Thunderstorms have already rumbled through the Winnipeg area early this morning, and storms are still brewing to our west and southwest as we speak. Severe tstorm warnings are in place due to excessive rainfall. Some areas have already seen over 40 or 50 mm of rain this morning west of Winnipeg.Thunderstorms are likely throughout south-central and southeastern Manitoba this afternoon and evening. The main threats are large hail, damaging winds and excessive rainfall. The storms are slow movers today, which explains why some areas are getting such high rainfall amounts. Also, they are quite isolated as a result. For example, Oak Bluff had about 30 mm of rain this morning, while some parts of Winnipeg barely had a drop.
These showers and storms are expected to continue tonight, mainly over southeastern Manitoba, before moving out into northwestern Ontario by afternoon tomorrow. Hot and sunny weather will return behind the morning rain for the afternoon. Highs in the low thirties and humidex values in the high thirties and approaching 40 are expected for Friday. Saturday will be similarly hot, albeit less humid.
It's incredible how the Winnipeg area is managing to -once again- miss out on the activity. I for one am quite dissapointed, as today was a good oportunity to get some much-needed rain.
ReplyDeleteI won't call it a non-event for us just yet. There is still a good chance of showers and storms this evening, however we will have to wait and see.
Incredibly, Winnipeg has yet escaped another thunderstorm, which WAS moving towards the city from the northwest, but then the storm dissipated as soon as it touched the Perimeter :P
ReplyDeleteI still think we will get some showers this evening, but it shouldn't accumulate to much, unless if another storm forms. However, knowing the way that today has gone, I don't think it will happen.
Looks like any chance of rain in Winnipeg is slim now. All the rain that was headed for us is now almost completely dissipated. In the end, only a general 0.5 to 1 mm of rain fell in the city, with some spots seeing less. The only spot that saw some decent rain was the extreme southwest corner with that storm early this morning which dumped up to 10 mm.
ReplyDeleteThose rain amounts are for the whole day*
ReplyDeleteThunderstorms are still possible throughout southern Manitoba today. Some may be severe, given the high instability and moisture. The best chance will be in the Interlake with lake breeze convergence, and along the escarpement and western Manitoba. Chances elsewhere are smaller.
ReplyDeleteThat cell east of Brandon at the moment is looking nasty. Large hail looks likely along with flooding rains. Damaging winds are additionally a possibility.
ReplyDeleteTough to say what tomorrow will bring. Shear is expected to be very significant, along with a strong llj. However, instability is almost non-existent in much of southern Manitoba for much of the day. MLCAPE only start rising in the evening. It's hard to say what those ingredients will bring. Given the low instability on our side of the International Border, we may just get a lot of rain. I will give some more analysis in the morning. Hopefully things are clearer then.
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