May 29 Storm Chase

     Turned out to be quite the day in southwestern Manitoba on Thursday. Thunderstorms developed in the afternoon, some severe. Hail and torrential rains ended up being the main threats. 51 mm fell in Swan Valley, 39.7 mm in Melita and 35.6 mm at Brandon Airport according to Manitoba Agriculture and Environment Canada. Some locally higher amounts likely occurred where there are no official weather stations.

     Thursday was my first chase of the year with part of the A Weather Moment team; Scott and Matt. After reaching Virden mid afternoon, we moved south to Pipestone to see the storms that fired near Melita. We ended up not seeing much other than rain and thunder (first two pictures below). After going west to the Saskatchewan border to see the storms there (wasn't much to see as they were dying), we headed east to Carberry (and east of the line of storms that had developed). Some nice picture opportunities came on the way there (pictures 3, 4 and 5). We stayed put just north of Carberry as the sun set (6th picture) and darkness took hold. Lightning became the main feature of interest. We stopped just south of Portage to view the lightning to the west. A fantastic display of light was seen with frequent cloud-to-ground strokes. I've included a few lightning takes from the videos I had taken below (not fantastic pictures I understand). You can click any of the pictures below for an enlarged view.

 

Warm and Stormy

     Today looks to be very nice in the RRV with plenty of sunshine and light winds. We may see some cloud move in this afternoon, but it shouldn't be enough to ruin the day. I'm anticipating a high around 26 or 27°C in Winnipeg.

     Tomorrow, things get interesting. First, there will be a risk of leftover thunderstorms from Saskatchewan in the morning. At this point, it appears the best risk for these storms will be generally in southwestern Manitoba and north of the Trans-Canada. Can't rule out storms elsewhere however. Behind this activity, models do clear us out in the afternoon with generally a mix of sun and cloud south of the lakes. This will set the stage for some potentially severe thunderstorm activity later in the day. Thanks to the sunshine, we should manage to reach -at least- high 20's tomorrow in the RRV. Low 30's will definitely be possible -if- we get enough sunshine.

     A cold front moving into southwestern Manitoba late in the afternoon and evening will be the focus of severe thunderstorm activity tomorrow. Although there does appear that there will be at least some sunshine, capping is still a serious issue for storm development. Nonetheless, please be sky aware tomorrow if you are in southwestern and south-central Manitoba because anything that does develop will have a good chance of becoming severe in a hurry. All modes of severe weather would be possible.

     However, if capping is too strong, storms may not form until late in the evening. These could still be severe, but the risk for tornadic development would be lower. Winnipeg's chance for storms with this will come overnight through to early Friday.

     After early day showers and storms, we should begin to clear out in the afternoon on Friday. It will be cooler, likely only reaching low 20's at most.