However, we have now reached an important milestone when it comes to the lack of thunderstorms in the last several months. Assuming that we don't get a thunderstorm today, we have now reached 288 consecutive days without a thunderstorm. This is now officialy the longest period on record without receiving a thunderstorm in Winnipeg since 1953.
Our next best chance for storms in Winnipeg will be next Monday. Let's hope we finally manage to get something!
Here's a couple pictures I took of that convective activity we had yesterday late afternoon and early evening in Winnipeg. The rainbow one is actually quite cool because it's a good example of the ''dissipating stage'' of a pulse thunderstorm.
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| Growing cumulus late afternoon over south Winnipeg; would eventually produce downpours over W/SW ends |
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| Dissipating storm and rainbow around 7:45 pm June 7, 2013 |
In case anyone missed my forecast from the previous post:
ReplyDeleteLooking like a pleasant day today thankfully with lots of sun and temperatures reaching the mid 20's. I'm anticipating a high of 25°C here in Winnipeg. We will see a bit of cloud this afternoon but it does not look something that will ruin the day right now. It will be breezy out of the southeast however.
Tomorrow things change so enjoy today. It will be cloudier with only a few sunny breaks here and there. Good chance for showers in the afternoon and evening. Not much accumulation, perhaps a few mm.
Monday things get a tad interesting again. Looks like we will get a good amount of lift and instability thanks to the system in Saskatchewan. Showers and thunderstorms are likely across southern Manitoba, with the best risk in the Interlake and Parklands.
Still looking like we're in for warm weather mid/late week, but let's just hope cloud cover doesn't ruin things.
Should mention that storm risk doesn't look to high right now mid week... after Monday, main risk wont be until the end of the week, either Friday or Saturday depending on timing.
DeleteJulien,
ReplyDeleteAccording to the woodlands radar the whole city got showers around 11:00 pm to 12:00 yesterday-I only reported 1 MM?????? Do you think that there is something wrong with the radar.
Mistake that was how much rain I got thursday. Yesterday I got 8.9 MM of rain.
DeleteI don't see that on radar at all Willy.
DeleteYou can see it here:
Deletehttp://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?RadarSite=XWL&sYear=2013&sMonth=6&sDay=7&sHour=23&sMin=10&Duration=12&ImageType=PRECIP_RAIN
Oh I see Willy, it's a mixup with the times
ReplyDelete23:10 UTC = 6:10 pm CDT or 18:10 CDT
At this time of year (during Daylight savings time), you substract 5 hours from the UTC time to get the local time (CDT).
In the winter, you substract 6 hours from the UTC time to get the local time (CST).
Sorry about that mix up.
DeleteNo problem, now you know =) That mixed me up in the beginning as well.
DeleteChance of thunderstorms is low for us today thanks to all this cloud cover. We'll see a chance for showers this afternoon and evening with a small chance of some rumbles of thunder but main risk in western Manitoba today.
ReplyDeleteBetter chance for us will be tomorrow as the trough swings east and shifts our winds from the south to the west/northwest in the afternoon. Could see some showers and storms with that, but at this point looks like best risk to our east, north and northwest... We'll see.
How much rain are we looking at today and tomorrow, if any?
ReplyDeleteNothing major, just a few mm on each day most likely.. more if we manage to get thunderstorms.
Deletethe airport observed "light snow shower" at 12:00!
ReplyDeleteThey just changed it to "light rain shower.
DeleteOver 10 mm of rain in Steinbach so far today according to Manitoba agriculture. Only about 1 mm here in Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteI've issued a high risk of thunderstorms for southwestern Manitoba for late this afternoon and this evening. Storms are moving in from Saskatchewan will likely continue to produce lots of lightning over southwestern Manitoba, which has been sunnier than us today allowing for higher amounts of instability. Storms should weaken as they move eastwards closer to escarpment and Lake Manitoba. Here in the RRV we'll have a better risk for storms tomorrow.. How numerous they are will depend on how much sun we can get.
We have now officialy begun the severe thunderstorm season here in Manitoba.
ReplyDeleteSevere thunderstorm warning now out for Macgregor and Austin areas east of Brandon. Note that this cell is severe for only a very isolated area. It is warned due to its almost stationary movement which could cause flash flooding in the affected area with 50 + mm of rain possible.
JJ, if we are getting severe storms today what are tomorrow's chances of getting them?
ReplyDeleteI don't think it'll be much different from today (not a good risk for severe storms). That severe storm near Portage is only severe warned because it's moving so slowly. Large hail and damaging winds not being mentioned. Tomorrow, things should be moving faster.
ReplyDeleteThe risk for thunderstorms looks pretty good for the RRV, Interlake and eastern and southeastern Manitoba today. The trough will provide some convergence today and an upper level jet stream right through southern Manitoba will help provide additional lift for storm formation. I think this will be Winnipeg's best chance so far this year.
ReplyDeleteStorms should form this afternoon and continue eastward in the evening. If we manage to maintain some sunshine today to raise LI (lifted index) and instability values, I wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated severe storm today after all. Will have to be monitered. Not a widespread severe event either way, just isolated in nature.
Already looking interesting in western Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan with tornado warnings near Yorkton and tornado watches extended to Dauphin, Swan River, Minnedosa, Riding Mountain and Gladstone areas.
ReplyDeleteSure a change from things looked yesterday...
ReplyDeleteSevere thunderstorm watch out for the RRV including Winnipeg, Steinbach, Morden, Emerson and Portage areas.
Not issuing a slight risk of severe thunderstorms mainly due to the fact that the severe storms are expected to remain isolated in nature at this time.
DeleteWill keep the wording/risk as 'isolated' for now.
Issued a slight risk of severe storms considering the number of severe cells currently in place over western Manitoba.
DeleteStorms struggling to develop and organise here in the RRV so far. I'm sure all this cloud cover so far today has been a major inhibitor. We'll have to hope the storms to our west and northwest maintain some strength as they get here to get something right now. A strong cell now crossing Lake Manitoba will have to be closely monitored as it's could hit Winnipeg or close to.
ReplyDeleteOne getting organised near Morden. Large hail possible, warnings issued.
DeleteSevere thunderstorm warning for Winnipeg. Looks like storm may have a strong outflow wind so damaging wind gusts are possible with this cell. Torrential downpours likely and the possibility for large hail.
ReplyDeleteAll I got was nickel- quarter size hail and pouring rain for a few minutes. No strong wind gusts either.
DeleteWow, I didn't even get a drop of rain here in River Park South! Watched to my north in envy! Thanks for the report Willy.
DeleteJulien,
ReplyDeleteis there a chance of another cell hitting us later? Hopefully since the the last one barley hit me.
We may get something later, but I think the worst is over. The storms to our west/northwest aren't severe warned right now. Will keep an eye on it next couple hours.
DeleteTook my bike around and it turns out the storm missed me by just a few blocks ;P
Well that ends our streak of no thunderstorms in Winnipeg. We went 289 consecutive days without getting a thunderstorm, the longest period in at least 60 years...
ReplyDelete2 cm diameter hail reported at the airport (about Penny sized)
Pardon me, 2 cm diametre hail is nickel sized. Sorry for the mistake.
DeleteTough luck for us folk that missed out on the storms earlier. Chance of another one is only dwindling.
ReplyDeleteNext best chance for storms looks like the end of the week on Friday.
Congratulations to the 3 poll responders who answered June 9 to 12 in the thunderstorm poll, you were bang on!
ReplyDeleteFriday is looking very interesting for thunderstorms in southern Manitoba. Strong shear, a very strong low-level jet, lots of moisture and an approaching cold front are all expected. Best risk right now looks like southwestern Manitoba for the afternoon and evening, then any storms that form there and in North Dakota would push into the RRV and southeastern Manitoba Friday night which could brings lots of rain and potentially some severe nocturnal weather. Will have a to keep a close eye on this situation.
ReplyDeleteJJ, I looked at the longer range models via the 12Z GFS, it is showing some intense instability on Wednesday and Thursday of next week. CAPES over 3000 J/Kg and LI's past -8 in Southern Manitoba (Wednesday June 19 and Thursday June 20th. It showed up on the 00z run of last night as well, thoughts? It could be a very interesting for the next couple of weeks. We are in severe weather season after all. The good thing about it is that I'm done school on the day the severe weather could start...
ReplyDeletePossibility certainly there sometime mid/late next week based on current models. Looks like we may see another ridge building sometime mid week and then there would be a risk for storms as the ridge breaks down a bit... but way too far to confirm it.
Delete