However, as is the case with most May Long Weekends, some stormy weather must occur. That stormy weather will arrive Sunday night with rainy and windy conditions likely early Monday. Significant moisture streaming northwards from the US combined with convective activity will allow for locally significant rainfall accumulations. A few embedded thunderstorms are also not out of the question. As a result, rainfall forecasts are a little tricky at this time. Additional showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible late in the day on Monday. Along with the rain, it will also be quite windy with sustained winds of 30-45 km/h. As the event draws closer, I'll provide updates in the comments.Cooler, below normal temperatures return for mid week before warmer weather arrives for next weekend.
High of 16.9°C so far at the airport as of 5 pm... Still on track for a 20°C day tomorrow, as long as it is not too cloudy. Clouds will increase in the afternoon... A slight chance of a shower late day, but anything that develops will be very isolated and short-lived, not enough to dampen the day.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, I am liking the growing consensus of a more lengthy period of near to above normal temperatures starting late next week. Still hard to say how long it will last however, but it's nice to see the growing consensus.
ReplyDeleteSo much for a sunny weekend!! Looks like it will be mostly cloudy now. We can never catch a break!
ReplyDeleteDespite the high cloud, I'm still expecting a high around 19-20°C.
DeleteNot too much has changed with my forecast. Today's looking a little cloudier than I anticipated yesterday, but we should still manage to reach around 19-20°C. Tomorrow will also be dependent on how much cloud there is... so far it looks a little sunnier than today, but that could always change. A high around at least 19-21°C looks likely.
ReplyDeleteStill looks rainy and windy Monday, but I'm still concerned about amounts... Can't rule out some thunder; best chance in southwestern Manitoba. System hangs around on Tuesday with additional popup showers possible, perhaps again a rumble of thunder.
Slowly but surely the record books updates are being done... Two new cities have been added: Brandon and Morden. Right now, only daily temperature records have been added for these two cities. Additional data has been and will be added in the next couple weeks:
ReplyDelete-Brandon daily temperature records (done) and monthly/seasonal temperature records (to come)
-Morden daily temperature records (done)
-Calgary monthly precip. (done) and seasonal precip./temp. (to come) records
-Winnipeg daily snow depth records (to come)
The biggest change is graphs. Almost every single page will now have 1 or more graphs attached. Winnipeg is the last city I have left right now to add the graphs to its pages. I've decided not to do a page which compares city to city yet. That will be a project for another summer.
Being a more visual guy the graphs are nice. Do you think that you would have the time to add Portage records as I am currently living there?
DeleteAlso, just curious how you gather all the statistics and find the coldest warmest etc. day on a single day since the late 1800s.. must take a lot of time.
Or, in short, how do you gather any of the records?
DeleteThanks!!
Environment Canada has downloadable data on its site where you can download either all the daily data for a year, all the monthly data for the entire record period, or all the hourly data for a given month... So to gather all the daily data for one city, I just have to download the daily data for each year individually and then add it all in microsoft excel. From there, once all the data is in one place, any record needed can be easily retrieved.
DeleteNote however that I always quality check the data to ensure that the records I have are as accurate as possible. This is absolutely necessary to do... I haven't gone through one city yet that didn't have errors in the data!
It doesn't take THAT much time. With the method above, gathering all the daily temperature records for instance takes about a week.
As for the city of Portage, that was my next plan... will begin gathering their records once I'm done with this first project.
Looked briefly the other day. IMPRESSIVE and neatly fits on one pageview.for each city.
ReplyDeleteTurned out to be a pretty nice day today once that high cloud moved out.... High of 20.4°C as of 5 pm at the airport. Even warmer here in the south end, up to 21.8°C today.
ReplyDeleteJJ, any chance for thunderstorms for us here in Winnipeg Monday or Tuesday?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
For Winnipeg, can't rule out some thunder Monday and Monday night. Tuesday not looking as good as it did this morning. We'll see how things look tomorrow morning when I'll update again.
DeleteTurning out to be not as nice today as expected with lots of mid-level cloud and elevated shower activity. We should see more sun this afternoon than this morning however. We should manage to reach 17-19°C, perhaps 20°C if we're lucky.
ReplyDeleteRain should begin tomorrow morning and last, for the most part, for much of the day. 10-20 mm possible, perhaps more if we get under any heavier bands. Thunderstorm activity is looking less likely at this time for Winnipeg. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder, but I'm doubtful. Best chance will be along the US border. Best risk in the afternoon and evening.
Clouds and scattered showers continue on Tuesday. Thunder not expected for the Winnipeg area for Tuesday.
In other news, I'm liking what I'm seeing for next weekend. It is now looking quite likely we'll finally be seeing some truly above normal temperatures. Some models even show the potential for temperatures approaching 30°C. Still hard to say how long it will last.
Yeah, and GFS is also hinting at severe thunderstorms for us next weekend as well. Bring on Summer.
ReplyDeleteHigh of 17.2°C at the airport as of 6 pm. Unfortunately, cloud won out for today.
ReplyDeleteOh my, if things pan out as is being suggested for next Sunday, this could be quite the 1st severe weather event for us. May not have to go very far to chase. But it's still a week away so i wouldn't get too excited yet but certainly something to keep an eye on.
ReplyDeleteYeah, maybe next weekend will be the start of a change in winnipeg never getting t-storm!!! Woud'nt it be amazing to have an ABOVE normal t-storm season!!!
DeleteHard to believe, but if we don't get a t-storm next weekend, then we will most likely be in the top five latest starts to the t-storm season – just like last year. Hears hoping the good lord will give us an above normal t-storm season; we sure deserve it.
DeleteJJ, Whats the latest as far as rain today? Still looking like 10-20 mm, or will we be spared with <10 mm like we usually do?
ReplyDeleteThanks!!
Showers look to occur for most of the day today. I'm calling it 5-15 mm for today, but if things do split on us, we certainly could get even less. Winds will be moderate from the east-southeast at 25 to 40 km/h. I'm not expecting any thunder here in Winnipeg, but some thunder is possible near the US border this afternoon and evening. Looks like the bulk of the instability will stay south of the border.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see some sun tomorrow morning, albeit not a whole lot. Scattered showers are likely in the afternoon and evening with a couple mm possible. Again, I'm not expecting thunder in Winnipeg.
Still looking much nicer for next weekend with highs in the high 20's to possibly low 30's across southern Manitoba.
Thanks; I bet we dodge most of the rain and get <10 mm like we always do. After all, we live in winnipeg; what else do you expect.
DeleteYeah, I agree. looking at the radar theirs a hole forming over winnipeg, with the heaviest bands to our south and far west. And we be getting under those bands becuase the precipitation it moving from south-west to north-east. Damn it. When will we ever get a good 20+ dumping?
DeleteJJ,
ReplyDeleteWhen are thinking of posting your next state of the climate?
Most likely June 3, for a spring summary. I post only seasonal summaries on AWM; meteorological winter (Dec-Jan-Feb), spring (Mar-Apr-May), summer (Jun-Jul-Aug) and fall (Sep-Oct-Nov). Additionally, my Manitoba thunderstorm season summary will also be posted there sometime at the end of each year. The Canada severe thunderstorm season summary may also be included as an Elsewhere in Weather News post. Note that all of these will no longer be posted on my blog. However, I will still link the posts to my summaries tab for easy retrieval in the future.
DeleteI can't wait!
DeleteAlso, @weatherinthe'peg found this cool time lapse of a super cell in Wyoming yesterday: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/05/19/wow-wyoming-surreal-supercell-thunderstorm-time-lapse-photos-and-video/
You can follow the link or click on "anon".
Can't wait for when we get something like that in southern Mb – that is if we ever do!!
That's a pretty cool time lapse anon..
ReplyDeleteAs for the first thunderstorm of the year, hard to believe but by next weekend we'll be almost a month behind schedule. 1981-2010 normal first storm is April 27. As of today, we're already at 8th latest start to the thunderstorm season.
Top 9 latest first t-storm of the year:
1. June 28 (1958)
2. June 10 (2013)
3. June 3 (1992, 1995)
5. May 30 (2011)
6. May 24 (1959)
7. May 23 (1954)
8..... 2014 (May 19 so far)
9. May 18 (2007)
Hey JJC…
ReplyDeleteWith the early week rain (and fairly wet soil already) combined with a decent warmup (going from 12 to 25+ by the weekend) are we looking at conditions for 2014's first thunderstorm? I know other people have mentioned this topic of t-storms next week, but I would like to here your expert forecast.
Thanks for the feedback,
Andrew P.
I haven't looked into storm potential next weekend yet... if I have time I'll check things out early this evening.
DeleteHard to believe it, but if the GEM is right, we'll be facing dew points as high as 20 C next weekend..... And to think we had -5 temps last week.... Pretty amazing!
ReplyDeleteI'll believe those dewpoints when I see them. Certainly early in the year to get dews like that, especially considering how late this spring has been.
DeleteYeah... Would be interesting to have dewpoint records. Are there such things? FAE earliest acurrances of 20+ dewpoints?
DeleteI could try to gather the record for that in a few days. I wont have the chance until at least Thursday.
DeleteJJ,
ReplyDeleteWas looking at you record books trying to find latest and earliest accurances of 30 C, and I could not find any. Could you try and to find them for me?
Thanks!!
The 1981-2010 normal first 30°C of the year is June 2. Therefore, if we hit 30°C this weekend, it would actually be earlier than normal.
DeleteTop 5 latest first 30°C readings of the year:
1. August 16 (2008)
2. July 24 (1882 and 1927)
4. July 19 (1920)
5. July 15 (1967)
Top 5 earliest first 30°C readings of the year:
1. April 18 (1987)
2. April 20 (1980)
3. April 23 (1990)
4. April 25 (1891)
5. April 26 (1952)
Looks like some thunderstorms have fired up between Morden and Carman.
ReplyDeleteSome thunderstorms around Winnipeg but I see the perimeter shield is active once again.
ReplyDelete9.1 mm here in south St Vital today. Looks like a general 5-10 mm in the city today, except the airport at about 4 mm. Thunderstorms a little further north than anticipated, but either way it looks like so far, as you say anon, the Perimeter Shields have held up. However, can't rule out more development of showers and embedded rumbles through the evening and overnight.
ReplyDeleteAndrew P., it does appear some thunderstorm activity is possible in the Sunday-Monday timeframe in the RRV with a bit of a cold front. Too early for specifics.
ReplyDeleteAnd with the warmth in place couple with some humidity some of these thunderstorms may be severe Sunday but as JJ said too early to be specific on that, so it will certainly be something to keep an eye on as the week progresses.
ReplyDeleteLooks like yet another cluster of thunderstorms currently just north of Carman will once again miss Winnipeg. Perimeter shield is back to it's old tricks again this year.
ReplyDeleteFirst storm of the year in Winnipeg and I'm not there to see it!
ReplyDeleteAs a result, this year's t-storm season has the 8th latest start on record since 1953.
DeleteThat storm just south of the city last night dumped some impressive rainfall totals... Locally 15+ mm. A cocorahs reported measured 30.5 mm of rain yesterday in total, much of it from that evening storm. In Winnipeg, totals yesterday appear to have ranged from about 7 to 18 mm.
ReplyDeleteShowers and drizzle will continue through the day today and temperatures wont rise much. Tomorrow also is looking cloudier than previously thought, so we'll likely only reach mid teens.
Sun comes back in full force for Thursday when the warmup finally begins! Should reach around 23-24°C Thursday and 25-27°C on Friday.
Cloudy day today, likely only reaching low teens, potentially mid teens if we get some sunny breaks this afternoon, which I am doubtful. Other than that, not much change in forecast. 23-24°C tomorrow under lots of sun, more like 26-27°C Friday and 27-30°C on Saturday depending on cloud cover. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm Friday night, but the risk is not extremely high.
ReplyDeleteNormal updates and operations return tomorrow.. I know the thundercast hasn't been updated in a few days; it will be tomorrow morning. Haven't been in 'town' the last few days.
ReplyDeleteBeautiful sunny day today, likely reaching somewhere between 21 and 23°C. Again, 26-28°C tomorrow and 28-31°C on Saturday. This will depend on cloud cover of course, but there certainly is the potential for our first 30°C of the year on Saturday.
ReplyDeleteFor the RRV, I think our best chance for thunderstorms will be Saturday night into Sunday. There is also the chance for some nocturnal storm activity early Saturday... difficult to predict this type of nocturnal activity, so will have to wait and see.
JJ, if thunderstorms do occur either Friday night into early Saturday or Saturday night into early Sunday here in Winnipeg/RRV, is there the chance they could strong to severe?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
Any storms that develop in the next few days have the potential to be severe given the high instability expected. However, lack of shear is an issue.
DeleteYeah, I agree shear will be a big issue this weekend. Without it, it's hard to imagine we'll see severe weather and if we do it will be very brief. I think any storms this weekend will be mainly elevated as a result of the lack of shear. But it's still very early so even if we don't see severe weather this weekend it wouldn't come as a surprise especially given that severe weather is not a common here in May although it can happen given the right setups.
ReplyDeleteI also think E.C.'s high of 25C for tomorrow is too conservative. I'm thinking more like 26C to 28C.
What's your thoughts for rain on Sunday?
ReplyDeleteNew post will be coming soon this morning after I update the thundercast...
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking a first 30°C of the year tomorrow is very likely at this point as extremely warm air aloft moves in. I'm actually calling for a high of 32°C right now. 27-29°C today...
Of note, we may actually come very close to a record high tomorrow. Old record is 32.7°C during the famous 1980 May heat wave.
Delete