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| Brighter days are ahead after 5 months of gloom |
A surge of warmer air moves in Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a clipper system to our north. Highs in the high single digits are expected on Tuesday, but Wednesday will be the warmest. It is hard to say just how warm it will get on Wednesday due to our remaining snow pack but double digit highs are a real possibility nonetheless. It is even possible that we may not even drop below zero Tuesday night.
Beyond that, it appears we'll be cooling down, but thankfully not back to winter-like conditions. So far, generally below normal temperatures are expected mid month at this point. Note that normal highs reach 10°C by next Friday. Therefore, anything in the single digits will be below normal by then!
One good thing is, that at least it appears that the snowpack will be gone some 2-3 weeks earlier than last year thankfully.
ReplyDeleteSkies will be clouding up later this morning and midday with a few sprinkles possible this afternoon... Would be the first raindrops since November if we do get any. Should reach 4 or 5°C... Tomorrow does indeed look cooler with a high around 2 or 3°C. I'm still not too sure about Wednesday with the impact of the snow cover, but I'm calling for something around 9 to 11°C so far.
ReplyDeleteWow...temps are already nearly as warm at the Airport as they were yesterday. Already 4C there.
ReplyDeleteThe cloud cover this afternoon should slow the climb.. shouldn't be totally cloudy so yeah maybe 6°C isn't out of the question.
DeleteThe cloud is very stubborn in moving in today... good news. All the way up to 8°C here in south St Vital.
ReplyDeleteYeah, and I see that for the first time this year the Airport reaches an actual reading of 5C. Currently 5.4C there. It did not reach plus 5 there until April 24th last year, so it's about 3 weeks earlier.
ReplyDeleteVery true.. Looks like we tie with 1960, 1893 and 1969 for 14th latest first 5°C of the year... Not as bad as last year!
DeleteAlso 8C at the forks. it's too bad that the Airport reading is used as the official reading for us daily because the temperature there is really not indicative of conditions across much of the city....for example it's about 3 to 4 C warmer in most areas of the city compared to at the Airport. And it's the same everyday especially at this time of year.
ReplyDeleteThe first rain in 5 months in south end this afternoon... Never been happier to see rain!
ReplyDeleteThat ND snow pack north of Grand Forks appeared far less consistent than other years yesterday with some ponding in ditches and much open land bare. Deeper in a narrow few fields closer to Pembina on I 29
ReplyDeleteThanks for the report..
DeleteYeah, the nice bare fields are not too far away! Looking at visible satellite, it looks like most of the snow is gone generally from the Morden to Melita areas. Temperatures down there reflect the lack of snow with highs near 11°C in Melita and Morden today. Mid to high teens are likely there on Wednesday as a result.
It appears that we better enjoy the springlike weather this week because if GFS and Euro are right, winter returns next week with another spell of well below normal temperatures.
ReplyDeleteHigh of 6.1°C at the airport today and 8.4°C at The Forks. Also:
ReplyDelete11.9°C Morden
11.4°C Sprague
10.9°C Melita
10.8°C Pilot Mound
10.5°C Pinawa
8.4°C Kleefeld
By this time of year, these types of temperatures shouldn't be as impressive as they seem to appear this year! In fact, the airport's high today was still 1°C below normal.
JJ, I read that from anonymous(7:08 PM) indicating that the cold is coming back next week. I also saw that on Robs blog.
ReplyDeletehow cold is gonna be?
Thanks, Anon
Generally below normal temperatures are expected mid-month, probably beginning next weekend. How long it will last and how cold it will be is hard to say this far out... in addition just how cold it will be also depends on how much snow pack remains on the ground. Hoepefully we can manage to melt most of the snow by the end of this week so that we stay warmer, but we'll have to wait and see at this point.
DeleteNote that thankfully we're past the worst of the winter and we probably wont be seeing any more -20's until next winter.
Thanks for that JJ. Hopefully it's not too cold. Also, JJ, it might be too early for any thoughts on this but what are the indications as far as this summer is concerned? will it be a hotter summer and a more active summer?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
Honestly, I'm not a fan of seasonal forecasts... but I've heard there's some thought that we'll be warmer than normal... I cannot tell you whether that's realistic or not.
DeleteI've calculated that of the top 20 coldest December to March periods, only 4 (20%) were followed by a summer (june-july-august) that was warmer than the 1872-2013 average mean of 18.2°C and only 3 (15%) were warmer than today's average summer mean of 18.4°C. Something to keep in mind.... but in reality it is very difficult to predict summer this far out.
Hi JJ, I am wondering after this record cold winter (since 1898-1899), what was the following winter like in 1899-1900? I realize we are probably heading into an El Nino, so it may not be a fair comparison.....but very curious!
ReplyDeleteWinter (December to March) 1899-1900 averaged -14.6°C, tied 64th coldest so about normal... and there wasn't a lot of snow...
DeleteBut yeah, as far as I'm concerned, I don't think we have any ENSO data from back then so I have no idea what were the variables of that winter.
Unfortunately, some models are starting to bring in the colder air/cold front much earlier in the day on Wednesday than they were in previous runs. Something to keep an eye on as it could keep our temperatures lower than otherwise. I'm still calling for 9-11°C however... but higher than that is looking more and more unlikely. Strong winds over 40 km/h are possible behind the front which will make it feel cooler.
ReplyDeleteJj Curiosity At best, but is this the first even numbered year of this millenia that was not a warm winter in the Peg as in 2000-2-4-6-8-10-12 ?
ReplyDeleteWinter of 2007-2008 wasn't warm by 21st century standards so I wouldn't say this was the first even numbered year of the 21st century to not have a warm winter. Overall, winters have been warming significantly in the last 30 years... this winter really has been a huge exception.
DeleteA new set of weather webcams set out by the province is now available:
ReplyDeletehttp://web20.gov.mb.ca/RI/Map?lng=-96.69&lat=49.5&z=9
The latest for Wednesday still likely has us experiencing our warmest day since November. Some very warm air is expected in snowfree areas such as the Morden to Melita corridor where highs could reach 20C for the first time. Unfortunately the snowcover will keep us cooler in the 11-14C range. Even warmer yet south of the border where Fargo is expecting a very impressive high of 25C. Too bad it's only a 1 day event as we cool off Thursday.
ReplyDeleteThe good news is, Euro has backed off on that big cooldown next week. Still below normal but not as significant.
Unfortunately. it's a slower melt today as temps are really struggling to get to that forecast of 5C.
ReplyDeleteI have to admit, I personally don't think we'll see 14C or 15C here in Winnipeg Wednesday. I think 10C is more realistic especially at the Airport. Still too much snow remaining and you can never underestimate the power of snowcover.
The joys of temperature forecasting at this time of year....! Even for today, yesterday I was saying 2-3°C for today, didn't think that was going to be too warm! Airport's just struggling at the freezing mark today....
DeleteJJ Left a photo/video?? at MB@G 4U Only way I could think of . Please add to your links Don
ReplyDeleteMany thanks for the link Don... Was not aware of that website! Will add it to the list of links.
DeleteI see E.C. has gone even more optimistic for us Wednesday. Forecasting 16C now. Not so sure about that.
ReplyDeleteNo and thankfully (because it was misleading) that 16°C is no longer in the forecast. The new 12°C seems more reasonable, but there is a chance we may not even reach that depending on how thick the cloud cover is and when the cold front passes. At this point, it looks like the front will be passing sometime in the afternoon... the earlier it passes, generally the lower the high will be tomorrow. Winds will increase to near 40 km/h behind the front so we'll definitely notice when it passes. We could also see some showers with the front as well.
ReplyDeleteI'm sticking with a high of 9-11°C at the airport at this point... but it definitely could get warmer within city limits with 12°C reasonable.
Unfortunately the weekend and beginning of next week look quite cool right now which will slow the melting. Howver the good news is that appears we will be warming up quite nicely as the Easter long weekend approaches.
ReplyDeleteJust a heads up for those who will be out and about Wednesday afternoon, it will be very windy as the cold front passes through with gusts up to 80 km/h or greater possible. There may also some showers with the passing of the front as well with perhaps some thunder.
ReplyDeleteYeah there technically could be some thunder with that front tomorrow... I'm thinking the best chance will remain mainly to our south.
DeleteNice to see the grass finally starting to peak out in spots... A very rapid melt today at my place with a snow depth now all the way down to 18 cm, about a 10 cm drop in the last 2 days. Much slower in the shade of course with drifts still about 60 cm. With temperatures likely not dropping below zero tonight and highs near 10°C tomorrow, the melt is on!
ReplyDelete