The coldest areas overnight were in the Interlake and east of the RRV and east of Lake Winnipeg where lows below -20°C were common. The coldest spot in southern Manitoba, according to Environment Canada's stations, was -24.4°C in Berens River. This broke their 105 year old record of -21.7°C in 1909. The following map shows some of the lows this morning along with the record lows which are according to Environment Canada:
There is the potential for a record low Thursday morning with a low around -13°C expected. Old record low is -13.3°C in 1953. Old record low maximum is also -3.3°C in 1953 which we will come close to as well.
Beyond that, a clipper system is possible for Saturday into Saturday night. It doesn't look overly significant, but some rain and snow are possible. It's too early to confirm amounts and dominant precipitation type.
Otherwise, some warmer weather is expected for the long weekend and into next week.
Another note: although we didn't break a record low maximum yesterday, the high of -6.4°C was the second coldest high on April 14 since 1872.
ReplyDeleteTop 3 coldest highs on April 14 since 1872:
1. -7.8°C in 1880
2. -6.4°C in 2014
3. -5.6°C in 1962
Jj This pattern of 2 cold snowy winters immediately following record Arctic Melts seems to be embedded. Winters of 07-08 And 08-09 and 12-13, and 13-14. It would seem that 77- 78, 78-79 and 95-96 and 96-97 might also qualify.
ReplyDeleteDo you know if there were peak melts in those years as well. 1979 and 1995 in addition to 2007 and 2012?
Don
Don, the link below includes a graph of sea ice extent since 1953 from the National Snow & Ice Data Center (you just have to scroll down a bit).
Deletehttp://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_ice.html
It does appear there were some minimums around 2011-2012, 2007-2008 and 1995-1996... but for 1977-1979 the extent wasn't overly anomalous. But overall, it is clear that the extent of sea ice is declining in general.
My question... is it the impact of peak anomalies in sea ice melt that produce the pattern regionally of two consecutive cold winter and springs immediately after. eg summer of 77 followed by cold winters in77/78 and -78/79
DeleteSame thing after 95 melt, 2007, and2012
Or is it a coincident.
I honestly cannot say for sure if there is a direct connection. There are theories that less sea ice means warmer conditions in the arctic which reduces the temperature gradient between the arctic and midlatitudes. The theory is that this weakens the jet stream and makes it more wavy.. so if you are under the trough portion of this meandering jet stream, watch out for very prolonged below normal temperatures. I found an article that sums up the theory pretty well:
Deletehttp://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2013/12/10/winter-2013-2014-sea-ice-loss-locks-jet-stream-into-severe-winter-storm-pattern-for-most-of-us/
Thanks Jj thats a good summary.
DeleteArgg.The last line should read " 1977 " and 1995 in addition
ReplyDeleteAt this point i really don't care about seeing above normal temps–all i need to be satisfyed is a normal day–when was the last time that happened? Seems like this winter whenever theirs a spirt of above normal temps, they only last a day or two–and it's been so cold that "normal" weather would actually seem quite warm. So if you can't get an extended period of above normal temps after temps after a cold spell, why not try normal? Over the past few years it's been all over the place–its either way above normal or way below. But that won't really change much.. over the next 50 years we'll just get more and more of that. that's all climate change is doing–it may be making the earth slowly warmer–but it'll also mean prolonged stretchs of either above or below normal temps. so their won't really be a "normal" any more. The above said, considering how long our last stretch of below normal temps has been, we're due for an extended period of above normal temps ;)
ReplyDeleteLeon
Even 5°C below normal seems good enough these days!
DeleteA very nice day ahead today reaching around 0°C and plenty of sun and light winds... Can't believe I'm calling a 10-12°C below normal day ''nice'' but that's the story of 2014 so far...
ReplyDeleteI'm forecasting a record low of -14°C tonight... so will be interesting to see how low we get tomorrow morning. Old record -13.3°C in 1953.
Saturday's system starting to look more like an early day scenario as opposed to a late day event. Precip type is fairly dependent on when the precip falls. I think any precip that falls in the afternoon would be mainly rain, but in the AM hours, especially overnight, some snow is possible. If we drop below zero there could be some ice pellets or freezing rain. Another messy system nonetheless. There's a wide spread of amounts in models right now so I won't give any specific amounts yet.
There's already consensus that a Colorado Low will develop mid-week next week around Wednesday-Thursday. This will definitely become something to watch as significant precipitation may occur... most likely rain, but that could still change.
Will be interesting to see how cold the Winnipeg airport gets overnight. All the short term guidance is going for lows around -17C or -18C by Thursday morning. If wind flow stays out of the northeast, that may save the airport from bottoming out that low, but if airport can get a light NW flow overnight, it may be enough to get down to that -17C mark. Using Barthrum temperature forecast table using T/TD values from this afternoon would yield a low of around -14C, so your forecast looks good. If the airport can get down to -15C tomorrow morning, it would be the latest such date on record to hit that mark in Winnipeg, going back to 1872.
DeleteI've noticed some models have been overdoing the lows in Winnipeg the last few days, another factor to why I chose to keep my forecast a little higher. Maybe tonight will be different, we'll see!
DeleteYeah good point JJ... I remember Monday the RAP model showed Temps bottoming out at -26, and it only reached -13. Now come to think there was a south east wind of the city tuesday morning, witch definetly held back temps. And as rob said tonight the wind probley stay out of north or north east –å much better settup for cold temps, but again like rob said a north west win would be ideal.
DeleteAs for the lack of snow cover at the airport, that also will moderate temps, however i do recall in this past early november (i think the morning of the 11) we managed to bottom out around -17 or 18... correct me if i'm wrong. if anyone new how high up the the weather station is that would help with forecasting to... if it where higher up then that warm released from ground may not reach it.
Well at least things are looking more springlike in the long range. Let's hope this becomes a change to a more persistent springlike pattern. Mother nature has a huge debt that she owes us and it's time she pays it.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it will be a very dramatic warmup to above normal temperatures, but it certainly is a return to more normal temperatures for this time of year which is fine with me! However, that major system mid week may drag some colder air late next week which may cool us off. Still far aways though!
DeleteNote that I'm still a little skeptical of that 14-15°C for Monday. I'm still thinking high single digits to low teens. We'll see I guess... Mid teens more likely on Tuesday.
Now that the winter snow pack should soon disappear, here's a reminder of the results from the snowdepth poll I had back in March:
ReplyDeleteQuestion was: '' When will the winter snow pack finally disappear (reach 0 cm) in Winnipeg? ''
Results:
10 votes for 3rd week of April (Apr 15-21)
7 votes for ''not until May''
5 votes for last week of April (Apr 22-30)
2 votes for 2nd week of April (Apr 8-14)
I'm calling the snow depth down to 1 cm at my place and should be gone very soon!
JJC, Do you know when you'll have time to update your st vital stats page? Don't have to rush it if you don't have time; its only for personal interested in comparing your temp to the airport. Thought it would be interesting to see the average difference between your temp and the airports...
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
I've been gathering other stats in the last few days so my st vital data update has lagged, but since you are interested, I'll have the data posted either tomorrow or Friday. Will let you know here once I've got them posted. Sorry for the wait!
DeleteOh thats fine, JJC. Take as much tim as you like.
DeleteSt vital data site and records books are now fully up to date.
DeleteOnly got down to -11°C so far at the airport, so no record broken this morning unless the temperature took a big brief drop after 7 am... so models really have been overdoing the lows this week, tonight really being the peak of that with lows some 5-7°C warmer than some expected, more than I was anticipating.
ReplyDeleteOfficial low -11.4°C... and with a high in the low single digits today, looks like we didn't break one single record in this cold spell, but we were consistently close!
ReplyDeleteYes, nowhere near as cold as models were projecting.. My guess is models are overdoing the snowpack in the Winnipeg area which is virtually gone now. Nonetheless, I thought we had a good shot at -14C this morning. Not complaining though. We really need to get a good thaw going now to unfreeze that ground!
DeleteYeah, I noticed the NAM at one point yesterday was fooled into thinking we had like 30 cm or so of snow on the ground. Certainly could have been a factor.
DeleteSt Vital data site has been updated with data up to today... note that there's a lot of missing temperature data from this past winter. For some reason, I'm still not sure if it's the temperature sensor itself or maybe it's the location, but the temperature readings I get in very cold weather in the winter are often way too warm... so I didn't bother trying to estimate.
ReplyDeleteThere's still a few more pages I need to update later today, like the year-to-year comparison graphs and the 2014 yearly summary page.
JJ, does this system for tomorrow night into Saturday still look like mainly a rain event for us in Winnipeg with decent accumulations possible?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
So far, it looks like mainly a rain event for Winnipeg, but it will be a VERY close call. Wouldn't be surprised if we saw some mixing or brief periods of straight snowfall at times... But either way, certainly turned into a major system. 10-20 mm of rainfall is possible here tomorrow night with 10-20 cm of snowfall to our north in the Interlake and Parkland regions. Note that precipitation may be quite heavy at times so locally higher totals not out of the question.
ReplyDelete