Friday, 12 September 2014

Worst of The Cold Now Exiting

     It has been a very chilly past few days across the Prairies with temperatures some 5 to 15°C colder than normal for this time of year. At least for us here in Manitoba, we can be thankful we didn't get the cold and snow Alberta received. Calgary Int'l Airport's 28.2 cm of snow this past week puts this September as 7th snowiest since 1884 so far. Highs struggled to exceed the freezing mark on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thankfully, here in Winnipeg those types of temperatures were only at night; during the day we managed to reach low teens, still almost 10°C  below normal however. Thanks to cloud cover, we also managed to escape any frost this week around Winnipeg. Areas west and southeast of the city were not as lucky this morning, where temperatures dipped below freezing in the Carberry, Carman, Winkler and Steinbach regions.

     Despite the cold, it was still a fabulous evening today. I managed to capture a nice picture from Henteleff Park in south Winnipeg, seen above. I like to call the park a hidden gem because not too many people actually know about the park and it has limited access.

     A slow warmup is expected for the next few days. A low pressure system moving into southern Manitoba tomorrow will help to usher in some warmer conditions. Unfortunately, cloud cover and scattered shower activity will likely prevent us from seeing temperatures rise too much. We'll likely only reach around 14-16°C, perhaps 17°C if we get some sunny breaks. Cooler on Sunday behind the system, only reaching low teens again.

     Sunshine and warmer weather return on Monday. We should manage to reach high teens, potentially as high as 18-19°C.

     After a brief cool down mid week, early indications point to a more prolonged period of warmer weather late week into next weekend. Highs in the 20's look likely at this time. There might be some chances for rain however, so it wont necessarily be full sunshine at all times.

Tuesday, 9 September 2014

Frost Possible Friday Morning

     An early fall reality has set in for southern Manitobans. Highs over the next few days will be a good 10°C below normal for this time of year.

     However, keep in mind we aren't having it as bad as in Alberta. 11.8 cm of snow fell in Calgary yesterday as afternoon temperatures hovered near 0°C. An additional 10-20 cm is expected tonight and tomorrow in the area! Highs will struggle to exceed much above the freezing mark today there.

     Here in Winnipeg, we'll only reach about 10-11°C today, which sounds relatively balmy compared to out west. However, this will bring us quite close to the old record low maximum of 10.6°C in 1878 today. Will let you all know in the comments below this evening wether we broke the record or not. There could be a few breaks in the cloud this afternoon which could ruin the chance for a record if they do occur.

     For tomorrow, very similar to today, except there will be a little bit more sun. Only expecting to reach around 10-11°C once again. Very similar on Thursday, except with once again a little bit more sun.

     Frost isn't extremely likely tonight and tomorrow night. However, frost may be possible Friday morning. With clearing skies and lighter winds, temperatures could drop into the -1°C to +1°C outside the city and in the outskirts of the city. Patchy frost could be possible as a result. The potential will be clearer by Thursday. Within city limits in Winnipeg, frost should not be as big a worry due to the heat island effect which should keep our temperatures a few degrees warmer, especially close to downtown.

Monday, 1 September 2014

August Ends Historical 10-Month Cold Streak in Winnipeg



     It's official, the cold streak has finally ended (for now)! At 0.5°C above the previous 30-year (1984-2013) average mean temperature of 18.7°C, August was the first month since September last year to finish warmer than the previous 30-year average. This 10-month cold streak from October 2013 to July 2014 was the 4th longest on record and the longest streak of its kind since an 11-month streak in 1887-1888. The following table summarizes the cold streak by showing how much each month deviated from the previous 30-year average. A list of notable events and stats are also included.

Month
Deviation from previous 30-year average mean temperature
Notable events
September 2013
+2.5
October 2013
-0.6

November 2013
-1.1
December 2013
-7.4
January 2014
-3.8
February 2014
-6.4
March 2014
-6.8
April 2014
-4.1
May 2014
-0.1

June 2014
-0.1

July 2014
-1.0
August 2014
+0.5


     Despite being slightly above normal, only 2 days reached 30°C in August, below the normal of 5 days. So far this year, we have seen 7 days over 30°C, below the normal of 13 days up to now.

Moist, stormy August


     With an average dew point temperature of 14.4°C, August 2014 had the 4th highest average dew point in August on record since 1953 and the highest since 2010 when the average dewpoint temperature was 14.9°C. 24 days saw dew point temperatures over 15°C, well above the normal of 18 days.

Thunderstorm near Warren, Mb, August 24
     Rainfall during the second half of the month was the biggest story of August. During the last 2 weeks of the month, generally 85 to 150 mm of rain fell over the Winnipeg area. The biggest rainfall events occurred on the 21st and 29th, associated with thunderstorm activity. On the 21st, a stationary storm over the city in the evening dumped 50-100 mm of rain from downtown to Whyte Ridge causing significant street and overland flooding. On the 29th, training thunderstorms in the morning south of the city dumped 50-100 mm of rain again, this time in the Niverville to Steinbach regions. Remarkably, much of this rain fell in just half an hour.

     In total, 104.4 mm of rain fell at the airport in August, the first wetter than normal August since 2010 and the 23rd wettest August since 1873. Higher totals fell in other areas, including: 110.7 mm in south St Vital, 137.2 mm in Charleswood, ~142 mm at The Forks and locally over 160 mm in the Lindenwoods area. There were also 6 thunderstorm days, bang on normal.

Wednesday, 27 August 2014

Warmer; Some Storm Chances

     Nothing but sun in the RRV today. I'm expecting a high around 23-24°C in Winnipeg. Warmer night tonight with lows in the low teens. Much better than the 7.9°C low this morning at the airport.

     The sun continues tomorrow as temperatures reach high 20's. Highs around 27-28°C look likely for Winnipeg. There will be a risk for thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba in the evening as a cold front approaches. An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out there.

     A cloudy start to Friday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front. Skies should clear for the afternoon, but it will be cooler behind the front with highs only in the low 20's.

     Looks like we will warmup already for Saturday with highs in the mid 20's. Another cold front moves into southwestern Manitoba late in the day which could bring some more thunderstorm activity to the area. Again, isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out closer to the Saskatchewan border. That front will pass through the RRV on Sunday bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms again.