A surge of warmer air has moved into southern Manitoba for today... but it wont last. Highs today are tough to forecast due to remaining snow pack, but highs around 10°C are looking likely in Winnipeg today nonetheless. More like mid to high teens along the US border to our south where snow is almost gone. A cold front will pass mid or late afternoon and with it, strong westerly winds over 40 km/h are possible with gusts to 60 or 70 km/h. Some showers will be possible with the front, especially to our north and south. Even a rumble of thunder may occur to our south; best chance along the US border. I don't think we'll see any in Winnipeg I'm sorry to say.
We cool down for tomorrow, likely only reaching between 3 and 5°C at Winnipeg airport. A brief push of warmer air on Friday will bring us into the high single digits again.
BAD NEWS! An arctic front passes through Friday night, which will usher in unseasonably cold conditions for this time of year. Temperatures some 7-12°C below normal are expected this weekend and for part of next week as a result. We may potentially struggle to exceed the freezing mark for daytime highs on some days, especially on the weekend. By then normal highs will be around 10 to 11°C. Some models even bring in some snow on the weekend, but not all, so there's still some uncertainty about that. All we can hope for right now is that most of the snow pack melts in the next few days...
It is unclear how long the cool down will last, but there are hints of getting a little warmer by the end of next week.
Not looking too good right now for Saturday. Consensus has now become for a good snowfall in southern Manitoba... european's ECMWF, american's NAM and Canada's GEM models are all on board with a good 5-15 cm in the Winnipeg area... Not a guarantee yet, but definitely becoming something to watch.
ReplyDeleteYeah, and I don't really like those temperatures coming in behind that system. - 15C for Sunday morning. Come on, this is ridiculous. It is very true that cold winters don't disappear that easily. The good news is that it appears it will be short lived as warmer air filters back in by Thursday of next week.
ReplyDeleteYeah if those minus mid teen lows are correct, that's getting darn close to record lows.. Old record low for Sunday morning is -16.7°C in 1881.
DeleteWell, certainly nothing overly spectacular today as far as warmth is concerned for Winnipeg. While we are basically at the normal which is far from impressive most other regions are well above the normal today in to the teens. And as that wind picks up later this afternoon under now cloudy conditions it won't really fell that pleasant as even now it does not with that stiff southerly breeze. We are after all the coldest major city in Canada and today is proof of that when you look at the large contrast in temps from here to even an hour to our southwest in Carman where it is 15 C.
ReplyDeleteThere is something I need to clear up here...
DeleteWinnipeg being the coldest major city in Canada is actually a misconception. Both Saskatoon and Edmonton over an entire year are actually COLDER than Winnipeg. This is something that many people across Canada don't realise and many just assume Winnipeg is the coldest due to our cold winters.
1981-2010 normal year mean temperature:
Saskatoon 2.5°C
Edmonton 2.6°C
Winnipeg 2.9°C
Today's large contrast in temperature is mainly due to our remaining snow pack. If it wasn't for the snow pack, the gradient likely would have been much less, so I don't think today was a good example of Winnipeg being the coldest major city.
And to make matters worse, it looks like we will be receiving a good chunk of what has melted, back on Saturday. Yikes.
ReplyDeleteJJ, what is the reason as to why we have much more snow still on the ground than most other areas in the Southern Manitoba?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
Those areas received less snow and or high winds on open fields causes snow shearing.
DeleteWell, first double digit day at YWG Airport. Now 10.4 C there. Could rise another degree or two over the next couple of hours as gusty westerly winds move in.
ReplyDeleteOfficial high of 10.4°C at the airport today and 11.5°C at The Forks. Got close to 20°C along the US border today... warmest around Morden at 19.3°C... Other highs below:
ReplyDeleteMorden 19.3°C
Gretna 18.4°C
Pilot Mound 16.5°C
Carman 16.3°C
McCreary 15.0°C
Portage 14.4°C
Melita 14.3°C
Emerson 13.2°C
That may be true, however besides the north no place was colder this winter overall as Winnipeg was. We just experienced our coldest winter in 115 years, I don't think this happened anywhere else across the country. As far as Edmonton and Saskatoon are concerned, well they are much further north than us making us the coldest Southern major canadian city.
ReplyDeleteLuckily, things aren't set in stone yet for Saturday... NAM and GEM Models continue to push even further north in latest runs which would put much of the snow to our north and keep us in mainly rain. Still very uncertain.
ReplyDeleteLet's hope that's the case. Either way I don't like the cold coming behind the system.
ReplyDeleteJJ, what is May typically like following a cold winter and a below normal April?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
The correlation between winter and what May brings is a little more blurred. Of the top 20 coldest December to March periods, 8 were followed by a May that was warmer than the 1872-2013 average of 11.2°C and warmer than today's normal of 11.4°C. Therefore, May could basically go either way.
DeleteI wont say what May is like after a given April because we're just too far away from the end of the month at this point; it's really hard to say how April will finish this year.
However, technically we don't even need to use winter to see what May will be like. Mays have seen a general cold trend over the last few decades. We haven't had a top 30 warmest May in 23 years. Keeping that in mind, a decent turn to well above normal weather in May isn't overly likely if the cold May trend continues this year.
Yikes, that is an ugly forecast for Monday. Sure hope that's not the case. A high of -8 C in mid April, are you kidding me. Wow.
ReplyDeleteJJ, what's the latest as far as Saturday is concerned? Rain or Snow or both?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
I'm not ready to give anything official at this point. Models have been jumping around every single run in the last 24 hours... in location, amounts and precip type. Basically, all modes of precip. are possible with this system.
DeleteJJ. do you think that - 8C forecast for Monday is a bit unrealistic given the lesser snowpack and time of year?
ReplyDeleteI certainly hope it won't be that cold at least. That's not very good.
Thanks, Anon
I'd say it looks very unlikely at this point we'll exceed the freezing mark on Monday given current guidance. The high I suppose will somewhat depend on if we have a significantly new snowpack with Saturday's system... -8°C may be a little too cold however if don't get much snow on Saturday.
DeleteI sure hope this will be last blast of winter coming up but i'm not betting on that.
ReplyDeleteI see we are struggling again today as far as as the temp is concerned even with the lesser snowpack particularly YWG Airport which is only at 5C at the moment while most other areas are between 7C and 11C.
ReplyDeleteDid we set a windspeed record yesterday? Don
ReplyDeleteMax gust was only 56 km/h at the airport, so we weren't even close to any records.
DeleteThanks Jj thought that 86km/h reading was erroneus.
DeleteIf we follow the other 20 coldest Dec to Mar with a below normal April and that looks pretty certain, Have we ever gone five consecutive months colder than Normal and had a warmer than normal May?
ReplyDeleteALL of the top 20 coldest Dec to Mar periods were followed by Aprils that were colder than the 1872-2013 April average of 3.5°C, so that doesn't really change things.
DeleteI suspect it will be all snow with 10+ CM of snow with this storm Saturday for Winnipeg as main the low is expected to remain to our south. So due to a setback in the progression of the melting, winter unfortunately will be making a comeback. That's the story of 2014 thus far.
ReplyDeleteSnow depth down to 4 cm at my place today. It may seem like there's more, but in reality a lot of what remains is just in shady areas and due to drifting and snow piles from plows and shoveling. In the sunshine, much of the snow has melted already. Fields starting to look more empty now as well. A very rapid melt in the last few days!
ReplyDeleteSome of that melting will likely be all for not as it's looking more likely to be a snow event for us Saturday with 5 to 10 CM possible if not more.
ReplyDeleteLooking more and more like a dominantly snow event for tomorrow with 5-15 cm possible. Keep in touch with Rob's and AWM blogs for this system; I won't be able to provide any updates today as I've got some other things to take care of today.
ReplyDeleteThe magnitude of the cold coming this weekend and next week is very dissapointing for this time of year. We'll be flirting with several record lows.
Normal highs have now reached double digits as of today using the 1981-2010 normal... Little consolation to what's to come in the next few days...
ReplyDeleteLooks likely that most of the precip will stay as snow today... however as temperatures rise this afternoon, much of it will melt on contact when it is not falling very heavily. However, snow will likely be quite heavy at times later this morning and early afternoon so a quick 4-7 cm is not out of the question. Snow may mix with a bit of rain this afternoon... but the dominant precip type today looks like snow.
ReplyDeleteAgain I must stress the cold coming starting tomorrow and lasting through the entirety of the work week. Looking a models reminds me more of January than April for sure. We will flirt with record lows and record low maximums for at least 4 consecutive days. Note that the latest we've ever hit -20°C was April 12, 1881 and the latest we've ever hit -15°C was April 16, 1875... Keeping that in mind, this next cool down could be quite the event.
Forecast wont be updated until this afternoon.. Sorry for the inconvenience.
ReplyDeleteThankfully, precip has been ice pellets so far... but it should switch to snow soon. We've got a very heavy band moving in, will be interesting to see what it produces. Could get a quick accumulation if it's snow... but I wouldn't be surprised if we've got some bright banding going on today (higher reflectivities than what is actually falling).
ReplyDeleteNow it's changed over to heavy, wet snow . Radar shows "orange" band snow to our west... Don't think think I've
DeleteEver seen snow that heavy....
Band has passed and gone in south St Vital... snowflakes were just monstrous.
DeleteGig currently driving west of winnipeg,. When the really heavy band past it was
DeleteSorry about the mistake, I hate typing on my iPhone. To continue, it was white out for a minute when the really heavy band pasted.
DeleteAnother heavy band nowat Bishop Grandin Bridge
ReplyDeleteTotal 2.6 cm accumulation here, looks like the event is pretty much over other than some light precipitation at times.
ReplyDelete3.7 cm here in north kildonan
ReplyDeleteJj, with this extreme cold snap coming in tomorrow, and likely staying for the next wee k if not more, do you think there's a chance this April will turn out to have a colder mean the last's
ReplyDeleteReally hard to say this far out because what happens in the last week of April could significantly change the monthly average... However, as of today the average mean this month stands at -2.3°C... April last year finished with an average of -2.1°C BUT up to April 12 we averaged -6.3°C so the first half of April last year was much colder than this year.
DeleteNote that some models hint at some warming by next weekend...