A fairly intense storm system moves in tonight. This system is quite tough to forecast across southern Manitoba due to concerns of precipitation type. Nonetheless, in Winnipeg, it is expected at this point that most of the precipitation will likely stay as rain, but some snow may mix in at times. Rain may be steady at times with 8-13 mm possible... which would be our most significant rainfall since September, 7 months ago. Areas to our north and northwest in the Parkland and Interlake regions will not be so lucky. Looks like a major snow event for them, especially in the Riding Mountain and Dauphin areas where 20 + cm is possible.
With precipitation ending early in the morning, skies should clear somewhat in the afternoon tomorrow. We should reach around 10°C.
The remainder of the weekend looks reasonable with seasonal highs in the low to mid teens for Sunday, and possibly a few degrees cooler on Monday. A few showers are possible Sunday night, but shouldn't amount to much.
Next system to watch will be mid-late week with a major system south of the border. There is the potential for a significant rain event here Wednesday through to Friday... but it is uncertain how much we'll be impacted at this point.
At this point, an extended period of above normal temperatures is not to be seen yet. Note that normal highs next week are in the 13-16°C range using 1981-2010 normals.
A little tidbit: Hard to believe, but April 18 is the earliest recorded date that Winnipeg has hit 30°C. This occurred in 1987 when we hit 30.5°C on this day:
ReplyDeletehttp://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=MAN&StationID=3698&dlyRange=1938-01-01|2008-07-24&Year=1987&Month=4&cmdB1=Go#
Things looking to stay on track so far with mainly a rain event for Winnipeg. Again, can't rule out some mixing at times, but it should mainly be rain. I'll stick with my 8-13 mm of rain forecast for now. Rain should begin mid or late evening here.
ReplyDeleteJJ, will thunderstorms also be possible for us with that big system midweek next week?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
Hard to say this far out, but I don't think the chance is very high for us for thunder... Maybe some rumbles to our south.
DeleteWinnipeg forecast EVALUATION:
ReplyDeleteI've gathered the forecast accuracy stats for my daily Winnipeg forecast and compared it to other forecasts by Environment Canada, The Weather Network, Accuweather and CBC Manitoba. Note that I will not give the exact stats from these other 4 sources because I feel that I shouldn't if I don't have their permission. What I'll do instead is compare the results of my Winnipeg forecast to the average result between the 5 forecast sources.
For this time, I will only assess the temperature forecast. The period of forecasts considered is from March 1 to today (total of 47 days of forecasts). For today's forecast, only the day 1 forecast high was considered and for yesterday's forecast, only the day 1 high through to day 2 high were considered.
First, let's start with how often the forecast high or low was WITHIN 1°C OF THE ACTUAL high or low in reality:
Forecast.....% of forecasts that were within 1°C of actual (for my forecasts)...... average result between the 5 sources
Day 1 high - 77% (ABOVE the average of 75%)
Day 2 low - 55% (ABOVE the average of 48%)
Day 2 high - 62% (BELOW the average of 66%)
Day 3 low - 46% (ABOVE the average of 43%)
Day 3 high - 46% (ABOVE the average of 41%)
Lastly, how often the forecast high or low was EXACTLY EQUAL TO THE ACTUAL high or low in reality:
Forecast........% of forecasts that were exact/perfect (for my forecasts).......... average result between the 5 sources
Day 1 high - 44% (ABOVE the average of 39%)
Day 2 low - 36% (ABOVE the average of 22%)
Day 2 high - 36% (ABOVE the average of 32%)
Day 3 low - 15% (EQUAL to the average of 15%)
Day 3 high - 17% (BELOW the average of 18%)
So overall, I'm pretty happy with how my forecasts faired...
Will post these results once every 3 or 4 months from now on.
Congratulations Jj well done. At this time of year the difference of 1 or 2 degrees is extremely important...normally. With this record unusual pattern it makes it that much more difficult. Don
DeleteThanks Don.. I enjoy doing these comparisons as it helps to see what needs some effort to improve.
DeleteLeft you another pic on your site
DeleteLooks like the rain didn't last as long and wasn't as heavy as what was anticipated. Not one forecast or model that I saw got the rain amount correct. Only received 3.7 mm here in south end, 2.7 mm at the airport and 2.8 mm in Charleswood. I also saw some mixing late evening yesterday with a bit of snow.
ReplyDeleteLooks like skies are clearing this morning which will make for a beautiful midday today, allowing us to reach around 11°C or 12°C for a high today. However, clouds should reincrease this afternoon on the backside of the system.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow looks absolutely spectacular with light winds, plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures. Mid teens are expected with a high around 15°C in Winnipeg. However, the day will end a little cloudier and likely wetter with some brief shower activity tomorrow evening associated with a cold front. A cooler day on Monday behind the front likely only reaching high single digits.
I'm still considering snow depth at a trace cm here because there is still a bit snow in a nearby field. I expect to declare the snow depth at 0 cm tomorrow... Remember, snow banks from plows and shoveling as well as large drifts left over in very dark shady spots are not considered in the snow depth calculation.
ReplyDeleteI see thunderstorms are in the forecast for parst of the RRV tomorrow. Interesting.
ReplyDeleteI didn't want to mention it yet this morning, but yeah some rumbles of thunder will be possible with those showers late tomorrow. Certainly not a major event by any means.
DeleteAnything for Winnipeg thunderstorm wise?
ReplyDeleteI doubt it.. Best chance IF there was anything looks to be to our south and southwest closer to US border.
DeleteLooks like a major storm system is threatening a significant rainfall event for us Wednesday and Thursday with perhaps some thunder then some wet snow possibly on the back side of the system Friday as colder air moves in. Too early still to go into deeper details but certainly a system to keep a close eye on. Not good as far flooding issues are concerned.
ReplyDeleteHigh of 13.0°C at the airport today... warmest day of the year so far. Likely even a degree or a few warmer tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteWould be nice for a change to get a nice day that actually stays nice but that's just not happening thus far in 2014. Once again, today will be a nice day that will abruptly come to an end as cloud cover rolls in this afternoon with some rain this evening. As for that 14 C high today, well that will depend on when the cloud cover rolls in. For those looking for real warmth, well you'll be disappointed because there's no hints whatsoever of any large scale and prolonged warmup in the long range for the next 2 to 3 weeks at least and thus meaning there's no end in sight to the below normal pattern that we've been stuck in the last 5 months.
ReplyDeleteThe cloud doesn't really thicken until later in the afternoon, so I think a high around 13-14°C shouldn't be a problem. With light winds, it will be a pretty spectacular Easter Sunday. As you mention anon, some showers this evening are likely, some may be heavy at times. I don't think we'll see any storm activity around here but with tiny amounts of instability, some thunder will be possible in extreme southwestern Manitoba before sunset. That should weaken before reaching the RRV.
ReplyDeleteA cooler day tomorrow in the high single digits, some leftover showers possible early in the morning then we should see more sun in the afternoon. Another mid teens day on Tuesday with plenty of sun.
Still uncertain about timing of precipitation with the incoming storm mid week, but it appears rain will be possible Wednesday.
I would have thought we'd be warmer than plus 5 by now. At the slow rate in rising temps thus far today it's hard to imagine that we will rise another 8 to 10 degrees today. It was actually a few degrees warmer yesterday at this time.
ReplyDeleteAnon
The high was reached between noon and 1 pm yesterday before thick clouds moved in. It actually could have gotten warmer than the high of 13°C yesterday if it wasn't for that cloud and colder air moving in.
DeleteDoes anyone still think it's gonna be 14C today? At 7C only at lunchtime, I highly doubt it. certainly not as nice of a day as it may seem.
ReplyDeleteI'm a little surprised we're not warming much.. with some warmer air moving in later today, hopefully we'll be able to peak a bit late afternoon... so I'm holding some hope we'll reach at least low teens. But it's a little dissapointing how slowly we're rising so far.
DeleteYeah, me too. I was and i guess still am hoping we can get to that 14 C today. But that may be a stretch now at this point.
ReplyDeleteUp to 11.8°C so far this afternoon at Winnipeg airport. Could still rise another degree or two so 13-14°C still a reasonable forecast so far. All the way up to 20.2°C in Melita, 19.8°C in Pilot Mound and 15.1°C in Morden. Some thundershowers are starting to develop south of Regina which may reach extreme southwestern Manitoba later today. Should see rain push into the RRV/Winnipeg area between 8 and 10 pm.
ReplyDeleteWe're now seeing evidence of the season's first thunderstorms in southern Manitoba along the Saskatchewan border at this hour... Let the season begin!
ReplyDeleteJJ, do you think we'll see snow with that system either Thursday or Friday?
ReplyDeleteI hope not.
Thanks, Anon
It appears some mixing or some wet snow is possible late Thursday but so far it doesn't look like much accumulation... we may be too warm.
ReplyDeleteNote that we return to well below normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday, likely some 7-10 degrees below normal... but thankfully it doesn't look to last long... but as anon mentioned earlier, a turn to more above normal temperatures is not in the foreseeable future. I find it incredible how difficult it is to just get one above normal day! Today's high of 12.8°C was only at normal.
Just starting to 'shower" in wiLdwood?..
ReplyDeleteJJ, Any idea of how long it'lle last?
Thanks,
TodD
Sorry, didn't get to answer your question last night Todd. Looks like it didn't last long anyway with only about half a mm of rain. I only got 0.3 mm at my place.
ReplyDeleteSkies should start to clear later this morning with some sunshine this afternoon. A cooler day only reaching about 7-9°C.
Another brief warmup tomorrow to a more seasonal 14°C. Honestly, it will be a tragedy if we don't reach about 14°C tomorrow... Is it really that difficult to get one single day that is 1°C above normal???
Still a lot of disagreement with the system mid-late week, mainly for Thursday and Friday. There's a fair amount of agreement that we'll see a decent soaking rain late Wednesday into early Thursday however. A very strong low level jet will pump in plentiful moisture all the way from the deep south US. I'm thinking 10 or more mm of rain is possible. As for Thursday-Friday, I wont go into detail yet, not until I am more confident of what will occur.
We have missed the last two major precip events thankfully
DeleteI would prefer to wait another week for anything wet. Don
Unfortunately, a narrow band of low cloud has set up over the RRV and Winnipeg this morning. It should break up and move away later this morning, at least I'm hoping. If it doesn't, it certainly could keep our high today a little lower than it could have been... Anything to keep us from getting just one above normal day. Nonetheless, I think we still got a good shot at 13-14°C today, assuming this cloud doesn't stick around too long.
ReplyDeleteI took a look around some fields around south St Vital yesterday and it appears the only snow that remains is in shady areas and with drifts. As a result, I'll consider the snow depth as officially 0 cm now here as of yesterday.... and so the answer to the poll in late March is the third week of April (Apr 15-21) which was the pick of the majority. Honourable mentions to the 5 who voted last week of April:
ReplyDelete10 votes for third week of April (Apr 15-21)
7 votes for not until May
5 votes for last week of April (Apr 22-30)
2 votes for second week of April (Apr 8-14)
jjc,whats the latest on the big system later in the week??
ReplyDeleteTH
My latest thoughts in my latest post..
ReplyDeleteGOOD THANKS JJC
ReplyDelete