It will be a very hot and humid day in southern Manitoba today. It may be the hottest day of the year so far. Temperatures are expected to rise into the low to mid thirties, and with the humidity it will feel into the low to mid forties.
It is one of those days when strenuous activities outdoors should be reduced or taken indoors. If you have to be outside, stay hydrated and try to stay in the shade as much as possible to avoid heat exhaustion.
All this humidity, along with an approaching trough will offer the opportunity for severe thunderstorms in Manitoba later this afternoon and evening. The best chance for these storms will be in the Interlake and eastern Manitoba. Capping in the atmosphere may prevent storms from forming altogether south of these areas, where the cap is strongest. The main threats today will be large hail, damaging winds and flooding rains. Tornadoes are possible, however conditions for their formation are not as favourable as they were in Saskatchewan yesterday.
Cloud cover from an area of convection to our west is keeping our temperatures lower than expected over southern Manitoba today. Also, winds are remaining out of the south, instead of a more southwesterly direction. These factors mean we will probably only see highs around 30 or 31°C in Winnipeg today. However, it will depend on how early we can clear out.
ReplyDeleteWe may see some showers and storms in the city later this afternoon. Storms would be isolated in nature most likely.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued now for the rest of southern Manitoba, and now includes Winnipeg. The risk for storms is quite small in the RRV, however the chance exists.
ReplyDelete40 mm of rain in 30 minutes along with marble sized hail reported near Togo. This storm is moving towards the Roblin area of Manitoba.
ReplyDeleteWatch out if you are near Morden! A very nasty-looking cell has rapidly formed there. Very large hail looks likely with the storm as dBz values are near 60 on the doppler radar. Flooding rains definitely possible. This storms has a lot of instability to work with, so take cover!
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg still has a chance of a storm later this evening, however it is still looking slim.
Things are actually looking better now for Winnipeg in terms of storms. That line of storms near Morden is building northwards. Storms are now looking more likely in the Winnipeg area near midnight-1 AM timeframe.
ReplyDeleteTornadoes are not likely with these storms in Manitoba tonight. These storms are elevated - nothing surface-based is breaking through the cap. Main threats tonight are very large hail, damaging straight-line winds and flooding rains.
ReplyDeleteThe risk for Winnipeg just keeps getting better and better at this point. Storms are now all the way up to just north of Carman, and moving east.
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