runs. Nonetheless, it looks mild on Monday with highs near zero.
Beyond that, below normal temperatures are expected to prevail, as seen in the NAEFS model image below (basically showing certainty of generally below normal temperatures during the last week of March). There will be some brief warmer periods at times, but generally, winter is not going anywhere anytime soon. There is also the potential for more snow late next week.
Monday night's system definitely becoming something to watch. Right now, the US models are battling against the Canadian models. American models are further north and the Canadian is much further south. Problem is this system could be a slower mover and wherever it moves, a decent dumping is possible (10+ cm). Breezy conditions also likely with blowing and drifting snow.
ReplyDeleteJJ, it seems like theer are hints of an even bigger storm later in the week with the TWN calling for 15-20 CM for Winnipeg Friday.
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on this?
Thanks, Anon
Hard to say at this point, but it does look like there's the chance for some more snow. 15-20 cm seems a bit on the high side compared to what I have been seeing so far.
DeleteEither way, to me any new snow is too much. JJ, are we entering into a more active weather pattern this week with what seems like multiple chances for snow over the next few days?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
More active than it's been in the last week I suppose, but there's no guarantee we'll get hit hard with the next few systems. Still quite uncertain how far north the snow will push tomorrow night into Tuesday for instance.. There's a large difference between American and Canadian models, even still this morning. I'll keep it at that for now. It is of note that precipitation may actually begin with some rain or freezing rain if there is any at all in southern Manitoba.
DeleteFirst, we have to worry about the snow later today. It could be heavy at times and therefore a quick 3-6 cm is likely for Winnipeg. The wind will be biggest story with significant blowing snow once the snow starts to accumulate and fall heavily.
Now that the latest brutal event has oliterated my view of St Vital Park will you start a poll?
ReplyDeleteIf not for total snowfall perhaps for the day the city opens a golf course this spring. Before april 1or 15 May 1 or may 15 or never. I think thats five choices. Easter might be an alternate.
Wow, Although tougher to pinpoint because of the blowing snow but i'd say i'm at 6 CM so far here in Windsor park. Snow falling at quite a rate in the last couple of hours. And it will continue for at least the next 1 hour so if not more by the looks of things on radar.
ReplyDeleteWow, yeah I think this was the worst storm for visibility of the winter in Winnipeg. Visibility was next to 0 km on Bishop Grandin in south Winnipeg, absolute whiteout conditions. Surprised there weren't any snow squall warnings or something of the sort.. I guess the storm didn't meet the specific criteria.
ReplyDeleteAs for tomorrow night's system. Consensus has really become for a non-event in the Winnipeg area as the system stays mainly state-side. We may get a few snowflakes at times.
ReplyDeleteJJ, does Friday's system look like a non-event for us as well?
ReplyDeleteThanks, anon
Still looks like a good opportunity for some snow, but amounts don't look overly significant right now. Still some time for things to change though.
DeleteWell, it looks like yet another cold weekend is in the offing for us next weekend. When will it ever end?
ReplyDeleteYeah, starting to look like another reinforced push of cold behind Friday's system.
DeleteUnfortunately spring refuses to come anytime soon with next-to certain chances of below normal temperatures in the last week of March and beginning of April remaining. Not surprising I suppose given that history has produced cold springs after cold winters like this.
Can't wait for the day that there's finally good news to share!
Again, tough to get accurate measurements because of the drifting but i'm going with 9 CM of new snow here in Windsor Park from this event. Lasted only a couple of hours but wow was it ever intense.
ReplyDelete9 cm seems reasonable. Looks like a general 6-10 cm in the city, but yeah, a difficult measure as you mention. We've pretty much just erased all the progress we made in melting the snow pack last week. Drifts now back up to 90 cm at my place; wont get a snow depth measurement until tomorrow.
DeleteI've had people reporting to me that they saw a flash that would resemble lightning about 15 minutes ago. I told them it likely was more a flash caused by a power outage rather than lightning. I was looking at radar and lightning detection for that time and neither was indicative of lightning.
ReplyDeleteThe lights were flickering last night at my place, so I would not be surprised if it had something to do with power. Hard to say though, and I didn't see any flashes or hear any thunder myself.
DeleteRather quiet the next few days with general cloudiness today and tomorrow before some sun on Wednesday. Seasonably chilly conditions. I don't have much more to add about Friday's system at this time. Looks likely we'll see some snow as I mentioned yesterday, but amounts still uncertain.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the system for Friday will miss us for the most part. As a result, we'll be stuck with general more cloud than sun today through to Friday with a few flurries at times. Little accumulations.
ReplyDeleteWinds pick up on Friday as much colder air starts to move in. We'll likely see dropping temperatures in the afternoon as a result. A frigid weekend expected with lows dipping below -20°C and highs struggling in the minus teens. We may even get close to a record low maximum on Saturday; the old record being -16.1°C in 1965. I wish I had better news, but no significant warmup is foreseeable in the next few weeks.
That March sun is sure nice and has allowed us to rise above zero today. Got a little warmer than I was expecting, all the way to 0.7°C as of 1pm. All the way to 1.8°C in Charleswood... Enjoy it while it lasts...........
ReplyDeletePlus temperatures should be a daily routine now as far as i am concerned but that won't be the case. Yikes is it gonna be cold come Saturday lasting thru the remainder of this month and likely beyond. I wish we could be talking about something else other than the cold but that will have to wait 2 possibly 3 weeks if not more.
ReplyDeleteWish I had good news when it comes to snow as well. Things have moved a bit further north for tomorrow night's system in latest model runs. Could mean some accumulation in Winnipeg after all with 3-6 cm possible. Given that this idea is only recent, I wouldn't take 3-6 cm as gospel just yet as things may change again in the next few runs.
ReplyDeleteJust to add salt to the wound, strong winds will also accompany the snow on Friday with blowing snow and falling temperatures.
I and probably many people are just itching to take the bike out these days... Doesn't look like that'll happen for a while yet.
A very tough forecast for snowfall tonight in Winnipeg as we'll be right on the edge of the system. Amounts could be anywhere from 5-8 cm or to just a few flurries depending on how far north the edge of the snowfall gets. Best chance for a decent accumulation is south of the Trans-Canada for the RRV with 5-10 cm likely in the Emerson, Morris, Morden areas.
ReplyDeleteRegardless of what occurs, the biggest worry is the wind tomorrow with gusts as high as 70-90 km/h expected across the RRV. Could make for a significant blowing snow event wherever new snow has fallen. Perhaps even blizzard conditions south of the city tomorrow morning.
A beautiful sight I hope is the last of spring. Hoar frost in St Vital Park.
ReplyDeleteOf course, the airport didn't want to warm much today compared to yesterday with a high of about -1°C. More like +2°C within city limits including 2.5°C at The Forks. Tough forecast still for tonight due to how close Winnipeg will be to the leading edge of the snowfall. I'm leaning towards a lower snowfall with perhaps 1-3 cm... but we could easily get a bit more if things push even a tad northward.
ReplyDeleteEven getting some lightning west of Minot this evening. Not expecting any on our side of the border.
ReplyDeleteJJ, some have hinted that models are hinting at a fairly decent warmup or at least much warmer compared to what we will see over the next few days, late next week into next weekend.
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on this?
Thanks, Anon
Well, it does look warmer, but I'm not ready to talk about length at this time. Given the extreme circumstances of this year, I'm skeptical that it will be a more permanent warmup and a complete reversal of winter.
DeleteExcellent. Looks like the lower snowfall worked out, expect I don't think we even got a snowflake in Winnipeg overnight. Other than some local drifting, blowing snow will not be an issue in the city as a result because what is on the ground is iced up. I guess Old Man Winter decided to give us a break. Also, looking at webcams in the RRV (Sanford, Emerson, Morden, Steinbach), although there is some blowing and drifting, whiteout conditions don't look to have materialized despite 30-60 km/h sustained winds. Not sure about the remainder of the RRV, but overall it looks like this system didn't end up as bad as it could have been.
ReplyDeleteThe storm itself was dud here as expected, too bad the cold air behind it didn't turn out to be a dud either. Yikes, it' cold today. I agree with JJ, though it does look much warmer later next week i'm not ready either to call it a complete reversal of winter. I have my doubts on that.
ReplyDeleteJJ, do you think temps will actually rise into the upper single digits on the plus side next weekend according to what models seem to be hinting at?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
I guess it's certainly possible, but that wouldn't be much warmer than what we've seen in the last week considering we were seeing highs of 7°C in the city last week, but there isn't even a guarantee the warmup will be significant. Overall, keep the optimism low because we've been dissapointed many times this winter!
DeleteJj Do you think we will reach the top 10 or 15 coldest March monthly mean.
ReplyDeleteAverage mean for the month as of today (March 21) is about -12.8°C which on its own would tie for 17th coldest March since 1872 and the coldest since 1996. Hard to say exactly how this month will place in the end due to the uncertainty of warmer weather or not late next week into next weekend... but a range would be a top 10 to top 30 coldest. A large range due to the uncertainty at the end of the month.
DeleteWell, the level of warming at the end of the month has been reduced and looks perhaps more temporary in latest model runs so that highlights the degree of uncertainty at this time. Again, I am tending more towards a temporary warmup if there is one at all, similar to what we've seen lately.
ReplyDeleteA good 14-17°C below normal today with a high around -14°C. Don't think we'll break a low maximum record today as a result. Another night in the mid -20's likely tonight.
Meanwhile, here's the Winnipeg forecast I had issued on this day 2 years ago! http://puu.sh/7F5ZI
ReplyDeleteCompare that to the one I issued today, WOW......
I've noticed that the latest ECMWF has completely changed it's tune and is now showing a turnaround to a more springlike pattern come the 2nd week of April. Not sure I buy that idea yet but we'll see. It's interesting however considering this comes from the Euro.
ReplyDeleteLots of bouncing and flip-flopping the last few days so I'm not putting much faith in drastic turn-around scenarios at this time.
DeleteNew poll is up asking when everybody thinks the winter snow pack will finally dissapears! I remember someone suggested a poll be posted a few days or a week ago, but I haven't had the opportunity to put it up until now. The answer will be determined with my observations here in south St Vital.
ReplyDeleteNo, me neither as I mentioned that I was not yet buying that idea from Euro. Hard to imagine any sort of drastic turn-around until the snow melts. It will be hard to get any real springlike warmups for as long as the snow is still here. I do think it's certainly possible that the snow will be gone earlier than last year, at least I hope so. Springs that follow cold winters are usually colder than the normal so I wouldn't expect 2014 to be different at least in April, but we can always hope for something good to happen here. We certainly deserve it.
ReplyDeleteAs for that warmup late next week, well not really looking like much of a warmup now. We may not even get above freezing before the month ends. It will be milder than it is now but that's about it. Certainly not looking a decent melt type of warmup.
ReplyDelete