For today and tomorrow, unfortunately, it will be fairly cloudy and highs will remain in the low single digits. Overnight lows for tonight depend on how much clearing we will see. If we manage to see enough clearing, then lows in the -5 to -8°C range cannot be ruled out. Warmer if we stay cloudy.
An active and colder pattern begins on Friday. It appears likely we'll see some precipitation in the overnight and morning hours, but precipitation type is in question. At this point, it appears it may begin as a wet snow overnight before switching primarily to rain by morning. As a result, we shouldn't see much snow accumulation, or if we do, it should melt during the day on Friday. After all, we are expected to reach around 6°C or so in the afternoon before colder air moves in late day. Flurries will be possible behind the system late Friday and again on Saturday, but with little accumulation. (To me, this looks like the most likely scenario for Friday, but there could definitely be changes. Will have updates in the comments below as usual).
A series of systems Saturday night through Monday could bring some accumulative snow to southern Manitoba. However, models have been flip flopping and are not agreeing on how far north the snows will push. For now, just keep in mind snow will be possible, and I'll update in the next few days.
Very cold conditions are expected to continue throughout the week next week as a huge dip in the jet stream dominates central and eastern North America. Just how cold we will be however, will somewhat depend on if we manage to get a snowcover with these next few systems. Nonetheless, lows well into the minus teens cannot be ruled out on the coldest nights next week.
Fortunately, clouds did not clear overnight, stabilizing temperatures.
ReplyDeleteAlso fortunately, still looks like a dominant rain event for tomorrow, with rain beginning overnight and tapering off midday. Could be mixed with snow when the precipitation begins overnight, but should quickly become mainly rain. A good 4-8 mm can't be ruled out. Showers and flurries remain possible in the afternoon and evening, most likely flurries if it's in the late afternoon and evening. Some models, such as the GFS, are more agressive with this late day potential, so can't rule out a light snowfall accumulation. It will be very windy, out of the south to start, then becoming northwest in the afternoon 40-50 km/h and gusting 60-80 km/h.
More good news, consensus right now is that the bulk of the precipitation this weekend will go around us to the south. We could still see some light flurries at times, but a snowstorm looks unlikely so far. Hopefully this stays true.
Very strong southerly this morning.... Will veer to northwesterly just after noon with much colder air beginning to make its way down. Will likely see some more rain with this front this afternoon, and perhaps with some snow later in the day if precipitation is still falling behind the front.
ReplyDeletePersistent northwesterlies through the weekend and next week. Some snow looks possible in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe with a dusting to couple cm possible. Will confirm closer to the event. Highs around -1°C tomorrow, -3°C or so Sunday and even a few degrees colder for Monday.
Unfortunately, I don't see any signs of returning to a more extended above normal period anytime soon. Looks like we've really made the turnaround to winter. I just sure hope this isn't the start of another extended below normal streak...
Winds have now veered to northwesterly and temperatures are beginning to drop slightly after our high of about 7°C. It's all downhill from here!
DeleteClearer skies overnight allowed for temperatures to plummet to -9.6°C at the airport. Cloud with holes of clearer skies will make night forecasts tricky for the next few days. Lows below -10°C possible when skies clear, likely a tad milder with cloud. Still looks like some light snow possible mid week with a dusting to 2 cm not out of the question.
ReplyDeleteIs the snow over Winnipeg this morning lake effect flurries with the NW flow or is it just a little disturbance ??
ReplyDeleteIt appears to be lake-effect with a weak streamer coming off Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipegosis. Thank goodness these bands are weak...
DeleteWe'll continue to see a few snowflakes come down through at least the morning. Might continue in the afternoon or it might taper off. Very little to no accumulation expected, so we get to continue our snow-free ground.
ReplyDeleteWill likely drop into the minus teens again tonight, especially if we get the clearing that is expected. Weak wave of light snow possible later on Tuesday into Wednesday with a dusting to 1 cm.
No end to the cold and below normal conditions in sight. The arctic air just keeps funnelling down like a conveyor belt for the foerseeable future. In fact, it looks like we may even get a reinforced shot of colder air on the weekend which will make it difficult to exceed -10°C for highs this next weekend into early next week.
Pretty impressive cold temperatures considering the lack of a snowcover!
DeletePretty impressive how long this cool down will last... Especially for November. It's like we went from October to December with no November in between. Also surprising we have escaped any snowstorms with this cold snap. Often you'd expect a snowstorm preceding the cool down in November! Not that I'm complaining!
DeleteIs it just me or does it feel a bit depressing to have it this cold but no snow? Would be like if it was very warm out but there was still snow on the ground that wouldn't melt! Question is would it be even colder if there was snow right now?
ReplyDeleteIt likely would be even colder if there was snow on the ground. Note how we're actually doing a lot better than people to our west which have had some recent snowstorms. They're expecting lows well into the -20's in Alberta this week.
DeleteIt might be depressing to some people that we have no snow... I'm actually very happy about no snow. I'm still commuting by bike because of the lack of snow so I'm pretty happy about that.
For that, I like it too since I also commute by bike to work and are glad I can still do that! Also makes it easier doing other things outdoors. On the flipside the landscape just has this barren wasteland feel to it when everything is dead and cold and there isn't snow to cover it all up! Comparable to Mars lol
DeleteBeginning to look like our snowfree ground will get eliminated by these nuisance lake effect snow bands over the next few days.
ReplyDeleteAs long as the main bands stay to our west, the snow shouldn't accumulate much, if at all, in Winnipeg. However, a weak disturbance could bring some snow tomorrow night and Wednesday with a light accumulation - possibly 1-2 cm.
DeleteWhat was Winnipegs (airport) last recorded thunderstorm day this year?
ReplyDeleteSeptember 8 was the last thunderstorm day at the airport this year (tied 10th earliest ending since 1953) with distant lightning reported October 12 (not considered a thunderstorm day however). This puts the thunderstorm season at 112 days long, or 5th shortest thunderstorm season since 1953.
DeleteHowever, there were thunderstorms around the city September 19 & 20, and October 12 & 22.
Lake effect band off Lake Winnipeg may clip Winnipeg through the night as winds veer to more north-northeasterly, especially eastern sections of the city. Light accumulation possible wherever the band ends up.
ReplyDelete