What a day today turned out to be in southern Manitoba. Temperatures soared into the low to mid 30's, some of the hottest weather we've had in May since the 1990's.
Winnipeg reached a high of 33.3°C before the storms rolled in, breaking the old record of 32.7°C in 1980. It was also the hottest day in May since 1995 when we hit 33.7°C on May 30. Wow, can weather change dramatically around here! After all, it was only less than 2 weeks ago that Winnipeg experienced some snow! Thunderstorms today also dumped some impressive rainfall locally. 27 mm of rain has fallen so far today in St Adolphe, just south of Winnipeg. Generally 5-15 mm seems to have fallen within Winnipeg; locally higher amounts may have fallen.
Scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder remain possible through the night and into tomorrow, making for an unsettled and potentially stormy next 24 hours.
Thankfully, the warmth is expected to continue. Highs in the mid to upper 20's remain possible for Monday and Tuesday depending on sunshine. There is a slight risk of showers and storms Monday night into early Tuesday.
There has been considerable flip flopping in the NAM weather model for Monday and Tuesday today. Mid to upper 20's may be too warm for early work week... will see how it goes tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day across southern Manitoba, including Winnipeg. So overall, a fairly unsettled day.
ReplyDeleteFor tomorrow, the sun comes back and we should reach mid 20's around 24-25°C.
Tuesday is a bit of a question mark in my eyes right now. There is certainly potential for thunderstorms and highs in the high 20's depending on how things unfold. Will have to see how models look tomorrow morning...
Active pattern continues for the remainder of the work week with more storms possible at the end of the week.
I think we can pretty much forget about sunny breaks today thus limiting the threat for storms or at least severe storms.
ReplyDeleteWell as it turns out we are seeing some sunshine after all but not sure it will be enough to get anything going in terms of severe storms.
ReplyDeleteNO STORMS HAVE FORMED SO FAR, LOOKING AT THE LIGHTING DETECTION IN SOUTHERN MB. ALTHOUGH IT DOES LOOK LIKE A LINE OF STORMS HAS FORMED FROM THE NORTH WESTERN CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTH EASTERN AREA OF THE STATE.
DeleteThunderstorm threat today is pretty much done now at this point. Go figure, today was the more likely day for storms as opposed to yesterday but as it turns out it was the opposite.
ReplyDeleteChance for more storms Tuesday. Later in the coming week could be quite interesting as models bring a possible severe weather event to us. GFS and ECMWF differ on timing at the moment, so will certainly be keeping a close eye on this as the week progresses.
Great to see a long range forecast with consistant normal to above normal temps for once!!! We sure deserve it, in fact what was it, (8 months?) we've had consecitive below normal averages, well mother nature needs to pays us with 8 consectitive months of ABOVE normal.
ReplyDeleteDidn't turn out to be Winnipeg's day for storms today, but it certainly did get active to our southeast. Steinbach was the place to be today with 25+ mm of rain in a short period of time this afternoon with thunderstorms. Story and pictures of flash flooding here: http://www.steinbachonline.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=43074&Itemid=100413
ReplyDeleteShaping up to be an interesting week ahead for convection especially at the end of the week where severe storms with tornadoes are possible. Will be watching that situation closely but early indications have Southern MB with huge amounts of CAPE values Thursday/Friday amongst other ingredients but there is one thing that ruin this all, that is capping which seems to bust potential good events here alot in Southern MB so we'll see.
ReplyDeleteBefore then, there is the chance for thunderstorms Tuesday. Thus far severe threat seems low however.
Pleasant today with a seasonal high near 21 to 22°C and light winds...
ReplyDeleteNext storm potential to watch as anon mentions is tomorrow as a cold front moves through southwestern Manitoba. Although shear isn't magnificent again, it is a little higher than it was on the weekend. With enough instability, a severe thunderstorm can't be ruled out, if enough sunshine is present, in southwestern Manitoba and in the western RRV. Winnipeg could see some storm activity in the late afternoon and evening. The associated cloud makes temperature forecasts tricky, but if enough sunshine is present, high 20's will likely occur.
Wednesday is another question mark due to uncertainties of morning shower or storm activity. If the activity doesn't occur, highs in the mid 20's are likely again.
Things get interesting Thursday-Friday with multiple storm chances. Too early to get into the detail.
Not as pleasant of a day as many would have thought it would be. Seems like that northeast breeze is doing a good job at keeping things cooler today. Not so sure we'll see 21 or 22C today. More like 18C or so which is much cooler than the last few days.
ReplyDeleteTrue, didn't consider the coolness of that northeasterly breeze this morning. Pretty pleasant nonetheless, managing to reach 20°C in some parts of the city. Hopefully cloud wont ruin our temperature forecasts tomorrow...
DeleteWow, if the cap breaks Thursday and if the NAM is right, lookout
ReplyDeleteWas that a preview in ND last night Tornado in Watford ND ??
DeleteThursday is looking quite interesting across southern Manitoba. Potential is certainly there for a major severe weather outbreak if things allign correctly. The two concerns I have right now is cloud/early day convection and capping. Some of the model soundings show some strong capping... and we all know how often the cap has won here in southern Manitoba before! Cloud cover and morning convection could also be an issue, limiting surface heating.... we'll see how it goes in the next couple days.
ReplyDeleteYeah, i would not get to high hopes, espiecaly looking at all the busts we had last year.
DeleteLatest models agree on an area of reduced or no capping just ahead of the front. They differ on angling of the low at peak storm potential. The problem is if the moisture values verifies, the GFS and euro have especially been flip flopping on it. Latest NAM shows MLCAPEs of 2500jkg / messy CIN of -120-200 bullseye area where 0-1km EHIs are maxed... be interesting to see how it plays out.
DeleteI wouldn't say major outbreak... but if a storm or two can form that day, it'll be strong, perhaps even violent as the cap gradually erodes in the early evening. I suspect the crew from TVN will be chasing this one even if it is a 50/50.
speak of the devil, Mr. Timmer is just tweeting like crazy about it now. Says he's headed to Canada for the weekend to meet up with mr. Schofer...
DeleteThink he caught that Tornado in ND last night?
DeleteJJ, how is may set to go as far as far as the mean temp for the month so far?? Still below normal even with the patten change?
ReplyDeleteThaNks
Also, how about precipitation?
DeleteThanks
Up to today, average mean temperature at the airport has been 9.6°C or 1.8°C below the May normal of 11.4°C. At this point, with the temperature forecasts for the remainder of the week it doesn't appear this May will finish above normal. It is highly likely this will end up being the 8th consecutive month below normal.
DeleteAs for precipitation, we're up to just under 41 mm up to today, slightly below the normal of 57.4 mm. However, we'll likely add to that in the next few days.
Quite the cluster of storms near Melita at this time. Large hail likely. Those 3 trailing cells spell trouble for flash flooding as well.
ReplyDeleteDid anyone catch that Tornado in Watford ND yesterday , hit an Oil Camp near Williston but the severely injured are in Hospital in Minot ?
DeleteTry
Deletehttp://search.yahoo.com/search?p=ND+Tornado+watford&ei=UTF-8&fr=moz35 for a video.
With enough sunshine, we -should- manage to reach around 27-28°C today in Winnipeg. Storms will be possible this evening. These will likely originially begin to develop in southwestern and western Manitoba this afternoon where severe activity is certainly possible. Large hail, damaging winds, flooding rains are the main threats.
ReplyDeleteIf we manage to get enough sunshine, another 26-28°C day likely tomorrow. Storm activity not highly likely around Winnipeg.
Still lots of uncertainty about Thursday. There's certainly potential for morning thunderstorm activity, some of which may be strong. This creates my biggest concern for late Thursday's potentialy severe thunderstorm event. I'm very concerned that cloud cover and ongoing convection in the morning and early afternoon will limit things. Capping as already mentioned is also a concern.
JJ, do you think there will be enough ingredients in place that could erode the capping Thursday?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
Sunshine would probably make the biggest difference to get some good surface heating. Unfortunately, just how much sun we manage to get is really something we can't know for sure until the morning of.
DeleteBy the way, some rainfall amounts from last night's storms in southwestern Manitoba:
ReplyDeleteMelita 28.6 mm
Deloraine 16.4 mm
Reston 14.0 mm
Pierson 10.6 mm
Killarney 6.0 mm
Courtesy of Environment Canada and Manitoba Agriculture
Still some uncertainty as to how Thursday will unfold but if this pans out as per the potential, this will not be a good situation in Southern Manitoba. Could very a dangerous outcome.
ReplyDeleteLatest NAM run shows drastically reduced instability as I expected. Still flip flopping! I wonder if SK's setup will overcome that extreme cap.
ReplyDeletejj, where is the main threat for severe storms thursday?
ReplyDeletethaks!!
Due to uncertainties, still too early to pinpoint precise locations. So far it does appear severe thunderstorms would be possible across most of southern Manitoba with potentially the best risk being in southwestern and south-central Manitoba. Again, too early to say.
DeleteStorms have inititated south of Portage la Prairie. They may manage to reach Winnipeg early this evening.
ReplyDeleteyeah, a cell to our west looks to come in with in 1/2-1 hour.
Delete