A decent rainfall is expected for southern Manitoba tomorrow and Thursday. Rain should begin in the Winnipeg area tomorrow sometime around supper late afternoon or early evening or so. Periods of rain is expected to continue through the day on Thursday. In total, 15-30 mm could fall on the city, which would be our greatest rainfall since September.Winds will also be strong tomorrow with gusts up to 60 km/h. It wont be as windy on Thursday, but still with sustained winds of 20 to 30 km/h and temperatures only hovering around 4 or 5°C.
Rain may changeover to snow Thursday night with a slushy cm possible, however not much snow is expected thankfully. Friday looks gloomy with generally cloudy skies and highs only reaching aronud 4 or 5°C, almost 10°C below normal for this time of year.
Below normal temperatures are expected to continue for the weekend and into at least part of next week, as the same old pattern continues.
In case anyone missed in the previous post:
ReplyDeleteI took a look around some fields around south St Vital yesterday and it appears the only snow that remains is in shady areas and with drifts. As a result, I'll consider the snow depth as officially 0 cm now here as of yesterday.... and so the answer to the poll in late March is the third week of April (Apr 15-21) which was the pick of the majority. Honourable mentions to the 5 who voted last week of April:
10 votes for third week of April (Apr 15-21)
7 votes for not until May
5 votes for last week of April (Apr 22-30)
2 votes for second week of April (Apr 8-14)
Also going to have a new poll up for the rainfall coming up. Will have it up within 30 minutes from now.
ReplyDeleteWe dont need it. Ill post a pic later today of the gurgling river lapping at our million dollar unprepared unclosed stell gate and door. And yesterday they picked up our barrels of driveway sand.????
ReplyDeleteJJC, I NOTICED THAT EC HAS CHANGED THEIR FORECAST TO ONLY 5 MM FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. IS THIS REALISTIC OR NOT?
ReplyDeleteTHANK-YOU,
TODD
Hard to say right now, hopefully there is more clarity tomorrow... nonetheless, 5 mm is on the lowest side of what most guidance indicates right now.
DeletePlease tell there is a technical problem with the GEM. It indicates a massive snow-storm of 25 CM for Winnipeg next Monday-Tuesday! Click on my name for a link a link to the GEM.
ReplyDeleteIt's not a technical issue, but it is excessive. There will be a Colorado Low to our south... but other models are further south with the system and give much less snowfall. Euro for instance gives no precip at all for Winnipeg and keeps the precip shield along the US border. Something to watch though as it is another major system brewing late this weekend and early next week.
DeleteYep the GEM is saying 25cm next Monday! I checked out the NWS Grand Forks forecast and they mention of a Colorado low forming on the weekend and heading our way. Lets hope they are wrong this far out!
ReplyDeleteYeah that's a bit weird... Checked out Forecast,io, and it had that Colorado low moving form south-north– but are'nt we gonna be in a north-westerly flow Sunday before it comes through?
DeleteAlso, why would we be getting heavy snow in mid April if we where in a southerly flow (presuming the Colorado low will change our flow to a more southerly one)? Or will we be hit by the cold front in the low before the warm air has a chance to swarm in from the south– often the case with these Colorado lows– most of the precipitation is on the north-westerly side of the low.
Just curios with these questions– anyone smart enough to answer them can– but don't go into to much reasearch for them.
Thanks, Leon
Leon, quite simply the warm sector (and warm front) would just remain well to our south, and we remain on the north and northwest side of the system, the cold sector, with generally easterly winds at first becoming north-northwesterly as the system moves east. The centre of the low remains to our south and east and so the winds don't have the chance to become southerly as the warm sector stays south and east of us.
DeleteWow! Up to 26 in Medicine Hat, Alberta... Wonder wen it will get that warm here... Or will it ever?
ReplyDeleteStill some discrepancies in model land, but right now I'm leaning towards 15-25 mm of rainfall for Winnipeg with this next system. Most of this rain will fall this evening through to midday tomorrow before the bulk of the rains move to our north and east. Rain should begin early this evening.
ReplyDeleteBehind the main area of rain tomorrow, there will likely be some pop-up showers developing in southwestern Manitoba up to the RRV. I think with a bit of instability there could even be a few rumbles of thunder with these... best chance in southwestern Manitoba, and the chance will be best if they can manage to get a few sunny breaks tomorrow morning. If some sun is not seen, the threat for thunder will be lower than otherwise.
The threat for snow has diminished for Winnipeg. I don't think we'll see much if any at all, so that's some good news.
Looks like a little less rain than expected, but still the most rain we've had since September. 6.9 mm here in South St Vital, 7.8 mm in Charleswood and 6.7 mm at the airport as of 7 am.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we will continue to see periods of showers throughout the day today in Winnipeg so generally a very gloomy day. Could see another 5-10 mm before the day is over. Thanks to everyone for taking the time to vote in the poll... average vote is about 16-17 mm.
ReplyDeleteI'm still thinking some thunderstorms are likely in southwestern Manitoba today. I think the best chance will be in extreme southwestern Manitoba around Melita where they are managing to get some decent sunshine this morning. However, the risk runs eastward as far east as Morden and northward as far north as the Trans Canada. It doesn't look like there is even a chance here in the RRV unfortunately. The storms will likely be slow movers today.
Other than that, tomorrow looks cloudy and chilly only reaching around 7°C. Sunnier to start Saturday but likely with increasing cloud ahead of a Colorado Low to our south. By the way, it is looking more and more likely we will see more rain with this system Sunday/Monday.
In case anybody didn't notice yet, the thundercast has returned! There are a few changes this year... the forecast period now runs from 6 am to 6 am instead of midnight to midnight. I've also updated the criteria for the risk categories which can be viewed by clicking the legends at the top of the thundercast page if at anytime anyone needs clarification. Lastly, if there is no risk for storms, only a brief message will be included in the discussion now: ''not a significant chance''.
ReplyDeleteThere will also be some major changes to my photos tab coming up...
DeleteJj The amount of info on your site is outstanding Thanks for all the updates. Yesterday there was some talk of severe weather convection as far north as Nebraska. Is that threat moving north or east.?
ReplyDeleteThere's risk for severe weather In Nebraska Saturday and Sunday, but that threat will move east and not north... and thanks for the comment :)
DeleteLooks like thunderstorms did materialize after all in the extreme southwest corner of the province today. Second storm event of the season... They were slow movers, one near Killarney in particular MIGHT have locally dropped 10-20 mm of rain in a short period of time, according to radar estimates.
ReplyDeleteRain starting to mix with snow as temperatures fall.... We shouldn't get much if any accumulation tonight... but if temperatures fall enough and precipitation continues to fall well into the night, beware, a light slush accumulation would be possible.
ReplyDeleteYikes, already accumulating! A slush cm or two looking more and more likely, but it'll melt quickly in the next day or two at least!
DeleteSwell, not as bad as Thunder Bay... They have got a snow fall warning in place - expecting 15 cm according to ec. I'm also pretty sure they got at least 5 cm with last Saturdays storm, and the one before that... So we are not alone.
DeleteOh definitely; northern Ontario has had it worse than us so far this spring with a persistent snow pack and multiple snowstorms. Armstrong, Ontario, north of Lake Superior, is still reporting snow depth of half a metre at this time: http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?StationID=3987
DeleteLooks like a total of about 12 mm of rainfall with this system for Winnipeg (airport and here in south end)... so the majority wins in the poll with the 10-20 mm of rainfall category winning!
ReplyDeleteTotal of 3.0 cm here in south end. It should melt away today!
ReplyDelete