Monday, 26 January 2015

Enjoy the Mild Conditions While They Last...

A very mild start to the day today in Winnipeg... Temperatures rose to +2°C overnight with a high of 2.1°C here in South St Vital and also at the airport. There was even a bit of rain around 5 am. Unfortunately, a brisk northwest wind this morning will usher in some colder air, dropping temperatures to the mid minus single digits for the afternoon. Winds will calm somewhat this afternoon.

Another mild one tomorrow with temperatures above zero. Unfortunately, it does look a little cloudier than we would like. There may be a few breaks in the cloud at times though.

Unfortunately, the weather pattern takes a turn beginning Wednesday. Northerly winds will gradually bring some colder air back into the region. There will also be a chance of some snow throughout the day, but I'm not expecting major accumulations if we do get snow.

Temperatures really take a plunge beginning on Thursday. Some models do hint at a brief warmup on the weekend, but below normal temperatures should be dominant through to next week. Some -30°C lows cannot be ruled out on the coldest nights.

Thursday, 22 January 2015

Very Mild... Snow Possible on the Weekend

A significant warmup begins today in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will exceed the freezing mark in many locations, including Winnipeg, this afternoon. Unfortunately, it will remain quite cloudy with possibly just a few holes in the cloud. It will also be quite windy from the south with gusts as high as 60 km/h this morning and afternoon.

Temperatures wont fall much at all tonight with a low not far from 0°C. Another warm one tomorrow with a high above zero again. Unfortunately, it looks like we may stay on the cloudy side with just a few breaks in the cloud possible.

Staying mild for Saturday. However, a slightly stronger clipper system could bring some accumulative snow on Saturday into Saturday night. It will be a quick system so a quick 2-5 cm is possible. Will update in the comments if things change...

NAM simulated radar for 6pm Saturday, showing the forecast snows in southern Manitoba

Brief cool down for Sunday before we get back into the warmth until Wednesday.

Unfortunately, it is becoming more apparent that a more major cool down might begin by Thursday (29th). Frigid temperatures may greet us into February. However, I am not yet convinced this cool down will last terribly long. As usual, will keep you up to date.

Thursday, 15 January 2015

More Snow

After about 2 or 3 cm of snow in Winnipeg yesterday, more snow is on the way in the next few days. Temperatures will remain generally mild, but brief pushes of colder air will exist.

First, some light snow is expected today. No significant accumulation is expected however. Temperatures will gradually fall through the day as colder air is advected in. Chillier night tonight, possibly dipping around -20°C.

Once again tomorrow, the afternoon will be chilly and the high wont be reached until late in the evening. There will be a stiff south wind down the valley once again, making it feel even colder.

Unfortunately, there is good agreement that we'll be seeing another clipper system on Saturday with periods of snow beginning sometime tomorrow night and tapering off sometime Saturday. There is less agreement on snowfall amounts though, but 2-5 cm looks like a good range right now. Will update in the comments below if things change. Breezy north-northwest winds will develop Saturday morning and afternoon, giving drifting and blowing snow in open areas, especially outside the city. Temperatures will be mild on Saturday despite the snow.

Some slightly colder air pushes in Sunday. Next week is a little uncertain at this time. A clipper system or two might bring a chance for some snow. After a mild start to the week, we might cool down later in the week.

Saturday, 10 January 2015

Warming Up a Bit

After a generally miserable 2 weeks (if you dislike the extreme cold), things look to warm up a bit next week. First, we just have to get through a couple more days of much colder than normal conditions.

For today, we will struggle to exceed -20°C under sunny skies. Winds will be light. Very similar tomorrow.

A core of frigid arctic air moves over tomorrow night into early Monday. Lows in the -30's are likely Monday morning as a consequence. Despite a southerly wind developing in the afternoon, we will once again barely exceed -20°C. Things warm up slightly for mid week, likely only bringing us closer to normal values. After one last push of colder air Thursday, it looks like we might see more significant warming for next weekend. The Canadian and European models both hint at temperatures getting close to the freezing mark. I don't expect this warmup to last extremely long. There are hints of cooling down again late January.

As for snowfall, no significant systems are expected for the next couple weeks right now. A few weak clippers may bring some light snow at times, but nothing major. There could be a bit of snow on Thursday for instance.

I apologize for the lack of updates, but my focus until spring will be on my studies. Updates will be posted here and there over the next couple months. This blog should become more active again in the warmer months. Monthly summaries will continue to be posted as per usual.