After a one-day warmup yesterday, which tragically was still a colder than normal day, colder air has returned today with highs around 10 degrees below normal. Normal high today is about +3°C. Unfortunately, another -20°C night is expected tonight, some 15 degrees below normal.
A clipper system will usher in some warmer air for Saturday. Unfortunately, winds look to be an issue however, coming from the south at close to 40 km/h. Some snow will be possible, but there remains some uncertainty on amounts. At this time, only small accumulations, if any, are expected. There may even be some mixed precipitation in the evening as even warmer air moves in. Temperatures may exceed the freezing mark in the evening.
As has been the story of the winter, warmups are always very brief. And so, colder air starts moving in by Sunday, and therefore the beginning of next week looks colder than normal. By then, normal highs are around 5°C.
For those hoping for a warmer than normal April, the odds are against us. This December to March period will end up around 10th to 12th coldest on record since 1872 (finalized stat to come in the March summary). Unfortunately, of the 20 coldest December to March periods, NONE were followed by an April that was warmer than the 1872-2013 average April mean of 3.5°C. As such, a warm April is highly improbable. However, for those wishing for warmer weather, here's hoping we can buckle that trend this year.
what sunday nights "montana Low"?
ReplyDeleteAssuming you're talking about the Colorado Low to our south Sunday night into Monday, it looks likely at this point that it will remain to our south.
DeleteIt seems like we may finally get into a more prolonged warmup after early next week's cold. Not sure how significant it will be but at this point we just want temps to get above zero like they should at this time of year. So here's hoping.
ReplyDeleteYeah, long range models have consistently been showing a warmup beginning late next week or next weekend. All we can do right now is hope that this comes true.
DeleteEither way, I'm getting back to commuting by bike despite Old Man Winter's relentless grip! Enough is enough!
JJ In late November we had a record high pressure reading which matched similar November records from previous years . Your graphic listed them. All had one other common characteristic. They all preceded long cold and snowy winters. What's the connection?
ReplyDeleteGood observation anon..
DeleteThose winters would have been associated with strong arctic highs coming southwards into the Prairies. Wether or not seeing these unusually strong arctic highs move south in November is a sign of a colder winter ahead I can't tell you right now; I'd have to look into that further in a couple weeks.
I'll be looking into it in April anon. Will post whatever I manage to find sometime at the end of April. Sorry I cannot get you an answer sooner, the next couple weeks will be quite hectic around here.
DeleteLow of -22.3°C at the airport this morning... Unfortunately, likely not the last -20°C of the season with another chance for -20's Monday and Tuesday morning.
ReplyDeleteChance for snow exists for tomorrow, but accumulations, if any, look small. Any precipitation that fall in the evening or into Saturday night would likely fall as rain or freezing rain, so it could get a little messy. Cold air advects in on Sunday with falling temperatures for part of the day.
ReplyDeleteRead somewhere that more than 20 of those noreasters with hurricane strength winds had crossed the atlantic this winter to europe.
ReplyDeleteWill the one that just left Canadas Maritimes do the same and is that a record?
Are we looking for a Monday Record low daytime hitemp? Puts an exclamation point before and after the lions of March....In and out. Don
ReplyDeleteOld record low maximum for Monday is -11.7°C in 1936, so yeah it actually does look like we'll come close to that. I think it will be a very close call.
DeleteMinus 12.1 at midnight. I'm thinking that's as warm as we'll get today. As to WC ??
DeleteHigh -11.9°C so far today, but it's quite likely we will rise to at least -10°C this afternoon.
DeleteIt's possible we may see our first accumulative rainfall tomorrow night since November! I've now been 132 days without a single drop of rain here so that's nice to hear! Not a significant rainfall by any means, perhaps a mm or two if we're lucky (or unlucky depending on how you see it). Unfortunately, with the dropping temperatures on Sunday, things will be quite icy if we do indeed get some rain.
ReplyDeleteThat Colorado Low to our south for Monday has trended northward. ECMWF (european) is furthest north at this time, giving some significant accumulations (20+ cm) to the Sprague region, and a couple cm for Winnipeg. Other models further south, but have also trended northward since yesterday and a few days ago. Something to watch... I'm leaning towards a miss for Winnipeg with perhaps some light snow, but it's really the southeast corner of the province that is in question at this point.
ReplyDeleteEither way, it looks fairly cloudy in Winnipeg today through to Monday. This will mean a -20°C low is not expected Monday morning. Still a chance Tuesday morning however. It will also be quite windy not only today, but Sunday and Monday as well..
As for today, it's looking very windy, sustained between 40 and 55 km/h this afternoon and gusts over 60 km/h at times. Some snow is possible this afternoon, with little accumulation, and some showers tonight possible.
Let's hope that Colorado Low misses us. That's the last thing we need right now with all this snow still on the ground. Long range models still strongly going towards a more prolonged warmup beginning Wednesday with temps close to double digits by next weekend.
ReplyDeleteI'm remaining very cautiously optimistic...
DeletePoll closes tomorrow night, so anybody waiting to the last minute to vote, this is your last chance!
ReplyDeleteSome nice temperatures to our west and south today, all the way up to 7.3°C in Morden and 9.0°C in Melita so far. Could still creep up to 3°C this evening in Winnipeg. Still some showers possible later this evening, best chance to our south.
ReplyDeleteSay it ain't so....it looks like we here in Winnipeg will receive a decent amount snow now with 10+ cm expected along with strong winds and blizzard conditions Monday thus we have a Winter Storm Watch in effect at the moment. Yikes.
ReplyDeleteHave they tied a record in ND for Blizzards set in 1997 Jjc ?
ReplyDeleteThe only record that I know of is that the most blizzards in a winter for the GRAND FORKS area was 10 in the winter of 1996-1997. I'm not sure how many they've had this winter and I'm not sure what is the record for all of North Dakota. That is something you would have to ask the NWS or Dan on facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NorthernPlainsWeather?ref=stream
DeleteThere's a better chance you'd get an answer from them.
NWS GFK was referring to it in Feb.
DeleteGEM regional is now the furthest north with tomorrow's storm, bringing 10 + cm into Winnipeg and 30+ cm to our southeast. This combined with north wind of 40 to 60 km/h could make this one of the most significant blizzards in years. However, note that other models are further south. GEM global, NAM, ECMWF and GFS all skirt southeastern Manitoba with 5-25 cm, with less than 5 cm in Winnipeg. As a result, it's looking quite likely at this point that southeastern Manitoba will be getting a decent storm out of this, but for Winnipeg it's still quite uncertain. That 10 cm forecast for Winnipeg should be taken with consideration of the fact that in reality, we could get little to nothing if the GEM regional is incorrect.
ReplyDeleteAs for the warmer weather coming up by next weekend, it just keeps looking less and less significant and prolonged in latest model runs. Wouldn't surprise me if this trend continued. It still looks like we've got warmer weather coming, it's just looking less of a significant change for above normal weather... and after tomorrow's blizzard in the RRV, I think it would be for the best if we didn't see a significant turn to above normal weather.
ReplyDeleteNote that normal highs have now reached 5°C in Winnipeg, reach 7°C by next weekend, and reach 10°C by April 11. (1981-2010 normals)
New poll is up for tomorrow's storm...
ReplyDeleteI see E.C. has dropped the snowfall amounts for us in Winnipeg and now basically indicating mostly a miss for us with the 2-4 CM projected now.
ReplyDeleteThis highlights how close we will be to the edge of this system. It really could go either way.
DeleteAnd such the winter storm watch has been dropped. Kind of drastic given the uncertainties here but it seems like they obviously are going with a miss for us now at E.C.
ReplyDeleteWill be very interesting to see how much snow falls with tomorrow's system to our southeast. The extreme southeast corner of the province around Sprague and just south of the border and into northwestern Ontario will likely see amounts of 25-50 cm. Certainly don't hear those types of totals around here very often! Winds sustained over 50 km/h and gusts as high as 80-90 km/h in the southern RRV will cause incredible blowing snow.
ReplyDeleteI'm leaning towards a lower snowfall for Winnipeg with less than 5 cm if we get any snow at all, but that could still change before tomorrow. With strong northerly winds, it wont take much new snow to create blowing snow issues on highways.
Just a feeling Jj but these Colorado low storms late in the year particularly cold years have exhibited a tendency to turn north up the Valley and skirt portage la prairie instead . See Mar 4 1966 and April 5 1997. I believe there was one in 1996 as well. Don
ReplyDeleteI think we will receive some snow later today, but I'm stil leaning towards less than 5 cm at this time. With these winds, any snow will create hazardous blowing snow in open areas. This could be one of those scenarios where the south end of the city gets more snow than the north.
ReplyDeleteThanks everyone for taking part in the polls!
ReplyDeleteAverage vote for today's snow is 7 cm.
Poll closed for when the winter snow pack will disappear, votes are as follows:
10 votes for 3rd week of April
7 votes for not until May
5 votes for last week of April
2 votes for second week of April
Total: 24 votes
Wow....it looks like we may escape with little or snowfall here in Winnipeg. Although latest radar indicates another slight northern push so we may see some light snow this afternoon. The situation down south however is not so bright. Grand Forks getting absolutely pummelled at the moment. That heavier snow is pushing into southeast MB so Sprague your next. Ugh...when will it ever end. Still hope for the weekend however as there continues to be signs of warmer weather moving in. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteOver 9 inches at Hallock and Devils Lake at 3pm and 7 inches at Cavalier and Grafton at 130pm Source NWS Public Information FGF.
ReplyDeleteNot a snow flakes in Winnipeg with this system; not surprising as this seems to happen extremely frequently around here with these types of systems. Thanks to everyone for voting in the poll... looks like there were no winners when it comes to people voting before 8am this morning with 1 respondent afterwards being correct with ''NONE''.
ReplyDeleteAs for that 11°C in the EC forecast for Sunday, keep in mind that may be a little optimistic.