16.0 mm at the airport brings the June total to 26.0 mm so far, which if we somehow managed to escape rainfall in the next 9 days, would be a 7th driest June... but like we saw yesterday, it only takes 1 thunderstorm to dump nearly a month's worth of rain. With multiple shower and thunderstorm chances in the next few days, we will most likely be adding some to that monthly total.
Lighter amounts in south Winnipeg brings the monthly total only up to 15.4 mm at my place so far... so it's actually been quite a dry June in some areas so far. This could possibly be attributed to the slow start in the thunderstorm season this year thanks to a late spring. Things are only starting to heat up right now when it comes to thunderstorm activity with a peak expected to be a few weeks later than usual this summer.
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| Taken just north of La Salle as a cell rapidly formed just south of Winnipeg |
HRRR model brings a MCS into Southern Manitoba tonight.....Interesting.
ReplyDeleteHard to say what will happen tonight when it comes to location; as usual lots of disagreement. All I can say is don't be surprised to see rain and hear thunder anytime between midnight and noon tonight/tomorrow.
DeleteSo there we go, area of storms and rain ended up to our west.. so it did occur as expected, just not in the RRV.
ReplyDeleteRain and thunderstorms very likely tomorrow all across southern Manitoba as a more potent system moves in. 10-30 mm expected in general, but higher amounts certainly possible, especially with thunderstorms. Will monitor the situation today.
ReplyDeleteBased on radar and visible satellite, it appears it will be possible that the line of storms to our north may build southwards in the next couple hours.. but we'll see if it manages to build as far south as Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteMore sunshine than anticipated today across southern Manitoba. We will likely see redevelopment of storms this afternoon, mainly west of Winnipeg, with severe storms possible. Even a severe thunderstorm watch has just been issued for southwestern Manitoba, and that includes an extension of a slight risk by the SPC south of the border into the area. Any boundaries left over by the MCS overnight will help.
ReplyDeleteEnvironment Canada anticipating rainfall warnings to be issued later for tomorrow's rainfall in southwestern Manitoba. Not good news after the rains they had just last night. 50-100 mm fell there by early this morning with flooding in some areas. Reston under a state of emergency.
ReplyDeleteJJ,
ReplyDeleteif your wondering why I have not been posting comments on your blog in the last little while it is because whenever I go to your blog it says "Safari can't open page". Also, is there a chance of severe storms in the next few hours?
I'm sorry to hear you're having trouble visiting Willy; I'm afraid I have no idea why it would be doing that :(
DeleteThe line of severe thunderstorm just west of portage is moving extremely slowly. I sought it will hit us.
ReplyDeleteCertainly does not look likely for storms in the RRV tonight. Those storms along and east of the escarpment seem to be weakening at this point. Better chance for decent rainfall and storms for us tomorrow with that potent system moving in.
ReplyDeleteYour totally right Anon.
DeleteAccording to EC in place for portage region 150 MM of rain has fallen in the gladstone region dew to the almost stationary cell!
ReplyDeleteWas chasing the cell just west of Portage... Incredible how stationary the cell was.. we didn't have to move much that's for sure; just sat and watched the storm for over an hour!
ReplyDeleteLocalized amounts of 150 + mm according to radar so some farmers must really be seeing serious flooding this evening.
Pretty large MCS in North Dakota looks to track into Southern Manitoba overnight....something worth keeping an eye on.
ReplyDeleteRainfall is just a really big issue right now in southwestern Manitoba in particular. Tonight/tomorrow is going to be very interesting, there's so much moisture to work with.
DeleteDoesn't look like the RRV will see whole lot of this action today at least right now. Most of the precip is moving northwestwards from ND into southwestern MB which has seen alot rain since Friday night.
ReplyDeleteI anticipate rainfall moving into the Winnipeg area later today, most likely early afternoon. It could be heavy at times with embedded thunderstorms possible.
ReplyDeleteThis break in the cloud will likely help push our temperatures to 24°C or 25°C or so before rain moves in this afternoon. Hopefully this extra sun raises our chances at some storms.. Looking foreward to a good rain, lawns around this end of the city has almost stopped growing it's been so dry.
ReplyDeleteGood line of storms southwest of Winnipeg moving towards Portage....Pretty heavy downpours likely...other than that not much heading towards Winnipeg except for some light showers to the southeast from Minnesota. My thinking is most of the heavy stuff will miss Winnipeg which has been pretty much the case in the last couple of days.
ReplyDeleteRains filling in and intensifying as they approach and I expect that to continue. I think we have a good chance at hearing some thunder here in the city in an hour or so.
ReplyDeleteActually, it's certainly looking that way now....Skies sure darkening to south and southwest. Could certainly use a good soaking to help to drying lawns.
ReplyDeleteLet me know if you hear any thunder this afternoon in your end of the city
DeleteLooking at latest radar scans, It doesn't look like there's much in the way of lightning with the rain moving in from the south and southwest.
ReplyDeleteI was just going to say that, looks like the storms that fired just to our west are taking over. We'll see what happens.. Still going to be some heavy rains with the final band but thunder less of a threat with it.
DeleteBeware of Woodlands radar at the moment. Heavy thunderstorm on top of radar is causing some attenuation issues to our south so the rain is actually heavier than shown.
ReplyDeleteLatest radar scans, even show area of rain southwest of Winnipeg weakening somewhat. Certainly doesn't look like much for us.
ReplyDeleteActually thanks for mentioning that. I was actually surprised when I saw that latest radar scan and wondered if that was actually accurate.
ReplyDeleteJust looking at latest lightning image from EC's website and it indicates lightning strikes between highway 2 and highway 3 towards Sanford. That cell could move into the city.
ReplyDeleteAs it turns out, just rain here in Winnipeg and not heavy either. Lightning now well south of Winnipeg though.
ReplyDeleteMust be getting quite the downpour in the west end. 3 mm in Charleswood in the last 6 minutes. Only light showers here in southeast end.
ReplyDeleteDownpour in river heights now with small rumbles of thunder. I think your right Anon.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the report Willy; only starting to pick up here.
DeleteHeavier steady downpour here in Windsor Park also now but no thunder.
ReplyDeleteThanks anon,
DeleteAlready 10 mm in Charleswood and we're not half way done yet..
Get ready for an even heavier band moving in.. 30 mm possible in parts of the city by the end of the afternoon.
DeleteGot 31 mm here in Windsor park....some minor street flooding here as well and it's still raining hard here.
ReplyDeleteThanks anon.
ReplyDeleteRainfall amounts up to 3:45 pm in Winnipeg:
Charleswood 27.4 mm
Whyte Ridge 21.2 mm
U of W (downtown) 20.6 mm
South St Vital (me) 19.0 mm
Another band of showers to our southwest moving in for later.. wont be getting the rain amounts we have gotten so far though that's for sure.. but it could be heavy at times.
Looks like a band of showers and perhaps thunder is developing southwest of Winnipeg and could move in later. Could be a brief strong wind gust with this. I've noticed that SPC has put us and southeast MB under slight risk for this evening.
ReplyDeleteThat band of convection should move into the city in the next 15 to 30 minutes. Could see lightning and some strong wind gusts with this.
ReplyDeleteStill haven't seen a single lightning strike in that line.. but a strike or two can't be completely ruled out.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I think it's just gonna be another quick moving potentially heavy downpour and that's about it. Winnipeg seems to be a barrier for storms such that by the time they move towards us they fizzle out.
ReplyDeleteTorrential downpours in south Winnipeg with that line.. got 3.3 mm at my place bringing today's total to 22.3 mm.
ReplyDeleteQuite a heavy downpour here in Windsor Park also at the moment. Got 3.4 mm here so far but still raining and now have 34.4 mm for today's total so far.
ReplyDeleteJJ, until we start getting some really big thundrstorm events through Winnipeg and the Red River Valley, I give up waiting for them. It seems southwest manitoba has had all the luck lately, when do you think we'll start getting luck? It's just been an insane 3rd year all over again since 2010 came.
ReplyDeleteI think it takes extra patience this year. We've had a late start due to a late spring, and now that things are only starting to heat up thunderstorm wise, it's just bad luck that a lot has missed us. I wouldn't give up hope yet on 2013.
DeleteEverything this year seems like it's a good 2-3 weeks late.. when I was out chasing the last few days, it was surprising how crops were small and had only recently come out of the ground. Now the thunderstorm season is another example.
DeleteIt seems like we are in the region of late May, weatherwise. I had huge optimism in the year of 2010 in late June and then it became one of the best storm seasons I had in my life. I have a good feeling right now that 2013 will be an awesome year, maybe better than 2010. Thanks for keeping up my hope JJ.
ReplyDeleteI have always wondered if you were a guy or a girl, it is hard to know by just talking on a blog.
ReplyDeleteI'm male
DeleteOkay, thanks. Keep up the good work on the blog, I appreciate it.
DeleteThanks Mike :)
DeleteQuite windy in the city now with a little drizzle. Looks like perhaps the last band of moderate downpours today could come thru the Winnipeg area from Portage in the next 1 hour or two.
ReplyDeleteActually, it looks like that band of showers from Portage is weakening somewhat and looks to move into the northern parts of the city perhaps if it stays together.
ReplyDeleteJJ, what's the severe weather potential for Winnipeg and Southern Manitoba this week if any? Perhaps Tuesday and Wednesday?
This is what I personally see right now..
ReplyDeleteThere will be a risk for thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba on late afternoon and evening Tuesday. Unfortunately, some models show only low wind speeds from the surface to the 500 mb level, so certainly not the best setup I've ever seen. Isolated severe storms possible due to high instability and moisture anticipated... but with low wind speeds above ground I'm skeptical we'd see too much. However, GEM brings in slightly stronger winds so we'll have to monitor.
Risk shifts eastward Wednesday, but right now it looks like main risk will be east of the RRV... but I'll keep an eye on it, it's still early.
It looks a little bit better now for southwestern Manitoba tomorrow with a bit more wind above ground and shear than what I saw last night. Would be good news.
DeleteAwesome! I'll be out in Beausejour on Wednesday so I'm hoping things get going there. I'd like it to be at night though, but I guess not based on your current look at things.
ReplyDeletePotential is there for first 30°C of the year in Winnipeg tomorrow. However, we will need the amount of sunshine currently expected to get there. It will also be quite humid with humidex values at least in the mid 30's but potentially as high as the high 30's, so it's going to feel like July out there.
ReplyDeleteRisk of severe storms for southwestern Manitoba in the afternoon and evening associated with a troughline.
Here in the Winnipeg area, there will be a small risk of a shower or storm in the afternoon and evnening tomorrow, but better chance of showers with risk of thunderstorms to push in tomorrow night, remnance of the storms in southwestern Manitoba. Will keep an eye on it.
These showers and storms will gradually push east on Wednesday with clearing skies in the afternoon for Winnipeg. Small chance of more showers or storms in the afternoon. Severe risk not looking widespread on Wednesday at this time.
A heads-up that I wont be able to update the thundercast and Winnipeg forecast on Wednesday morning.. but might be able to in the afternoon.
ReplyDelete