A fairly cloudy day today across southern Manitoba. There will be a chance of some light snow in Winnipeg, but the bulk of the snow will stay to our south and west. A few cm may fall in the southwestern corner of the province.
Clouds are expected to clear sometime this evening or early overnight. This, combined with light winds and the coldest air mass of the season moving in will allow for the coldest temperatures since March. A low around -25 to -27°C is expected in Winnipeg tomorrow morning. As for a high, we'll likely only reach around -17°C or so, but it will be sunny. Another frigid night tomorrow night. Winds become southerly early in the morning on Thursday, therefore, it's hard to say how much of an impact that will have on the airport's low as wind comes from the city. Nonetheless, lows around -27 to -30°C are possible around the Winnipeg area. Yes, there could be a couple -30°C readings in parts of southern Manitoba. Just incredible for this time of year....
Next chance for snow is late in the day on Thursday into early Friday. However, models are hinting that this system may end up similar to today's, with the bulk of the snow staying to our south and west. Another system for Friday night into Saturday. Some models are keeping this system mainly to our north, so snow accumulations in Winnipeg are still in question. Much colder air, similar to this week's, is expected to push in behind Saturday's system for Sunday.
Too early.. way too early.
ReplyDeleteAfter last year's nonsense, I was hoping we'd be getting a break this winter. I know it's early and things can change, but it's not a good sign when we're already getting to the minus 30 range two weeks earlier than last winter. And we don't even have much snow cover to protect a deep freeze into the ground which is the last thing we need after last year.. Sure hope the pattern eases up over the next month or so, but we're not off to a good start..
At this point, even a winter that is 2 or 3°C below normal would be welcomed instead of last year's nearly 6°C below normal... Nonetheless, wouldn't be surprised if this turns into a 2-consecutive very cold winter streak similar to 1935-36/1936-37, 1977-78/1978-79 and 1995-96/1996-97 for example. Seems these very cold winters sometimes come in pairs.
DeleteThe next few days will possibly be the coldest November days since 1985. Curious to see if we manage to reach -30°C Thursday morning too because we haven't done so in November since 1985 neither.
Wow.. possibly our first -30C in November since 1985 (29 years ago). Not a stat I like to hear, but interesting nonetheless. What irks me is that the planet is setting all kinds of records for warmth, and yet here we are getting cold we haven't seen in decades!
DeleteThe analog winters I've seen being mentioned for this winter are 1976-77 and 1995-96.. which were very cold across central and eastern NA dominated by blocking ridge along the West Coast up to Alaska. That leaves us in the deep Arctic trof with reinforcement from teleconnections to Siberia. Not good. That would mean prolonged below normal temperatures for us through the winter with a stormy snowy pattern for the Great Lakes and eastern US along the storm track, perhaps below normal snow for us as we stay locked in frigid but dry Arctic airmasses (i.e. cold and boring). Sure hope it doesn't work out that way.. but early indications are the pattern may be setting up like that.
So much for an El Nino winter.
ReplyDeleteFrom what I've heard, it's turned more into a weak el nino scenario for this winter, so its effects are much more blurred for us. Nonetheless, things can still change this far out, but I wouldn't get my hopes up.
DeleteUnbelievable, low of -29.6°C at the airport this morning. Didn't think we'd get this low this morning, which makes me worried about how cold we'll get tomorrow morning considering it was forecast to be the coldest morning! Nonetheless, this is now officially the coldest we've been this early in the year since 1996 (we dipped to -29.7°C on Nov 25, 1996). Potential for -30°C appears very real for tonight which would be the coldest since 1985 as already mentioned.
ReplyDeleteChance for snow for Friday-Saturday looking better this morning. Wouldn't surprise me if we got a good 5 cm on both days combined.
At this point, lets welcome the snow since having this little of a cover and these frigid temps is very bad for freezing pipes, crops, etc (if pipes still froze last year with a deeper snow pack I'd hate to see what this cold will do with hardly any snow pack!). Snow in winter is a good thing, even if it inconveniences us!
ReplyDeleteOnly reached -19.3°C at the airport today, the coldest daytime high in November since 1985.
ReplyDeleteJJCold but sunny. I was just patting myself on the back about this prediction of a cold winter when i remembered I also earlier predicted a much warmer Jan thru March and april. Seems i cant lose. I must practise the humble" told you"
ReplyDeleteJj Have we established a new November record for Barometric pressure. Or is my conversion calculation wet behind the ears.
ReplyDeleteI'll find out where we stand in terms of pressure this month so far either early this afternoon or tomorrow depending on when I have the opportunity.
DeleteThe average station-level pressure reading up to midnight last night for the month of November has been 98.66, which is actually almost exactly at normal... In addition, the max reading of about 100.6 kPa yesterday was only about the normal November maximum. We cannot use average November pressure to determine how cold this winter will be.
DeleteLow of -29.5°C at the airport overnight. Starting a little warmer this morning thanks to those southerly winds off the city. Coldest in the south end this morning around -28°C at my place...
ReplyDeleteIncreasing cloud this afternoon with chance of flurries this evening. Some light snow possible overnight, but I'm not expecting much accumulation for Winnipeg. Main snow for us looks to be tomorrow night into early Saturday with 3-6 cm possible. Brisk northwest wind and plummeting temperatures for Saturday afternoon... Back to extreme cold Sunday and Monday with morning lows well into the -20's again.