A cold front moving into southwestern Manitoba late in the afternoon and evening will be the focus of severe thunderstorm activity tomorrow. Although there does appear that there will be at least some sunshine, capping is still a serious issue for storm development. Nonetheless, please be sky aware tomorrow if you are in southwestern and south-central Manitoba because anything that does develop will have a good chance of becoming severe in a hurry. All modes of severe weather would be possible.
However, if capping is too strong, storms may not form until late in the evening. These could still be severe, but the risk for tornadic development would be lower. Winnipeg's chance for storms with this will come overnight through to early Friday.
After early day showers and storms, we should begin to clear out in the afternoon on Friday. It will be cooler, likely only reaching low 20's at most.
JJ, It seems that the tornado threat for tomorrow will be mainly west of Winnipeg. However is there the risk for storms to remain somewhat severe with strong winds and hail as they move into Winnipeg tomorrow night?
ReplyDeleteThunderstorms will be possible, but the threat for severe activity doesn't look very high for Winnipeg. Problem is, the storms may not even reach us until early in the morning Friday, and by then they would have substantially weakened.
DeleteAs for my thundercast maps for tomorrow, I wont update it this evening because I think it's still reasonable looking at the models this evening. However, the slight risk of severe storms could probably go even a tad further west.
Latest NAM suggests that the CAP breaks by 4 PM in SW Manitoba. If that is indeed true, yikes that could be trouble for Brandon South and West. May also expand or shift the severe threat further north and east as well. So, we'll see. My best guess would be just south of Brandon as a good starting point for chasing tomorrow. I'il be there for sure. Who knows maybe i'il run into Reed Timmer and the gang as they will also be there tomorrow.
ReplyDelete00Z sounding from Glasgow also shows a good sized EML which should advect into Manitoba tomorrow. Moisture looks very good as well. It's all in place for tomorrow and if that CAP indeed breaks by 4 PM such as NAM suggest, yikes that's trouble.
ReplyDeleteWill be out chasing in southwestern Manitoba today with the A Weather Moment team... Might have an update or two through the day.
ReplyDeleteLooks like most areas will see decent sun through the day as cloud from morning convection has pretty much cleared out in Southwest MB and will do so here in the RRV by afternoon.
ReplyDeleteNo storm.s in south western mb
ReplyDeleteToo early for storms right now. Won't likely get going until late this afternoon or early this evening.
ReplyDeleteOne thing is for sure, daytime heating and sunshine is not a problem in Southern Manitoba this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteThings should start getting going soon in northwestern ND, SE SK and SW MB. We're sitting and waiting.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, old record 34.4°C in 1939 in Winnipeg, will come close to that today.
Haven't seen much so far... By th way, high of 32.7°C at Winnipeg airport today, so not a record but darn close!
ReplyDeleteA note that forecasts may not be updated tmoorrow because we'll be back in Winnipeg very late tonight then work tomorrow. Yikes!
Excellent lightning display west of Winnipeg tonight, will try to get something posted in the next couple days.
ReplyDeleteQuite the rainfall event in some parts of southern Manitoba today though.. 51 mm in Swan Valley, 39.7 mm in Melita, 34.0 mm in Forrest and 32 mm in Brandon just to list a few. Definitely was some hail in some places; we saw some pretty obvious hail shafts on some of those storms earlier.
ReplyDeleteClouds will increase today but we should manage to reach around 26°C to 27°C for a high. Looking like more cloud than sun tomorrow with a high around 22-25°C depending on how thick the cloud is. Sunday looks sunnier and warm reaching possibly high 20's. Rain is possible on Monday, will have more details tomorrow about it.
ReplyDeleteIs that another record Julien....Earliest organized chase in MB...by the way I didn't follow but I'm a creature of Habit . I would have bet Oak Lake and Pipestone (as well as Melita would be ripe targets because of all the historic records... Seems to me Napinka was also on that list. from the fifties.(nineteen not eighteen). Is it the topography or ? that makes this area so T magnetic? Anond
ReplyDeleteAs far as I'm concerned, I don't think there were any tornadoes yesterday. Large hail, flooding rains, frequent lightning and damaging winds certainly do occur in May and aren't all that uncommon. Why has southwestern Manitoba been so hot for storm activity versus the RRV in the last few years... hard to say.
DeleteAccording to Environment Canada, Winnipeg averaged as one of the lightning hotspots of western Canada's major towns and cities between 1999 and 2008 (see link below). I wonder how that statistic has changed since then...
http://ec.gc.ca/foudre-lightning/default.asp?lang=En&n=4871AAE6-1
Great site ,thanks jj. A few years ago that map indicated Estevan thru the SW corner of Manitoba into ND was a hotspot.. Estevan still has a rate substantially greater than Winnipeg or Brandon.
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