Monday, 18 August 2014

Enjoy the Warmth While it Lasts

     Turned out to be quite the thunderstorm event in the Winnipeg area last night. The south end of the city, especially south of Bishop Grandin, was hardest hit. Long-lived torrential downpours dumped 20-30 mm of rain to this part of the city in just 20 minutes or so. Lighter rainfall amounts in other parts of the city with generally 5-15 mm. Ongoing rains and lightning after the main storm dumped an additional 5 or so mm.

     Here at my place in River Park South, I received 26.7 mm in total last night. Only 11 mm fell at the airport. Here are a few rainfall totals from yesterday and overnight today:

Portage southeast (cocorahs) 38.1 mm
Portage (Mb Agriculture) 35.2 mm
Winnipeg South St Vital 25-35 mm in general
Carman 29.4 mm
St Adolphe 25.7 mm
Portage Southport 16.1 mm
Winnipeg The Forks ~ 15 mm
Winnipeg Charleswood 11 mm

     I've also got a brief video below just for the memories (nothing overly special)... not much visual, mainly audio. I managed to catch a couple impressive thunderclaps, the first was following a close cloud-to-ground strike which you can faintly see in the video. Note the torrential rain... it was heavy like that for perhaps 15 minutes in general.

     A few scattered showers are possible today. Another thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but nothing like what we saw last night. They will be more isolated in nature today. Due to cloud cover, we'll likely only reach low 20's.

     Enjoy the warmth tomorrow and Wednesday! Lots of sun tomorrow with a high around 26-28°C. A mix of sun and cloud for the first part of Wednesday with a high possibly reaching 30°C (depending on cloud coverage). Increasing cloud late in the day on Wednesday associated with an approaching system and cold front. Showers and thunderstorms look likely early on Thursday with this.

     At this point, it appears the active pattern continues into next weekend. Both the GFS and GEM models hint at a strong low pressure system affecting us Saturday-Sunday with the potential for a significant rainfall. However, note that the ECMWF is not so keen on this idea. As a result, still lots of uncertainty about next weekend. A significant cool down looks likely behind the system for early-mid next week. Too early to say how long it will last. Needless to say, enjoy the warmth while it lasts!

Sunday, 10 August 2014

Calmer Week Ahead

Storm on Friday morning
     Unless you live in central or northern parts of Winnipeg, last night's storms were a non-event. Only distant thunder and lightning could be seen and heard from south St Vital where the storms were basically a miss. Just 2.6 mm fell at my place. More like a general 4 to 11 mm for most of the remainder of the city, including 6.7 mm at the airport and 4.3 mm in Charleswood. Feel free to drop in some reports from your place in the comments below!

     Last night's storms were on top of the storms that went through the city Friday morning. 9.5 mm fell at the airport with those, bringing the 2-day total to 16.2 mm. Southern parts of the city haven't been as lucky with these latest events with just 8.7 mm at my place for the 2-day period.

     Calmer weather has returned as high pressure settles back in for the next few days. We'll see a mix of sun and cloud this afternoon in Winnipeg with a high around 22-23°C. A little bit sunnier tomorrow with a high around 23-24°C.

     Warmer conditions return for mid-week with highs around 26-29°C on Tuesday and Wednesday. The seasonal conditions continue for the remainder of the week. Things may become more unsettled next weekend, but that's still too far to guarantee.

     By the way, I will have the Winnipeg forecast evaluation sometime at the end of August.

Wednesday, 6 August 2014

Hot; Storm Chances

     A little cloudier and hazier for the RRV today, but we should still see lots of sun. Highs are a little tricky given the cloudier skies, but high 20's look likely. If we managed to stay sunny all day, it could even get close to 30°C.

     Hot conditions continue tomorrow with highs likely close to 30°C. There is a chance for some showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, including the morning. It will be a little humid as well, with humidex values in the mid 30's.

     Friday has the potential to be one of the hottest days this summer. Temperatures will likely push 30°C, possibly reaching as high as 32°C or so.  It will be humid with humidex values possibly reaching high 30's. Not all models are agreeing on it getting this hot on Friday, so I'll be sure to update in the comments if things start turning the other way.

     Another hot one on Saturday with temperatures exceeding 30°C. A stronger cold front moving in sometime Saturday night into early Sunday could bring our first organised round of thunderstorms in a long time. Severe activity would be possible. Cooler for Sunday behind the front, likely only reaching mid 20's or so.

Friday, 1 August 2014

Dry and Cool-ish July

     This past July was good news for anyone seeing flooding. Overall, drier than usual conditions helped to dry things out. In Winnipeg, just 25.4 mm fell at the airport, putting July at 14th driest since 1873. This marks the 4th top 15 driest July since 2006, continuing the trend of drier Julys in the last 8 years. The lack of significant thunderstorm activity is a factor. The greatest daily rainfall was just 8.1 mm on July 13, most of which was not associated with thunderstorm activity. The lack of nocturnal activity, of which Winnipeg is notorious for, was also notable. Only 1 thunderstorm event occurred after sunset, on July 13, but even that event was not significant. Only occasional lightning strikes occurred.

July continues cold streak


     At 1.0°C below the 1984-2013 average July mean of 19.5°C, July went down as the 10th consecutive month colder than the previous 30-year average. This streak began last October and has now become historical. It is not only the 4th longest streak of its kind since 1872, but also the longest cold streak since the 1880's.

# of consecutive below normal months
18 months
Dec 1882-May 1884
14 months
Jul 1884-Aug 1885
11 months
Oct 1887-Aug 1888
10 months
Oct 2013-Jul 2014
9 months
1949/50, 2008/09 & 2012/13

     Two days were particularly cold: July 1 and 13. Canada Day featured a mean temperature of just 13.1°C, the 8th coldest July 1st since 1873. On July 13, the high was just a measly 15.7°C thanks to afternoon and evening rains. This broke the old record low maximum of 16.7°C in 1884 and 1950.

Funnel clouds & tornadoes


Funnel cloud near Oak Bluff July 5
     Although the month was pretty dull overall storm-wise, there were a few thunderstorm events that brought some close calls to the Winnipeg area. On July 5, thunderstorms developed west of the city and moved east into and just south of the city in the afternoon. A few funnel clouds were reported with these storms. One of these occurred near Oak Bluff just minutes before the storm hit Winnipeg. The funnel reached at least half way to the ground before dissipating. Tornado warnings were issued for Winnipeg and the surrounding area, but luckily nothing touched down. This was also the hottest day of the month with a high of 31.9°C at Winnipeg airport with a maximum humidex of 40.5. Severe thunderstorms had also occurred in southwestern Manitoba in the evening. Hail up to baseball sized occurred. A tornado might have also occurred near Hartney. Wind gusts to 131 km/h were also recorded in Pilot Mound.

     Cold core funnel clouds and weak tornadoes were the story of July 26. One of these occurred just south of the Perimeter near La Salle. It was confirmed as a tornado by Environment Canada. 2 other tornadoes were also confirmed near Waterhen in the Interlake. Other funnel clouds also occurred, such as west of Portage.

Storm east of Brandon July 26
Brandon flooding July 27