Sunday, 30 November 2014

Some Changes (Possibly Temporary) to This Blog

     I'm afraid I will no longer be making daily forecasts on this blog for the time being. There's a lot going on in my life right now and I needed to let something go. What will stop is forecast posts such as the last few posts, and the daily Winnipeg forecast tab. This may return in the spring when university is finished.

     Nonetheless, the monthly summaries will continue to be posted, as well as the Canada t-storm season summary in a couple weeks and the top 10 weather events series at the end of December/beginning of January. In other words, this blog will become focused on stats for the time being. I may still occasionally post some storm summaries as well (maps of snowfall totals for example).

     If ever you have any questions about the forecast, feel free to ask in the comments and I'll gladly answer.

Friday, 28 November 2014

Snow Tonight; -30's Possible Monday Morning

     A system moving through Manitoba tonight will bring possibly our biggest snowfall of the season so far in Winnipeg. A few flurries may fall this morning, but the main snows will begin later in the afternoon, be most intense overnight tonight, and end sometime in the morning or midday tomorrow. 4-8 cm is expected. Breezy conditions tomorrow will create blowing and drifting snow in open areas. After reaching our high in the morning, temperatures will plummet to the mid minus teens in the afternoon.

     Unfortunately, it appears our coldest air of the season so far is headed for Sunday-Monday. After dipping well into the mid -20's Sunday morning, we may not even exceed -20°C for a high in the afternoon. Monday morning may be our coldest so far this year with lows in the -30's likely... And I do think the chance for -30°C is better than a few days ago. I wouldn't be surprised to see some lows around -31 to -33°C in the RRV and southeastern Manitoba.

     There is a glimmer of hope by the second week of December right now. Models are in good agreement right now that the cold will be letting up, giving way to more normal or even slightly above normal conditions for at least a few days. The NAEFS has switched to more above normal right now as well. However, this is still pretty far away and so, we'll just have to wait and see if this comes true. It is possible this may just be a few days warmup and nothing that would last long.

Tuesday, 25 November 2014

Downright Frigid; Snow Chances

     A fairly cloudy day today across southern Manitoba. There will be a chance of some light snow in Winnipeg, but the bulk of the snow will stay to our south and west. A few cm may fall in the southwestern corner of the province.

     Clouds are expected to clear sometime this evening or early overnight. This, combined with light winds and the coldest air mass of the season moving in will allow for the coldest temperatures since March. A low around -25 to -27°C is expected in Winnipeg tomorrow morning. As for a high, we'll likely only reach around -17°C or so, but it will be sunny. Another frigid night tomorrow night. Winds become southerly early in the morning on Thursday, therefore, it's hard to say how much of an impact that will have on the airport's low as wind comes from the city. Nonetheless, lows around -27 to -30°C are possible around the Winnipeg area. Yes, there could be a couple -30°C readings in parts of southern Manitoba. Just incredible for this time of year....

     Next chance for snow is late in the day on Thursday into early Friday. However, models are hinting that this system may end up similar to today's, with the bulk of the snow staying to our south and west. Another system for Friday night into Saturday. Some models are keeping this system mainly to our north, so snow accumulations in Winnipeg are still in question. Much colder air, similar to this week's, is expected to push in behind Saturday's system for Sunday.

Saturday, 22 November 2014

Freezing Rain Possible Tonight; Major Cool Down Coming

     Some light snow will continue this morning with little accumulation. Overall, a mild day with a high near 0°C to 1°C. The high may not actually be reached until evening however.

     Clipper system begins moving in tonight. A period of showers, freezing rain or ice pellets looks likely later in the evening and overnight. Not expecting much accumulation, but this will definitely make roads quite slick.

     Periods of snow will begin sometime around midday tomorrow and continue until early Monday. Temperatures will plummet tomorrow afternoon along with this snow, dipping into the mid minus teens by Monday morning. Strong northwest winds will create blowing and drifting snow both tomorrow and Monday. As for snowfall totals, 3-6 cm looks like a good range for Winnipeg right now, but will update in the comments if that changes.

     We'll struggle to exceed -10°C on Monday. Skies should clear in the afternoon or late day.

     The core of the cold air does not reach us until Wednesday-Thursday. Absolutely dreadful temperatures are expected late week with highs in the mid minus teens and lows well into the -20's likely... Cold even by January standards and at least 10°C below normal for late November.

Monday, 17 November 2014

Cold; Some More Snow

     It's beginning to not only feel like winter, but look it as well after about 3 cm of snow yesterday in Winnipeg. Some light flurry activity remains downwind of the lakes this morning. We will not warm much today with a high only around -9°C, a good 8°C or so below normal.

     Our next chance for more snow accumulation will be tomorrow night as a weak disturbance moves through. Not expecting much accumulation with this one with maybe 1-2 cm at most from Tuesday evening to Wednesday afternoon. In addition, strong northwest winds on Wednesday will produce blowing and drifting snow.

     A push of colder air will arrive for Thursday. If we get enough clearing, lows approaching -20°C cannot be ruled out Thursday morning. We'll likely only reach high minus teens (around -11°C or so) Thursday afternoon. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel... A warmup is expected to begin Friday. However, this may come with a chance for more snowfall this weekend (too early to confirm). Nonetheless, it is nice to see more seasonal temperatures in the forecast for the end of November and possibly into early December.

     Note that the temperatures we have been seeing the last week will be considered normal by the first week of December.

Tuesday, 11 November 2014

First Snowfall Accumulation of The Season

     Lake-enhanced snow last night provided our first accumulative snowfall of the season in Winnipeg. Generally, about 1 cm fell, the first accumulation since late April. This ties as 14th latest first accumulative snowfall of the fall season, since 1872. The latest first snowfall accumulation was on November 21, 1963. The fall of 1963 just so happened to feature both the warmest fall and warmest October on record.

     More snow is on the way tonight and tomorrow. Snow should begin sometime around late afternoon or in the evening and continue through at least the morning tomorrow. More scattered light flurry activity may continue through the afternoon. Generally 2-5 cm is expected.

     Any sign of warmer weather is still extremely far on the horizon. Overnight lows in the minus teens and highs in the minus single digits are expected through the remainder of the week. An enhanced push of colder air this coming weekend will make it difficult to exceed -10°C for a couple days early next week.

Wednesday, 5 November 2014

Winter Begins Soon

     I'd encourage everyone to enjoy the snow-free ground while it lasts! Winter will begin in just a couple days!

     For today and tomorrow, unfortunately, it will be fairly cloudy and highs will remain in the low single digits. Overnight lows for tonight depend on how much clearing we will see. If we manage to see enough clearing, then lows in the -5 to -8°C range cannot be ruled out. Warmer if we stay cloudy.

     An active and colder pattern begins on Friday. It appears likely we'll see some precipitation in the overnight and morning hours, but precipitation type is in question. At this point, it appears it may begin as a wet snow overnight before switching primarily to rain by morning. As a result, we shouldn't see much snow accumulation, or if we do, it should melt during the day on Friday. After all, we are expected to reach around 6°C or so in the afternoon before colder air moves in late day. Flurries will be possible behind the system late Friday and again on Saturday, but with little accumulation. (To me, this looks like the most likely scenario for Friday, but there could definitely be changes. Will have updates in the comments below as usual).

     A series of systems Saturday night through Monday could bring some accumulative snow to southern Manitoba. However, models have been flip flopping and are not agreeing on how far north the snows will push. For now, just keep in mind snow will be possible, and I'll update in the next few days.