The day on Saturday will start off fairly bright and sunny from the Interlake southwards. However, with daytime heating scattered and disorganised pop up showers and thunderstorms are expected across southern Manitoba in the afternoon and evening thanks to some lift and instability associated with a low pressure system in Saskatchewan. Due to the scattered nature of the activity, some local areas may get lucky and remain dry while other localized regions may see multiple rounds of showers and storms. As a result, rainfall amounts will vary greatly. Overall, the day tomorrow can be described as sunny to start, then unsettled in the PM hours. Also keep in mind it is expected to be windy from the west/southwest.Sunday will be similar. However, it wont start off as sunny as Saturday did. More cloud than sun is expected for most of the day, with the most sunshine occuring in the morning. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected again in the afternoon and evening throughout southern Manitoba. Again, rainfall amounts will vary depending on your location. Winds are expected to be lighter than Saturday with only a gentle westerly breeze.
We may see some shower and storm activity as early as mid afternoon here in Winnipeg if the storm activity southwest of Portage maintains its strength.
ReplyDeleteAre those storms that are ongoing right now going to be the ones for the evening, or not? Thank's
ReplyDeleteNo these aren't the ones that are anticipated for this evening. The front itself is still in southeastern Saskatchewan and isn't expected to reach us until evening.. I'm just hoping right now that these showers and added cloud cover this afternoon doesn't reduce our chances this evening, only time will tell.
DeleteSlight risk of severe thunderstorms now out for southwestern and south-central Manitoba. Looks like there's at least a bit of clearing in the area which could be just enough for some cells to form and become strong. Dynamics are quite strong today.
ReplyDeleteThunderstorm formed right over me in south end a few moments ago.. Torrential downpour for 5 minutes with total 1.3 mm.
ReplyDeleteStorms trying to form in southwestern Manitoba this afternoon but struggling to break the cap. Something trying to get going near US border right now near Langdon, ND.. will have to watch.
ReplyDeleteJJ,
ReplyDeletedo you think the storms just south of the city are due to hit the city?
Next 45 minutes to watch in the city as a line of cells moves this way. So far, capping has won out by blocking too much formation, but we'll have to watch because anything that breaks the cap can become strong in a hurry.
ReplyDeleteI'll definitely watch the storms coming through the city in the next while!
Deleteit's starting to rain hear in river heights. No thunder yet
DeleteNo lightning recorded yet.
DeleteAs for by strong I should say sub-severe with torrential downpours with maybe gusty winds and small hail, but actually it doesn't look like these will become severe.
Small chance we'd get something with the front itself (that line of storms in southwestern Manitoba) late evening... but we'll see. Some models push it into Interlake missing us.
DeleteNothing really getting too organised around here. Just a bust of a day unless we get something late evening.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the line of storms is linking up in Western Manitoba. Unfortunately, those storms are just following the average shear vector, so they are currently on pace to move north of winnipeg...hopefully they either start moving a bit away from the mean flow or develop more southward.
ReplyDeleteHey Scott :)
DeleteYeah I hope something starts forming in what looks like a cumulus field south of Brandon... otherwise agreed rest will move to our north.
Threat for severe storms mostly over for southern Manitoba. Although there was some buildup on the south side of those thunderstorms in western Manitoba, there's just nothing that sticking together very long and producing lightning. Don't think we'll be seeing any storms in Winnipeg tonight... but there's still a slight chance with that front. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteWe'll get some locally heavy downpours next half hour.. no lightning recorded yet.. but can't rule out a rumble or two.
JJ,
ReplyDeleteHow much showers and or thunderstorms should we expect over the next few days?
Small chance of showers or storms this afternoon but best risk today will be late afternoon and evening for Winnipeg. It is expected to be scattered in nature so if we're lucky we could get nothing... Or we could get 2 or 3 showers/storms roll through, we'll see. Any storms today could produce small hail and gusty winds.
DeleteTomorrow there's a good chance for showers with a risk of thunderstorms again in the afternoon and evening. I think we have a good chance at getting at least some rain tomorrow.. but again it is expected to be scattered in nature.
Very slight chance of an isolated shower Monday, but I'm leaning towards us staying DRY.
Scattered showers to be moving in in an hour or so. Might hear some thunder as well.
DeleteWell this extra sunshine this morning is just a bonus. Things cloud up this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteWe got a brief but heavy downpour here in south end around 1:15 am as one lone and isolated cell managed to survive after sunset. Not lightning from it though.
JJ,
ReplyDeletewhat are your thoughts on the storms developing in western Mb? Any chance of getting some strong although non severe thunderstorms in the next few hours?
Small chance of cold core funnels with the storms today.. otherwise storms are fairly weak with torrential downpours the main threat. They are on track to miss us right now. Still a chance of showers this evening with the odd rumble of thunder if we get lucky. Overall, rain threat not as high as I was previously anticipating for Winnipeg with bulk of showers/storms all around us to our north, west and east.
DeleteWow, it's nice to finally see the long range models trend towards above normal temperatures for once. I don't think I've seen this much orange over southern Manitoba on the NAEFS model prediction all year!:
ReplyDeletehttp://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2013061700_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png
This map is for the period of June 25 to July 2
Only 10.0 mm of rain at the airport so far this June (up to and including yesterday). This makes this first 16 days of June the 12th driest on record since 1873.
ReplyDeleteHowever, it's been even drier in other areas that missed out on the June 10 thunderstorm. I've only received 6.9 mm at my place in south St Vital so far this month.
Historically, June is typically the wettest month of the year. Normal is just under 90 mm for the month. Thunderstorms make a large part of the rainfall this time of year, so it's too early to say if this will end up being anywhere close to a record breaking dry June... but if we manage to escape thunderstorms in the next 2 weeks, it could happen. We'll see.
Long-range looks promising both for temperatures and thunderstorm chances. A warm front Thursday/Thursday night right now looks like our first good chance for thunderstorms with the potential for severe storms if the curren trend occurs. Daytime highs in the high 20's for both Wednesday and Thursday. Dewpoints rise significantly on Thursday to the high teens or perhaps even near 20°C. Very muggy!
ReplyDeleteMore chances of storms Friday into the weekend as well. Too early to confirm.
Area of cumulus formed right over northern RRV and Winnipeg this morning. Some are looking ominous so it looks like a chance for a shower or thunderstorm is justified for today.
ReplyDeleteJJ,
ReplyDeleteGFS is really pushing the storms at the end of this week-they cram 70 MM of rain thursday night in to friday, in all they have 120 MM for us! realistically how much rain might we receive?
Rainfall amounts will depend on if we get hit by thunderstorms or not.. but high amounts are possible if we get multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Moisture is expected to be extremely abundant once again both at the surface and above the surface. 70 mm might be overdone for Thursday night I agree, but localized amounts of 50 mm are possible anywhere that gets hit repeatedly by storms.
DeleteJJ, what are the chances of severe weather for the Winnipeg area Thursday? also are tornadoes a possibility somewhere in Southern Manitoba Thursday or Friday?
DeleteDepending on warm frontal position and cloud cover, severe storms will definitely be possible on Thursday afternoon and evening with the best risk close to the US border, but cannot rule them out as far north as here neither. Large hail, damaging winds and torrential rains would be the main threats.. but a tornado cannot be ruled out in the early stages of thunderstorm growth in southwestern or south-central Manitoba.
DeleteMy concern is cloud cover, as usual, which would reduce the severe threat. Hopefully we can get some sunshine for us storm lovers. We'll see, keep in mind there's still great uncertainty.
Well, let's hope this doesn't become a repeat of last Friday. These types of of setups have a habit of collapsing in Manitoba for whatever reason.
ReplyDeleteOne thing that is certainly nice to see is that it appears that we will finally see some above normal temperatures next week as models seem to bring in a much warmer pattern into early July....here's hoping.
JJ, what's the latest as far as Friday and the weekend is concerned? are more severe storms possible those days?
ReplyDeleteShowers and thunderstorms possible Friday through Sunday, but there is disagreement on solutions. With high instability still forecast, some severe storms might be possible but I'll wait before making any more official predictions for those days.
DeleteWell, according to latest model runs, it doesn't look great for severe weather Thursday as an ongoing MCS will once again spoil the party as they say. So basically this will be a non-event for Winnipeg and the RRV as these MCS's from southwest manitoba fizzle out by the time they get here. Hate to the spoil the party for us storm lovers but Manitoba is not the place to be to be chasing storms. We'll see what happens but I certainly wouldn't spend too much time on something that is not likely going to happen as is most often the case around here.
ReplyDeleteIt does look like best risk for severe storms will remain along the US border and in southwestern Manitoba. But I think we still have a good chance at some thunder here in Winnipeg later in the evening which would be remnance of whatever forms in southwestern Manitoba. Main threat for us would be heavy rains. GEM and GFS giving incredible amounts of 50+ mm over parts of southern Manitoba that get the heaviest rains. That might be a bit overdone given the convective nature, but some high amounts could still occur locally given the amount of moisture available.
ReplyDeleteIs there a chance that winnipeg could get some severe thunderstorms during the period? also is a MCS still likely? Thanks....
ReplyDeleteRight now, I don't consider the severe threat for Winnipeg very high. However, an MCS type of scenario is still possible tomorrow evening/night, but it is possible that North Dakota may steal the action and we would be left with showers with embedded thunderstorms. It will depend on what forms to our west...
DeleteI'd say easily the warmest day of the year today. Feeling really summerlike outside and it's not even lunchtime yet. Perhaps we may see our first 30C day if we stay in the sunshine all day. Already 26C at 11AM. Finally we are seeing some weather that coincides with the time of year that we are in....Been a longtime coming. Enjoy!!!!
ReplyDeleteAlready 28°C in some backyard stations as of 11:30 am. With the light winds and if we manage to maintain sunshine, some backyard stations may certainly reach 29 or 30°C today. It's a stretch for the airport though. Still sticking with my high of 28°C for the airport for now.
Delete26.7C..(27C) now as YWG Airport as of noon. So it should easily reach 28C or so at the Airport today which would be the warmest temperature there so far this year.
ReplyDeleteJJ, do you think EC's forecast for sunshine through the much of the day tomorrow is too optimistic?
Right now, it does look like the day will start fairly sunny but not an all-out sunny sky. Clouds increase late morning into the afternoon, becoming cloudy at some point in the afternoon before chances for showers/storms increase in the evening. Should be enough sun for us to reach the high 20's tomorrow, high most likely reached early or mid afternoon.
DeleteJJ, I have noticed from several sources that they are saying a lot of rain tomorrow night if a thunderstorm complex were to hit us in the city...
ReplyDeleteWunderground: (CYWG)77.5mm with the addition of another 23.6mm of rain Sunday night in storms.
Accuweather: 63mm of rain THursday to Friday.
Thoughts?
There certainly will be high amounts of rain with any complex that forms. However, location of this complex is uncertain. From what I've seen, the trend is for the bulk of it to move south of the Trans Canada or just grazing the US border... but predicting location of these complexes is tough and not clear-cut. It's too early to confirm anything on location right now.
DeleteAll the way up to 29.5°C at my place in south St Vital as of 2 pm.
ReplyDeleteMCS is Southwest Manitoba tomorrow morning, well not according to EC's forecast. Not forecasting rain or storms for that area until the afternoon. I've noticed the forecast highs for tomorrow were also downgraded from 28 to 25 or 26. Does not really seems like a forecast conducive for severe weather. And with a stiff east to northeast wind tomorrow, I for one don't see dewpoints climbing to around 20C.
ReplyDeleteEast and northeast winds are generally cooler, not warm and humid. Almost sounds like everything for tomorrow is messed up with tons of uncertainties as to what will really happen. But it certainly seems like this is another bust for Southern Manitoba as is most often the case. Southern MB is not the place to chase. After all we see the least severe weather of all three prairie provinces.
Potential MCS tomorrow morning will have to be monitored I agree. Some things we wont know until tomorrow morning.
Deletei think we'lll certainly see thunderstorms tomorrow but will they be severe or not still remains to be seen. Too much instability around to not see storms develop. Well we certainly will get our answers tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteJJ,
ReplyDeletedo you have online obs? I found St. vital obs @ http://www.mts.net/~dpatrick/. but it said it was David patricks obs.
No I don't have live temperature data Willy. The type of station I use for temperature is automatic, but does not allow me to connect to the internet.
DeleteAnd by the way, I will always post comments with this JJ C google + account. If you see a comment that isn't the account name I usually post as, someone is imitating me.
First 30°C here today though with a high of 30.2°C.
DeleteLooks like MCS potential came true this morning. Quite the line of storms approaching southwestern Manitoba at this time. Note that most models have the line weakening and dissipating quickly today... which would allow for redevelopment this afternoon... but just checking things now, will give my thoughts later this morning.
ReplyDeleteDiscussion on today's potential in thundercast... keep in mind this morning MCS will have to be monitored through the day because it certainly is that one thing that could impact things.
DeleteNot at all convinced Southern Manitoba will see severe weather today. Here's why: (1) That weakening MCS pushing towards the RRV is a significant concern. (2) Not gonna be enough daytime heating and clearing this afternoon that would allow to generate storm and supercell development. Not nearly as humid as of a day as was it was painted out to be today. Actually quite comfortable outside today with that stiff northeasterly breeze which explains why humidity levels are not as high which is also an issue. And last, capping may also be an issue as stated in the focn45 Weather discussion from E.C.
ReplyDeleteAnd in all, it's pretty much deja vu all over again.
Have some positivity, it's only 11am and that cloudcover is clearing quite fast. We still have a chance at storms later today, if we get sunshine I'm cheering for a good day...
DeletePerhaps, but we have seen this scenario quite frequently in the past and all resulted into a total bust and right now this one is going in that same path. Hard to be positive in a Province that doesn't see a whole lot of severe weather. As for that clearing, well it ain't gonna clear here in the RRV anytime soon as that weakening MCS is moving towards us and I've noticed that it's pretty cool in behind that MCS. In Melita it's only 15C with a strong northeast wind and in Brandon it's only 18C. Temps here will most certainly fall if we get the remnance of that MCS in the for of some rain and the question after that is, will it warmup enough after this MCS fizzles out. So, severe weather today definately not a given.
ReplyDeleteI share the same concerns but I'm not quite ready to call it a bust just yet personally. Dissapointing seeing the HRRR really decrease storm potential later today though.
DeleteThis province used to get a lot of severe weather from what I remember. I've lived here 14 years, and I don't remember it being this bad before 2011.
Yeah, and generally HRRR is pretty good with this stuff. I personally don't pay too much attention to these well advertised severe weather threats from days in advance because we live in MB and MB does not get experience these types of events especially in the last 2 years.
ReplyDeleteThe question that may never be answered because it cannot be answered is why has MB suddenly become a virtually thunderstorm free province in the last 2 years.....mind boggling.
With that said, I still believe that we will see some thunderstorms with heavy rain tonight but severe weather storms however, not sure about that. If some storms do become severe, i think they'll be elevated as opposed to surface based.
ReplyDeleteDewpoints, sure are elevated a bit. Dewpoints of 16C-17C across the province at this hour, so definately a dose of moisture is present.
Well one thing that could be a positive is the MCS from last night has finally collapsed in the Brandon to Pilot Mound area. Hopefully we can get some sun at some point this afternoon.
ReplyDelete